WAR AND PEACE

With the Ukrainian army’s counter-offensive, the war in Ukraine is becoming increasingly intense. On October 9, according to the Ukrainian military, Russian troops fired 12 missiles into Zaporozhye. The strikes hit residential buildings killing at least 13 people and wounding 60. And the next day, a missile strike on critical infrastructure in Kiev's Shevchenko district killed eight people and wounded 24 more civilians.

In addition, more than 30 settlements were hit by gunfire. In particular, Kharkov, Dnepr, Makeyevka, Ugledar, Nikopol and others. In this way, the Russian side is trying to disrupt the counter-offensive, stop the active advancement of the Ukrainian military and retain the territories under its control. The most active situation was observed in Bakhmutsk and Avdeyevka, where the Ukrainian military repulsed several dozen attacks daily.

A new twist of events

A clear sign of the Ukrainian army's widening coverage was the bombing of the strategically important Crimean bridge. Although the Ukrainians have not officially acknowledged their involvement, Russian President Vladimir Putin called the incident a terrorist attack by the Ukrainian security services. The security of the bridge was entrusted to the FSB, which will now be directly responsible for its safety. Apparently, this was the reason for the speculations put forward by Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, that this was the result of an "internal squabble" between the FSB and private military companies, which are extremely unhappy about the mistakes of the Russian command.

Thus, assumptions that the Ukrainians began to make extensive use of sabotage tactics at Russian strategic facilities may seem premature, which, however, is disputed by the Russian side. Interestingly, Podolyak called the explosion on the bridge between Russia and Crimea only "the beginning". Perhaps the Ukrainians are seriously counting on the growing internal contradictions within the Russian leadership. Especially amid open criticism from Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and Russian billionaire and owner of the private military company Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin against the leadership of the Ministry of Defence for the recent failures.

On October 8, in response to growing criticism of the ongoing military campaign, Moscow appointed a new commander of the combined group of Russian troops in Ukraine, General Sergey Surovikin, who is known for having previously led Russian troops in Syria. In Syria, he was repeatedly accused of using brutal and controversial military tactics, such as indiscriminate bombing of anti-government strongholds. However, it is believed that it was these methods of Russian command that saved the Syrian government from defeat and regain control of as much as 50% of the country's territory back from opposition forces.

He also previously served in Tajikistan, Chechnya and Afghanistan. And until his current assignment, Surovikin was head of the South Group of the Russian army.

By the way, the Russian general was well known long before the military campaign in Syria and Ukraine. During the 1991 coup in August, the 25-year-old Surovikin, then in charge of the 20th Battalion of the Taman Division, drove his armoured vehicle into a group of people killing three. After the defeat of the GKCP, he spent six months in the Matrosskaya Tishina prison, but was acquitted on the grounds that he was following orders.

Remarkably, Surovikin’s appointment took place on the same day when the Crimean Bridge was exploded. The new commander is instructed to step up the Russian offensive and break the series of setbacks of recent weeks.

Strange war

Apparently, this task will likely be accomplished by sensitive strikes on critical civilian and military infrastructure. Thus, according to the Russian Defence Ministry, on October 10, the Russian army carried out a massive strike with long-range precision weapons against Ukrainian military command, communications and energy systems. Vladimir Putin said during an operational meeting of the Russian Security Council that the shelling of Ukrainian cities was a response to the terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge. The situation shows how sensitive of issue the strike on the bridge was for Russia.

The damage to the bridge is estimated at 200-500 million roubles ($3-8 million). But the point is not just the scale of the damage but the throughput capacity of the bridge, which is 40,000 cars and 47 trains daily.

After the explosion, the flow of cargo to Crimea from Russia decreased significantly. With Moscow’s effective use of the Crimean peninsula to move manpower and weapons, this reduces its logistical importance as well. The Crimean Bridge, in particular, provides fuel and military equipment needed in combat operations to the fronts with Ukraine by rail. Deterioration of the bridge's carrying capacity may negatively affect the position of the Russian South Group fighting in Kherson and Zaporozhye.

The Ukrainian army's success can be explained by the high degree of decentralisation of command functions and the distribution of responsibilities among lower-level commanders.

The Ukrainian military reform of recent years is believed to have been based on the principle when decision-making is delegated to the lowest command level. It is about creating a new corps of non-commissioned officers highly respected among the military personnel, like in the US, with the power to make independent decisions based on the situation.

In February, when Ukraine faced a much larger and better equipped Russian army, only the self-organisation instinct saved cities such as Kharkov, Nikolayev and Krivoy Rog from defeat because in many cases regular troops to defend them were either insufficient or non-existent.

If there had been no self-defence forces, if the local authorities had only waited for orders from Kiev, these towns would have suffered the fate of their neighbours.  Of course, massive supplies of military equipment from Western countries have contributed greatly to the success.

French Caesar self-propelled howitzers and Polish Krabs have considerably helped the Ukrainian self-defence units. In addition, Ukrainian artiller learned to quickly disassemble and reassemble the much more numerous stationary American M777 howitzers.

Need for peace

But many experts say that this war may not be limited to the use of conventional weapons. Following Russia's announcement of its de facto annexation of four Ukrainian regions and the non-exceptional use of weapons of mass destruction if it feels threatened with hostilities on the Russian territory, many world leaders have become more sceptical about the final settlement of the situation in Ukraine.

Thus, US President Joe Biden had an hour-long telephone conversation with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Both leaders criticised Moscow's latest nuclear threats as irresponsible and agreed that "such a move would have extraordinary serious consequences for Russia". During a speech at a Democratic Party fundraising event, the US President touched upon the issue of Ukraine and said the world was facing a nuclear threat not seen since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin pointed out that only irresponsible people could talk about nuclear escalation and that Russia has repeatedly pointed out that it did not intend to use nuclear weapons. Their use is possible only as a response to an attack on a country.

Such talks on the prospects of the war seriously disturb Turkey, whose leadership has long been probing the ground for the possibility of negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian leaderships.

In his interview with RIA Novosti, Ismail Emrah Karayel, chairman of the Turkey-EU Joint Parliamentary Committee, said that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wanted to reduce tensions in the region and reach a solution to some international problems. Therefore, the Turkish side proposes to hold talks in Istanbul between Russia, the US, France, Germany and the UK.

It is known that back in late September Erdogan said that Ankara intended to secure a meeting between Putin and Zelensky as soon as possible. However, following Russia's decision to annex four Ukrainian regions, President Zelensky refused to negotiate with his Russian counterpart. The Turkish leader then suggested Russia to hold talks with the West directly.

Russian president’s spokesperson Dmitriy Peskov did not rule out a discussion at a meeting between Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart on Ankara's proposal to hold talks between Moscow and the West on Ukraine.

The reaction of Western countries to this proposal is unknown. At Zelensky’s request, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz initiated an emergency meeting of the G7 on October 11.

Zelensky asked Western countries to increase pressure on Russia and provide more assistance to the Ukrainian army. This means that the Turkish proposals may once again be shelved. Unless new circumstances emerge and all sides agree to direct negotiations without preconditions in the face of the threat of war with weapons of mass destruction.