LESSONS FROM WAR

On November 8, Azerbaijan celebrated its youngest and undoubtedly most important and joyous holiday, the Victory Day. It was celebrated beautifully, with military marches through the streets, concerts and fireworks. A significant event in this series was the visit of the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev to Shusha and his speech in front of the military troops. There he delivered important messages to both mediators and, most importantly, to Armenia.

Playing with fire is costly

Most experts view President Ilham Aliyev's keynote address in Shusha a programme speech. It was not just a tribute to protocol. President clearly and firmly outlined the situation after the 44-day war. "Armenia should not forget the lessons of the Second Garabagh War. They should know that playing with fire will cost them dearly. If someone, even the authorities, even the opposition, or any foreign element has evil intentions against us, they will see our iron fist again. The events of the last two years has clearly demonstrated this. Even the events that took place this year, namely the Operation Farrukh, Operation Vengeance, the events that took place on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border on September 13-14 must be a lesson for Armenia. We teach this lesson, and we hope that they will finally understand this, and humbly deal with their domestic affairs without prying into our lands, without prying into Garabagh. Garabagh is our land,” Mr. Aliyev said.

"Russian peacekeepers are deployed there temporarily. The term of their stay is clearly specified in the November 10, 2020 trilateral statement. If they count on anyone, they will face a tragedy again," President Aliyev added.

The head of state also issued another stern warning to Yerevan: "We have been fulfilling all our commitments, as stipulated in the November 2020 statement, for two years now. What about Armenia? No! What are the Armenian troops doing in Garabagh? Our patience is not unlimited. I warn you once again that if this commitment is not fulfilled, Azerbaijan will take the necessary steps.” Mr. Aliyev also recalled Armenia's refusal to open the Zangezur corridor.

Pashinian, Vardanian, Volkov and...

The Azerbaijani president voiced his warnings to Yerevan and Khankendi at a time when the Armenians placed high hopes on the Russian oligarch Ruben Vardanian. He has recently announced his resettlement to Khankendi and was appointed a state minister in the government of the separatist regime. His arrival in Khankendi eventually triggered attempts to restart the policy of Miatsum. This was demonstrated during the recent rally in Khankendi held under the old slogans from 1988.

Ruben Vardanian enjoys giving interviews to the Russian media outlets, which clearly show his dangerously irresponsible behaviour rather than uncompromising attitude: "We are all soldiers", "Artsakh will not be part of Azerbaijan", "Azerbaijan is preparing ethnic cleansing", "Artsakh must be part of the negotiation process" and other provocative nonsense.

Many direct and indirect signs shows that in their hopes to restart the Miatsum the Armenian nationalists seriously think that this policy will be carried out under the protection of Russian peacekeepers. In any case, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan directly hints at this.

Speaking at the government session, Pashinian said: "the November 2020 statement indicates that the term of stay of the peacekeeping contingent is five years with an automatic extension of this period for another five-year periods. In essence this means that the peacekeepers are deployed in Nagorno-Karabakh indefinitely, until all issues regarding the rights and security of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh are resolved.”

But it was a failed attempt to correct the Azerbaijani president. We still remember how Pashinian quoted the UNSC resolutions not from their original sources, but from Wikipedia during his Munich debate with President Aliyev. But even now he has not bothered to refresh his memory by reading the Trilateral Agreement, which explicitly states that "the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation shall be deployed in parallel with the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces. The period of stay of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is 5 years and shall be automatically extended by a further five-year period if none of the Parties declares six months prior to the expiration of the period of its intention to terminate the application of this provision." That's it! No rights for the Armenians of Garabagh, no Nagorno-Karabakh and no political and legal basis to hide behind peacekeepers. Moreover, they were not deployed in the region to protect the illegal armed groups of Armenians in Garabagh. Baku is thus free to neutralise such groups completely.

Attempts to link the presence of peacekeepers to the issue of "status", "guarantees", etc. are doomed to failure. Azerbaijan will simply not discuss anything of the kind. And as President Aliyev reminded, 'we dictate the rules, we are the main force here'. Which means it will not be possible to conduct any initiative against the will of Azerbaijan. It was not possible before the 44-day war either, when the representatives of Baku refused to sign documents contradicting the interests of Azerbaijan. This is especially impossible after Azerbaijan became a victorious state.

Pashinian's frustration with Washington

The warning of the Azerbaijani president took place amid the meeting of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Jeyhun Bayramov and Ararat Mirzoyan, in Washington thanks to the mediation of the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. "What we see today are real and courageous steps from both sides to leave behind the past issues and work towards lasting peace. As a friend of Armenia and Azerbaijan, the US is committed to do everything to support you in these efforts," Blinken commented on the outcome of the meeting. Additionally, Blinken assured that "the US strongly supports the sovereignty and territorial independence of both Armenia and Azerbaijan.” He did not explain what the term territorial independence implies though, as a new term in diplomatic language. This, however, might have simply been a slip of the tongue.

Blinken also refrained from giving specific details as to what and whether the parties agreed in Washington. This is in stark contrast to the talks in Brussels and Sochi between the heads of state. The meeting in the US leaves no doubt: Washington intends to advance its mediation efforts. Moreover, the pro-Armenian bias in French policy is now also undermining the mediation efforts of the European Union, hence increasing the chances for Washington.

In whose favour will the new American mediation change the situation? Armenia can count on its diaspora and lobby in the US. But as many experts acknowledge, Washington is interested in ending the conflict as soon as possible and signing a peace treaty, which is in line with Azerbaijan's position, not Armenia's, which is trying to delay the process as much as possible. According to many diplomatic leaks, Washington is also prepared to support Azerbaijan's five points of the future peace treaty. This is already a serious disappointment for Nikol Pashinyan, who hoped once again to bargain using his revolutionary image in the US.

Iran could also play a role in this case. Ned Price, the State Department spokesman, is promising to support Azerbaijan against Iran. Washington has not officially responded to Tehran's courageous activity on the Armenian front, the opening of its consulate in Gafan and intentions to open an Armenian consulate in Tabriz. But Washington is definitely aware of the events.

Given the Azerbaijani president’s warning in Shusha, Armenia clearly has less time for reflection. There is also less time to involve more mediators in the process, which would have eventually delay the issue. However, Yerevan is better not try the poke-and-prod method in an attempt to know what happens next.