AMERICANS EXPECTING THREATS

"This should have been a huge red wave. It should have been one of the biggest red waves we have ever had, because President Biden's approval rating was so low, one of the lowest historically, more than 70 percent of people thought the country was going in the wrong direction. And yet we still didn't perform," said the incumbent Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (R), who lashed out at Donald Trump after the Democrats were reported win the majority in the Senate.

"it's basically the third election in a row that Donald Trump has cost us the race… It’s doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result," Hogan added.

Incidentally, Hogan will be succeeded in January 2023 by Wes Moore (D), who defeated Dan Cox (R), Trump's nominee. Hogan refused to endorse Cox's party-mate calling him "mentally unstable".

These statements, as well as their author, illustrate well the processes going on in the US. 

Hogan has been a little disingenuous, however. Biden's approval rating is far from the lowest. His predecessors have had worse. Trump had 37% in 2017, Obama 12% in 2009, not to mention the 2-3% support of American presidents of the last century.

Used and thrown away

Larry Hogan is one of the few Republicans who think Trump is a loser who is dragging the party down.

After all, it was Trump who played a huge role in the failure of the Republican Party in 2022. With a lot of support from rank-and-file Republicans, he has nominated candidates for the Congress, governors and other elected positions who are far-right and loyal to him personally.

His key demand for candidates was to admit that the 2020 election was stolen and that Biden was not a legitimate president. Trump did not care about his nominees' qualifications. In the end, most of them lost the election.

Interestingly, there were also candidates who willingly repeated some of Trump's accusations, seeking the former president's support during the primaries, but then took their words back.

For example, retired Brigadier General Don Bolduc stated in August during the party elections for the Senate candidate: "I signed a letter with 120 other generals and admirals that Trump won the election [in 2020], and damn it, I stand by my opinion. I'm not changing horses, baby. That's it."

However, after winning the primaries, he suddenly changed the tune. "I've done a lot of research on this, and I've come to the conclusion that the election was not stolen," Bolduc told Fox News. When asked why he'd said otherwise before, he replied bluntly, military-style, that he had to be in line with the political reality. In other words, he took advantage of Trump and threw him out. Admittedly, this didn't help the general anyway. He lost the election. And partly because of his associating himself with Trump.

Changing Trump

There are growing calls in the Republican Party to reject Trump's leadership. But this is not easy to do. Although he has alienated moderate voters from the party, he has attracted far more - 15-20 million people who never went to the polls before. And this mass of far-right voters will leave the party with Trump.

Party analysts argue that the Republican electorate can be divided into three main groups. About 10% are non-Trump supporters, Republicans who have long and openly opposed him. A much larger group of about 40% are Trumpists, his loyal base who will never abandon him.

The remaining 50% are Republicans who voted for him twice and are generally happy with his policies, but are now embarrassed by the chaos he has created. So there is a demand for a new leader. The search for such a leader has intensified considerably since the past election.

A new favourite?

Ron DeSantis' resounding victory with an incredible 20% margin during his re-election campaign for the governor of Florida made him the most popular politician among the Republicans.

Many party members are already calling him an alternative to Trump, which makes the latter not happy eventually.

Trump immediately unleashed his anger on DeSantis taking credit for the governor's political rise and claiming DeSantis would be sorry if he tried to challenge him.

"I think if he runs for the president in 2024, he could really hurt himself. I can tell you many unflattering things about him. I know more about him than anybody else, except maybe his wife," Trump said in his interview with Fox News.

But it suddenly turned out that Trump's attacks on the rising star did not please conservative commentators, including those who supported him in 2016 and 2020.

"Trump has 0 chance of election in 2024. Times are changing. DeSantis in 2024 or total defeat," tweeted Mike Cernovich, a right-wing commentator who supported Trump's previous election to the White House.

What came as a big surprise to Trump was that the conservative media outlets such as Fox News also sided with the Florida governor. The cable channel, which has served Trump faithfully for years, published an article urging the party to move on without the former president.

The New York Post featured on the front page a huge picture of the former president falling from a brick wall - an allusion to Humpty Dumpty - with the following headline: "Don (who couldn’t build a wall) had a great fall". NYP called DeSantis, on the other hand, "DeFuture".

It is not just DeSantis who is ready to challenge Trump, but also his Virginia colleague Glenn Allen Youngkin, former Vice President Michael Pence, former US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley and many others who believe that Trump's time has passed.

Biden as an obstacle

The Democrats, on the other hand, are not yet seriously considering a future presidential election. Joe Biden turns 80 on November 20 and says he intends to run, but will announce his decision early next year.

So far, polls show that voters largely disapprove of Biden's work, believing his policies are damaging the country.

Almost 70% of voters say they do not want Biden to go for re-election. Even two-thirds of Democrats favour another candidate for the 2024 election. His age is cited as the main issue.

The Biden administration's approval rating has remained low for more than a year. Although the Democrats seemed to have their luck back in the summer, high inflation and fears of an economic recession reasserted themselves just before the election, making it difficult for the Democrats to fight for both houses of the Congress.

However, the results exceeded all expectations. Moreover, they were the best for the ruling party in at least 20 years, although traditionally the party that controls the White House usually loses seats in midterm elections.

Only two presidents since the Second World War—John F. Kennedy in 1962 and George W. Bush in 2002—have avoided defeat in the Senate and lost less than 10 seats in the House in their first midterm elections.

But the Democrats do not seem to have nominees for the future. Some functionaries of the party argue that this is the fault of Biden himself, who is in no hurry to prepare a potential successor, consciously or not, making himself an irreplaceable man.

Logically the leader of anyparty should contribute to its success. But The New York Times argues that the success of the party should not be seen as an endorsement of the president.

Biden's performance was a huge obstacle for Democratic candidates, who won in spite of the president, not because of him, one of the lawmakers told NYT.

Two halves

According to exit polls, more than two-thirds of the voters believe that democracy in America is under great threat.

Paradoxically, everyone seems to have a different perception of threat. Half of the voters who thought democracy was under great threat voted for Republican candidates in the hope that they would deal with the threat. The other half looked to the Democrats for salvation.

For Democrats, the danger comes from Republican election deniers and conspiracy theorists, as well as from Trump himself.

Meanwhile, 35% of all voters who went to the election do not believe that Biden won legally in 2020. Unsurprisingly, almost all of them voted for Republicans.

There is an even bigger split ahead—within the Republican Party, for and against Trump, within the Democratic Party, for and against Biden.

We have yet to hear about an idea that could unite everyone again. Could this be the big threat expected in the US?