YES FOR TOKAYEV!

As expected, the incumbent President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, secured a convincing victory (more than 80% of votes with a turnout of about 70%) in the early presidential elections in Kazakhstan. Only 5.8% of voters cast their ballots against all the candidates. The rest of Tokayev's rivals and their results (the most serious one being Zhiguli Dairabayev, candidate from the Auyl party with 3.4% of votes) were not even mentioned by most observers. They all agreed that the candidates looked like as little-known extras, who sometimes made strange statements not taken seriously.

Also, there was virtually no election campaign. The only call to vote for Tokayev were a bunch of promotion banners like "Make your choice! Your vote counts!" Apparently, the Kazakhs heeded the advice. Therefore, the past presidential election in Kazakhstan can be considered a popular vote of confidence in Tokayev, who earlier announced the political modernisation of the country.

"I believe the people have expressed their convincing confidence in me as president. The trust of my people is the most important value. We have to justify this trust,” the re-elected President Tokayev said soon after the announcement of the election results.

Path to modernisation

Tokayev came to power in 2019 when the outgoing Nursultan Nazarbayev chose him as his successor. Therefore, Tokayev’s first intention is to free himself from any association with the past leader, especially amid the earlier events in Kazakhstan. For example, the capital of the country has been renamed from Nursultan to Astana again, while the people of the first president of Kazakhstan are gradually leaving the political scene. The decree on holding early presidential elections in Kazakhstan was signed at the end of September after the adoption of amendments to the constitution.

According to amendments, the president's term of office has been increased from five to seven years, while re-election is prohibited. In the first half of 2023, the Kazakh citizens will cast votes for the lower house of the parliament and local representative bodies. Incidentally, this move also looks like a further purge of political ranks.

President Tokayev promises to ensure a competitive environment by the election time, with the number of attending parties increase. The registration procedure for political blocs has already been simplified, and a mixed proportional-majoritarian model has been proposed. In parallel, Tokayev is steadily distancing himself from Amanat, the ruling party. Either way, both party system and legislative power of Kazakhstan should be reformed to provide for a stronger parliament, which President Tokayev said he wanted to see. They must be balanced to withstand any crisis - political, social, humanitarian and military.

Given the increasing geopolitical turbulence in the world, preparing for such possible scenarios seems indeed a very prudent move. The society wants stability and predictability. And a strong leader.

Incidentally, by extending the term of office of the president to seven years, the current presidential election is exactly what gives Kazakhstan the necessary time break to free itself from political storms. This is also necessary for the announced radical economical changes. "The new model will ensure a regular rotation of power and consolidate the further democratic development of modern Kazakh statehood. These elections will establish a new political tradition in Kazakhstan, opening a new political era. The idea of justice will become the core of all state policy in Kazakhstan, aimed at improving the welfare of our people, promptly responding to the needs and demands of our citizens," President Tokayev promised.

Thanks to his extensive diplomatic experience, Mr. Tokayev has put a great deal of effort into the development of the Kazakh foreign policy. Thus, Kazakhstan increasingly pursues a multi-vector policy with different contextual accents and timely adjustments wherever possible. An important factor affecting the geopolitical position of the country is Kazakhstan’s rich yet landlocked mineral resources.

External vectors

Observers do not expect major changes in Kazakhstan’s foreign policy, but identify four main directions. First, despite predictions and assessments, Kazakhstan will continue its cooperation with Russia and the Kremlin-backed structures such as the EAEU and the CSTO. The Kazakh economy is largely affiliated with Russia, while the length of the common land border is nearly 8,000 km. Russia is also satisfied with Tokayev, and there is no need to list the reasons why. They are clear, given the difficult foreign policy environment in which Moscow found itself. 

Secondly, cooperation with China is and will remain an important factor for Astana. There is not much to show in this area other than constant activity. China is steadily bringing Kazakhstan and other Central Asian states closer by building infrastructure and implementing transport projects. Beijing has been the key buyer of Kazakh raw materials (primarily, oil, gas, uranium, copper and other industrial metals) for fifteen years. Both countries are increasing the railway communication capacity, with a new line planned to be completed by the end of 2025. In 2022, the container traffic between China and the EU through Kazakhstan increased by 84%.

Thirdly, thanks to membership in the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS), Kazakhstan is developing regional ties mainly with Azerbaijan and Turkey. At the recent summit of the OTS in Samarkand, Tokayev urged his colleagues to show solidarity to jointly confront all challenges and threats. The Kazakh leader considers it very important that the Central Asian states link West and East, North and South, bringing the world's civilisations closer together. More specifically, he suggested a new fund for venture capital initiatives within the OTS and generally focusing on digitalisation, high technology and education. For example, to create a centre for digitalisation of OTS based on the international technology park Astana Hub, to hold the second Turkic University Games in 2023, and to form a common educational space for higher educational institutions.

Fourthly, the Kazakh authorities explicitly show interest in the West. Remarkably, three weeks before the elections, the President of European Council Charles Michel visited Kazakhstan and signed an agreement with the Kazakh leadership on the full implementation of the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement between Kazakhstan and the EU. Also, there were productive contacts with the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, EC Vice-President Josep Borrell, and the US Ambassador Daniel Rosenblum.

Obviously, the growing interest in Kazakhstan is due to the disruption of trade chains in Eurasia due to the war in Ukraine. As usual, Russia, the West, China, India, Turkey and Iran are rivals in this big game, albeit sometimes as situational allies. Meanwhile, Josep Borrell openly stated that the EU preferred the former Soviet republics build transit corridors bypassing the Russian Federation. US Ambassador to Astana Rosenblum called Kazakhstan's plans to export oil via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline from 2023 the first step towards alternative supply routes.

It is very difficult to forecast the progress of this confrontation, as the stakes are very high. Therefore, Kazakhstan's re-elected president will clearly have to make difficult decisions both inside the state and in foreign policy.

In the international arena, Kazakhstan will probably continue to try to manoeuvre between different centres of power, but may even reap benefits from this. In general, it largely depends on the development of the global situation, especially in the very complicated Central Asian region.