NEW FACETS OF WAR

The central event that had a major impact on the development of military and political processes around Ukraine recently was the Russian President Vladimir Putin's statement made on September 21, 2022 about partial mobilisation and the possibility of Moscow using nuclear weapons.

In his televised address to the nation, the Russian leader did not rule out the possibility that Moscow might use nuclear deterrence if war were to continue and the West were to pose an existential threat to Russia. In doing so, the Russian president once again identified the US-led NATO military-political bloc as Russia’s main adversary and said that he was not bluffing about the possibility of using nuclear weapons.

Mobilisation as a factor

Mobilisation in Russia amid Ukraine's successful counter-offensive may indicate a shortage of Russian servicemen to carry out their missions and serious losses in the Russian army. Russian media report on mass outflow of Russian nationals to the neighbouring and visa-free countries, which indicates a growing anti-war sentiment among potential conscripts. Field reports indicate that there is a large number of those wishing to leave the country by road as well.

It seems the Russian population was not prepared for such a turn of events. Most people are seriously concerned about the possibility of being in a war zone. There is also a growing protest sentiment among the people critical of Russia's involvement in the war in Ukraine. While earlier Russians saw the situation as a large-scale but still specific military campaign involving professional military personnel, today there are talks about a real war in which every Russian citizen with military training is at risk. That is hundreds of thousands of people all over the country.

President Putin himself said explicitly that Russia was not at war with Ukraine, but with the collective West. And since this is a war, the measures taken by the Russian leadership to increase the numbers of reservists are interpreted as an aftermath of circumstances dictated by the war.

Meanwhile, the protracted hostilities in Ukraine are far from over. A front line spans more than a thousand kilometres and may be destroyed by the Ukrainian counter-offensive units in several places at once. New reservists are supposed to ensure the manning of the Russian army to strengthen the defence line.

However, it is not as simple as it sounds. It is physically impossible to deploy all the new conscripts in a short period. In addition, they still have to get necessary training in contemporary circumstances. This, too, may take more than a month. Deploying unprepared soldiers to the front line means exposing them to the risk of being killed in the short term, which is also fraught with negative social consequences. In addition, it is difficult to explain them that they were defending the country's borders when in fact they are hundreds of kilometres to the east.

Cost of referendums

Perhaps this is why the authorities of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics and Russian-controlled territories of Kherson and Zaporozhye regions announced referendums on joining Russia. In his September 21 address, Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would support "a decision on its future which the majority of residents of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics and the regions of Zaporozhye and Kherson regions will accept". Thus, according to the plans of the Russian leadership, if the Moscow-controlled Ukrainian territories are accepted into Russia, the Kremlin may consider the actions of the Ukrainian army to liberate them as an encroachment on the territorial integrity of Russia. This could provide a formal pretext to declare war on Ukraine and justify the involvement of more Russian citizens in the military campaign. That’s how the Russian authorities may find a pretext for the full, not partial, mobilisation in the future.

Notably, the leader of allied Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has explicitly stated that he does not consider mobilisation, nor does he consider getting Belarus involved in the war. "We will fight only when we have to defend our home, our land," he added. Thus, he made it clear that there are clear red lines for Minsk, and he remains committed to these principles to the end. This suggests that the most tense moments of the war are yet to come, and further escalation of the situation seems inevitable.

The likelihood of a war involving means of mass destruction is increasing. And the tightening of Western policy towards Moscow's actions only raises the stakes. For example, according to the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell at the end of the informal meeting of foreign ministers in New York, EU promises a new package of anti-Russian sanctions for the referendums in Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson. "Additional restrictive measures against Russia will be introduced immediately, as soon as possible in coordination with our partners," Borrell said. However, according to European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson, the sanctions will not yet affect energy resources. EU member states have been striving for weeks to agree on imposing price caps on Russian oil. However, some key EU players oppose this, including Germany.

Berlin's argument is that if a price cap is introduced only in the EU, without all other global consumers, then gas will go to other buyers and there could be a shortage or reduction in supply levels in the EU.

Even so, the scale of the planned sanctions is expected to have a tangible impact on the struggling Russian economy. Thus, the Russian stock market reacted to the news of the referendum with the biggest collapse since the war. On September 20, the Moscow Stock Exchange and the RTS index dropped by 10.7% and 10.5%, respectively. The shares of Sberbank, LUKOil, Gazprom, Yandex, and Nornickel lost 5.35%, 9%, 8%, 8.9% and 2%, respectively. On the same day, Armenia, Russia's EAEU ally, stopped servicing Mir cards. Before Armenia, major banks in Turkey and Kazakhstan refused to accept Mir cards as well.

Mediation still relevant

Another noteworthy event of these days was perhaps the largest prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine in months led by the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The move showed the relevance of mediation, albeit not in all, but still very sensitive topics. "The prisoner exchange mediated by Turkey is an important step towards ending the war. As part of the exchange, Russia received 50 prisoners, including former MP and leader of the Ukrainian Choice movement Viktor Medvedchuk, while Ukraine received 215, including Azov battalion commanders Denis Prokopenko ("Redis") and Svyatoslav Palamara ("Kalina"),” said President Erdogan commenting on the event. Thus, this exchange was the largest compromise between Ukraine and Russia since the grain deal, and perhaps more significant, given its political implications.

Above all, Turkey has once again acted as the main mediator and guarantor of the implementation of agreements. This shows the credibility of Turkey, a state that can not only bring Russia and Ukraine to the same table, but also achieve concrete agreements between them.

In contrast, Iran, a neighbouring regional country, has made a significant flaw. After selling its drones to Russia, which uses them in military operations, Iranian officials have also publicly stated that their drones were so reliable that one of the superpowers has bought a batch of drones from them.

As a result, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry stripped the Iranian ambassador in Kiev of his accreditation and demanded that the embassy's staff be reduced. It is unlikely Moscow was pleased to hear about Iran's hints about selling drones to Russia. For example, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to acknowledge the purchase of drones from Tehran. In general, Iranian diplomacy was not at its best in this episode, to put it mildly.

Meanwhile, amid growing expectations of a further round of tensions in and around Ukraine, a message came from Washington. "The US is not seeking conflict with Russia and is trying to prevent further escalation over Ukraine," said White House press secretary Karin Jean-Pierre. Whether this is the White House's response to the Russian president's assumptions about the possibility of using weapons of mass destruction is difficult to say. But such encouraging messages occur amid galloping tensions in international affairs, which suggest that there is hope, however fragile, for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.