VOTERS NOT DISAPPOINTED YET

It is the first time in the last ten years that the Italian right-wing may form a parliamentary majority. Also for the first time in Italian history, a woman has a chance to become a prime minister. And again, for the first time since 1945, a parliamentary majority may be led by a party believed to be ideologically close to Italian fascism.

Giorgia Meloni's far-right Brothers of Italy (FDI) party won the snap parliamentary elections on September 25 securing 26% of the vote. It is now expected to form a new government by the end of October with its coalition partners, the populist Liga led by Matteo Salvini and the centre-right Forza Italia of Silvio Berlusconi.

The results of this election have been received worldwide, and particularly in Europe, with noticeable wariness. For example, European Parliament Vice-President Katharina Barley said Meloni's victory was ‘worrisome’ given her association with Viktor Orban and Donald Trump. "Her pre-election attempts to appease Europe cannot hide the fact that she is a danger to constructive coexistence in Europe," the German newspaper Welt quoted Barley.

At the same time, right-wing leaders across Europe welcomed the victory of the Italian coalition. Among the first to congratulate Georgia Meloni was the leader of the French Rassemblement Nationale, Marine Le Pen, who joyfully proclaimed that "all of Europe is waking up after Poland, Hungary, Sweden and now Italy".

Is FDI a fascist party?

Many refer to the term ‘far-right’ solely in terms of overtly fascist or neo-Nazi parties. However, there is another view supported in particular by Dutch politics professor Kas Mudde in his book The Far Right Today. He claims that they should be divided into two parts. Into the ‘extreme right’, which rejects the essence of democracy, and the ‘radical right’, which accepts the democratic system, but opposes its fundamental elements of liberal democracy - such as minority rights, the rule of law and the separation of powers.

Among the former, he believes, are the German Nazis and Italian Fascists of the 1930s and the Second World War, as well as contemporary movements - the alternative right in the US or the identity movement (white supremacy advocates) in Europe.

The latter include parties such as Spain's Vox, Austria's Freedom Party, Germany's Alternative for Germany and Italy's Liga. They are also often referred to as nationalist-conservative or far-right populist parties.

Meloni has a lot in common with the leaders of the second group of parties, as she openly supports Vox, says she gets on ‘very well’ with the Hungarian leader Viktor Orban.

In Italy, the label ‘extreme right’ mainly refers to neo-fascist groups such as CasaPound and Forza Nuova, which openly revive the symbols, vocabulary and ideas of the Mussolini-era fascism.

This is one of the reasons why FDI and the Liga are often referred to in Italy as centre-right. The reason why the international media refers to FDI as a post-fascist party lies in its origin. FDI is a political descendant of the Italian Social Movement (MSI) formed by Mussolini's supporters after the Second World War. Meloni, as one of FDI's founders, was an MSI activist as a teenager. And in one of her interviews she praised Mussolini as "a good politician, the best in the last 50 years". Her party supports the fascist slogan 'God, Family, Fatherland', while the FDI logo still bears the tricoloured flame symbol once used by the MSI.

In addition, one section of the party, including the granddaughter of the dictator, Racheli Mussolini, believes that the party should stop using the controversial flame symbol. The other openly admires the fascist past. In 2021, a video of FDI functionaries exchanging Fascist jokes and Roman salutes (a salute in which the right hand is extended forward with a straight palm and fingers. The official gesture of the Italian Fascist Party under Mussolini). On the eve of the election, the party’s regional leader in Sicily, Calogero Pisano, was suspended from office after he published a series of posts on Facebook praising Adolf Hitler.

While Meloni herself insists on keeping the tricolour flame as a tribute to history, she maintains a view that there is no place for fascist nostalgia in her party. In August, on the eve of the elections, she made a multilingual video message in which she said that "fascism has gone down in history".

We will see… But it is a fact that Meloni seems to have learned from the mistakes of her extreme right-wing allies across Europe. Many of them have been sidelined by voters and opposing political parties because they consider them too toxic. After years of failed far-right attempts to come to power in major EU countries, including Germany and France, some European far-right parties like FDI have rebranded themselves to soften their image and increase their appeal.

Throughout the campaign Meloni has promoted herself not as a nativist or Eurosceptic, as Salvini does, but as a defender of family values, an ardent supporter of Ukraine and NATO, a woman, a mother and a Christian. In her recent address to the international press, she rejected suggestions that her rise to power was a precursor to authoritarianism in Italy. She noted that she and her coalition partners "strongly oppose any anti-democratic drift" and share the values of other traditionally centre-right parties around the world. Moreover, the FDI leader stated that her party could be compared to the British Conservatives.

No roubles, nor vodka

Last summer, the EU allocated €191.5b in grants and loans to Italy for economic recovery after the pandemic (the PNRR agreement, Plan for National Recovery and Resilience). The money is flowing into the country in phases as negotiated reforms are completed, the main ones including plans to shorten civil and criminal trials, modernise public administration and reform competition law.

The previous government of Mario Draghi managed to meet its obligations for the first half of this year, receiving €46 billion in return. The commitments for the second half of the year are pending and it is now up to Giorgia Meloni's government to decide whether the country will receive the third instalment (€19b).

Although the right-wing bloc said in the run-up to the election that it hoped to receive the full €191.5bn, it also said that due to "changed conditions and priorities" the bloc wanted to revise the PNRR agreement with Brussels. Since the EU is not willing to renegotiate anything, the new government will either have to say goodbye to the money the country needs for its economy, or forget about some of its election promises regarding tougher relations with the European Union.

But these are not the biggest problems the new government will face.

Gas and electricity prices in Italy and across Europe have risen sharply in recent months amid an unstable energy market following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Over the summer, the Draghi cabinet signed off on a number of aid packages to ease the shock. But with rising energy prices showing no signs of abating, there is no doubt that additional measures will be needed this winter to help struggling households and businesses. So far, coalition members have not decided how they plan to deal with the energy crisis.

The cost of living continues to rise amid skyrocketing inflation, which reached a 37-year high at the start of the autumn. Many households across Italy find it increasingly difficult to make ends meet. The right-wing coalition said it plans to protect the purchasing power of families by reducing VAT on all essential goods and easing the tax burden on families, businesses and the self-employed, but did not explain how it was going to accomplish this task.

Meloni and her coalition partner Salvini oppose what they call an ‘migrant invasion’. And Meloni has repeatedly called for "naval blockades" to stop their arrival by sea. The coalition pledges to set up EU-run asylum centres in North African countries.

The new cabinet's position on Russia's invasion to Ukraine may also differ from that of its predecessor.

Although Giorgia Meloni has supported European sanctions against Russia and the deployment of weapons to Kiev, her previous support for Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea raises reasonable doubts about the sincerity of her current approach. And two other key members of her future government, Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini, are long-time friends of Vladimir Putin.

Three days before the election Salvini said that his Russian friend was pushed to war by his entourage and the Russian society, while Putin himself allegedly only wanted to replace the government in Ukraine with ‘decent people’. There was such an uproar that Berlusconi was quick to claim that Salvini was misunderstood and actually condemned the aggression against Ukraine.

The second insists that sanctions against Moscow are damaging the Italian industry, assuring that he has "never received money or a litre of vodka from Russia".

Experiment

Since 1946, Italy has seen almost 70 governments change, each lasting on average about 18 months. Since the previous election in 2018, three governments have changed in Italy.

"That's why the people voted for the right-wingers. Because the right-wingers haven't ruled yet. We haven't yet become disillusioned with them," a small café owner in the centre of Naples told the BBC. Another voter told France 24: "She (Giorgia Meloni) is the only one we have not yet checked, which means she is the only one who has not yet failed.”

Italian voters like experiments. And the first female prime minister of the first far-right cabinet in the post-war era has about 18 months not to disappoint them.