CAPITOL SHUFFLES THE CARDS

The US elections to the Congress traditionally called midterm elections due to their being held between two presidential races did not bring any unexpected results. Nevertheless, their traditional influence on the perspective US policy still remains. Especially the foreign policy, which is important for the whole international community.

Are Americans ready for the new course?

Another midterm election in the largest economic, political and military power with major influence on global affairs ended with a relative strengthening of the Republican Party, which now has the majority (218) of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives to control this body.

For the past two years, the Democratic Party has had a majority both in the lower (House of Representatives) and upper (Senate) houses of the US Congress. This has made it possible to the Biden administration to push any decisions through the Congress virtually unhindered. Now, however, with even the slightest majority of the Republicans in the House of Representatives, they can block the White House agenda to the extent of the prerogatives of the lower house.

Meanwhile, the Democrats retained control of the Senate, which means a divided Congress.  Of the 100 senatorial seats, the Democrats won 50 and the Republicans 49. The second round of voting slated for December 6 in Georgia will determine the winner of one more seat however. And even if the Republicans succeed in getting the 50th seat in the Senate, the deciding 51st vote will belong to the Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris.

We can expect that the Republicans will chair the key committees of the House, meaning that they will have the upper hand in initiating specific bills, including even those relating to the long-announced Republican investigation into President Biden, his family members and the White House officials. However, legislative initiatives approved by Republicans in the House will be hampered by the Democratic majority in the Senate.

Nevertheless, the Republicans consider the current election campaign an overall success. One of the influential members of the party, Kevin McCarthy, who has been tipped to succeed Democrat Representative Nancy Pelosi as the House speaker, stated that “Americans are ready for a new course, and Republicans are ready to follow it”.

It is clear, however, that the cross-party alignment at the Capitol will only exacerbate the rivalry between the Democrats and Republicans. The current political configuration shaped by the midterm elections appears to fit in the ongoing preparations for the major battle, the 2024 presidential election. It is no coincidence that immediately after the elections former President Donald Trump announced his decision to run for the presidency again.

Trump is back. How will Biden respond?

Addressing the supporters outside his residence in Florida, Trump sharply criticised the current Democratic administration for the economic failures. He has particularly mentioned the steep rise in inflation, the highest in 40 years, and Biden's foreign policy. Trump believes that the incumbent administration has brought the country to the brink of nuclear war due to Biden’s inability to deal with the Ukrainian conflict. Trump concluded his speech by announcing his running for president of the United States, "to make America great and glorious again".

Experts attribute Trump's early entry into the presidential race, which is just two years away, to his intention to obfuscate his potential rivals in the Republican Party. However, Trump’s zeal is hardly encourage his rivals to give up the fight for leadership among the Republicans, including the former Vice President Mike Pence and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

The latter has been extremely popular during the midterm elections, when he was triumphantly re-elected the governor of Florida. Desantis is considered a conservative by his political views: in particular, he defends family values, is strongly against abortion and has been notably successful as a governor, particularly during the pandemic period.

Another serious contender for the Republican presidential nomination is Mike Pence, who was once considered Trump's nominee. However, the former vice-president now considers the former president to be far from the best candidate for the presidency. "The time has come for new leadership in this country that will unite us around our highest ideals," Pence motivated his position.

Remarkably, the Democrats also strive to achieve the ‘highest ideals’. However, we are yet to see the start of competition in the run-up to the presidential election in the Democrat camp, largely because of President Biden’s pending decision to run for president in 2024. Yet a tough competition among the Democrats is quite likely, even if Biden does seek reelection. This is due to the mixed attitudes of partisans towards the incumbent host of the White House. Biden has been widely criticised both for the ongoing economic crisis in the US and his approach to key foreign policy issues.

In fact, it is the likely impact of the midterm elections on the resolution of existing international problems that largely determines the interest of the global political community in the current alignment of political forces in Washington.

What do Republicans and Democrats have in common?

But it is clear that no major changes in the US foreign policy can be expected after the midterm elections. Irrespective of the balance of power in the Congress, foreign policy issues are the responsibility of the executive branch, i.e. the president and his administration.

Also, the position of the American political elite on the most sensitive international political issues demonstrates an absence of cardinal differences between the views of Republicans and Democrats. Only certain details of their approaches may differ, but not the approaches themselves. The same is true for the key issue of international politics—aid to Ukraine.

While the Republicans urge for the increase of control over Washington's aid to Kiev, they do not deny the very feasibility of such aid. They say the government needs to be more accountable to Congress on this issue, but do not mind even more military aid to Ukraine than is currently provided by the incumbent Democratic administration. They also insist on the involvement of the NATO allies in the provision of this aid to Ukraine.

The American position on the US-China relations is roughly the same. Republicans support a tougher approach to Beijing, yet there is a bipartisan agreement on the core principles of the issue. For example, Kevin McCarthy (R) is also planning to visit Taiwan after the recent visit to the island of his possible predecessor as the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi (D). Apparently, both Democrats and Republicans view countering China's growing global power as a move that might strengthen the Asia-Pacific vector of the US policy.

In general, Washington retains its claim to global leadership, even though the Republicans, unlike the Democrats, who advocate globalist goals and values, remain committed to the traditional isolationist sentiments. President Trump, for example, positions himself as the leader of the American nationalism. But the supporters of the "classic policy" associating the modern traditions with Ronald Reagan, US president in 1981-1988, continue to hold strong positions in the Republican camp. Their objective is to spread and assert the ‘American values’ in a globalising world. Perhaps this synthesis has been the main reference point of the American superpower binding Republicans and Democrats together.