TENSION RATCHETING UP

On October 29, the Russia-Ukraine war saw a new twist with drone attacks on Sevastopol, which caused minor damage to the Ivan Golubets naval minesweeper and the boom barrier in Yuzhnaya Bay. In response, Russia announced its withdrawal from the grain deal brokered by Turkey and the UN.

It is expected that this will be followed by even greater political and military tensions in the Black Sea basin, which can disrupt not only the grain corridor but also any transport and transit projects in the Black Sea.

At current stage, the war presents even greater uncertainty and frustration threatening the region and the world with serious consequences. Some observers believe that such decisive actions by Ukrainians in recent weeks are due to even greater support from Western countries than before. After a massive air raid on Ukrainian critical infrastructure by the Russian army, Kiev was promised another massive military and economic aid. The military support was approved at the sixth Ramstein meeting, with another €5 billion in economic aid by the EU by the end of this year.

Testing ABM

In response to the bombing of the Crimean bridge by Ukrainian security services, as reported by Russians, dozens of Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities have come under massive missile attack. They used long-range missiles and Iranian kamikaze drones for this purpose. Ukrainian authorities stated that the shelling of housing, social and energy infrastructure caused a damage worth hundreds of billions of dollars, and the situation with electricity supply in the country was quite tense. According to Ukrainian President Zelensky, 30% of power plants in the country have been destroyed since October 10.

To protect the survivors, Ukrainians once again appealed to Western states to immediately provide it with advanced missile defence systems. In response to this appeal, NATO defence ministers decided to dispatch the latest air defence systems and the necessary equipment for offensive operations. The Western air defence system will reportedly be echeloned and help defend important targets from the air.

These systems include the US NASAMS air defence systems. Ukraine will first receive two sets equipped with up to 8 launchers with a command post and radar for target tracking each.

In addition, Britain decided to hand over AMRAAM missiles to Ukraine, which can be launched from NASAMS SAMs to counter cruise missiles, kamikaze drones and other aerial targets.

In addition to the IRIS-T (SLM) air defence system already received and deployed in the south of the country, Ukraine intends to receive three more such systems. The system is believed to be effective in destroying aircraft, helicopters, UAVs, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.

France plans to supply Ukraine with Crotale air defence systems but has not announced their exact numbers, while Spain plans to supply Ukraine with four Hawk surface-to-air missile systems. Both systems are particularly effective against drones. 

Meanwhile, Ukraine calls on France and Italy to provide it with the more advanced SAMP-T air defence systems. However, no decision has yet been made on the transfer of the complex to the country.

In general, arms deliveries to Ukraine allow Western countries to test them in combat conditions, a fact that official Kiev also acknowledges.  The situation looks like a competition in efficiency between the two, Ukrainian Defence Minister Alexey Reznikov told Politico. He pointed out that the Ukrainian army has eight different 155mm artillery systems that it uses in combat operations.

Israel abstains

Even the Israeli parliament broke its initial neutrality and offered the supply of weapons to Ukraine because of the supply of Iranian missiles to Russia. The initiative was put forward by the Knesset member and Israeli Minister of Diaspora Affairs Nachman Shai.

With its massive arms deliveries to Russia, Iran has in fact openly sided with Moscow in the conflict. For Israel, this can be an important incentive to help the Ukrainian army to repel Iranian drone and missile attacks and at the same time test the effectiveness of its military equipment against potential targets.

However, Shai's calls sounded more like election campaign rhetoric than Israel's actual intention to move in this direction. A few days later, Israeli Defence Minister Beni Gantz responded to his colleague: "I am the Defence Minister and I am responsible for the export of Israeli arms. I want to make it clear that we will not sell weapons to Ukraine.”

In principle, Ukraine was disappointed with Israel after Beni Gantz cancelled a planned conversation with Ukrainian Defence Minister Reznikov without explanation.

Relations with Russia, however difficult they may seem, continue to be important for Israel as they allow it to build the necessary balance of interests in the region.

Moscow has exceptional influence in Syria and is a deterring factor against the growing influence of Iran. Moreover, Iranian proxies operating in Syria have repeatedly been targeted by Israeli missile attacks without encountering resistance from the Russian army.  This seriously irritates Tehran, but converges Russian and Israeli interests to the extent that Tel Aviv cannot oppose Moscow.

At the same time, as a Ramstein participant, Israel provides the Ukrainian army with military intelligence and analytics that Kiev can use to counter Iranian drones. Kiev is also provided with Israeli humanitarian aid.

However, this does not mean that the issue of Israeli arms deliveries to Ukraine is closed forever. Recently, President Zelensky announced that Ukraine began cooperation with Israel in the field of intelligence and defence. As a result, Kiev received from Israel a Smart Shooter system to intercept Iranian drones, Israeli website Debka reported. According to Debka, the system was allegedly installed on Ukrainian light aircraft and drones. Smart Shooter is controlled by artificial intelligence and an advanced radar system. Israeli developers claim that it always hits the target accurately and never makes a mistake.

Iran sides with Russia

As for Iran, Ukraine has officially accused it of joint military aggression with Russia, which effectively equals Tehran Moscow, making it an aggressor.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmirty Kuleba reportedly called on the EU foreign ministers to impose sanctions on Iran for helping Russia commit terror against Ukrainians. He said that tough sanctions were needed because of Tehran's readiness to supply Moscow with ballistic missiles. Ukrainians are also considering the option of expelling the Iranian ambassador and terminating bilateral diplomatic relations.

These sanctions were announced at the recent EU summit held on October 20-21. They target 11 Iranian individuals and 4 authorities, including the Iranian police, believed by the EU to be responsible for the repression in the country.

As for economic aid to Ukraine, Kiev will receive €5 billion from the EU by the end of the year. This is part of a 9-billion-euro bailout, with which the Ukrainian authorities intend to maintain the stability of public finances.

This is in line with the implementation of the decision adopted by the European Commission on May 18, 2022. Ukraine received the first instalment of the €1bn-aid package at the end of July. This caused a dispute in the EU over the remaining €8bn, and the transfer was stalled.

One of the key topics of the summit was the definition of a gas price ceiling. Brussels once again failed to take a consolidated decision on the issue, as Germany insists that the ceiling would have a negative impact on gas supplies.

Meanwhile, the EU summit in Brussels agreed that any possible gas price restrictions would not affect Hungary's long-term gas contracts, in particular the 15-year contract with Russian Gazprom.

Searching for peace

While the situation in and around Ukraine is developing in the logic of war, there are politicians who voice ideas about the possibility of peace. Thus, during Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's visit to Georgia, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili supported the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine through negotiations. "We reviewed the difficult situation in the world. We discussed the situation in the region, of course, and we all agree that the ongoing situation in Ukraine should be regulated through negotiations," Garibashvili said after his meeting with Ilham Aliyev.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan referred to possible negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in his interview with Hürriyet: "We are not hopeless. We wish that by uniting both leaders we could follow along the path towards peace. Because both sides are suffering serious losses. I believe that peace will not be a loser".

In other words, regional leaders believe that there can be no alternative to negotiations between Kiev and Moscow. This can be viewed in different ways. Granted the demonstration of peaceful approach by many experienced and reputable politicians in respective regions, this position should hardly be ignored.

At the same time, the issue was also discussed in Rome at the international forum Call for Peace. Italian President Sergio Mattarella said that "in the face of such terrible scenarios (threat of nuclear war) our conscience calls for the protection of the right to peace, and this unites us here today".

French President Emmanuel Macron, who participated in the forum, stated that he was ready to continue the dialogue with Moscow and wanted peace even when it seemed like a betrayal: "The prospect of peace is there and one day it will come. At some point, depending on how events unfold, when the Ukrainian people and their leaders come to necessary decisions, peace will be found on their terms and today's enemies will sit down at the negotiating table, and the world community will be with them".

Obviously, the presidents of Turkey and France have different visions of peace. It is possible that the French leader is thus hoping to replace Turkey as the key peacemaker. After all, with the likelihood of a peaceful solution to the conflict, today there are no other moderators in the process of building communication between Kiev and Moscow than Ankara. At the same time, President Macron's ambitions, which do not fit into the geographical framework of his country, do not allow him to remain an observer of Turkey's growing geopolitical influence.

However, the final decision must be agreed upon between the conflicting parties themselves. But peace talks in the current situation seem only speculative.