APOCALYPTIC CHALLENGE

In recent weeks, following the capture of Kherson by the Ukrainian army and the successful advancement of the Ukrainian armed forces in a number of key areas in southern Ukraine, the situation on the front has relatively stabilised. The same is not true for the Russian military attacks on civilian infrastructure, which become increasingly critical. 

Energy system on target

The mayor of Kiev even warned of an apocalyptic scenario for the Ukrainian capital in winter if Russian airstrikes on infrastructure continue.

At the same time, he noted that there was currently no need for residents to evacuate, but urged them to be prepared for any development. City officials claim that Kiev does not have enough heated shelters to accommodate all 3.6 million residents in the event of a full blackout.

"We have prepared about 500 off-grid heating nodes, but for a city of more than 3 million people, 500 points is nothing," the mayor said.

With almost half of the infrastructure damaged, experts warn that if the attacks continue, Ukraine's power system could collapse in a matter of weeks.

Unfortunately, war means hardships and deprivations mostly suffered by the ordinary people. And not only in Ukraine. According to analysts, the EU is a few degrees away from blackouts. It is believed that even a small drop in temperature could lead to large-scale blackouts in France, Finland, Ireland and Sweden.

Meanwhile, short-term blackouts, which came as a shock to many civilians in early October, are now commonplace. For example, small and medium-sized businesses have adapted to the blackouts helping Ukrainians recharge their devices and access the Internet.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmygal said that although energy facilities in three Ukrainian regions had been hit by Russian strikes, the nationwide energy system remained operational and undamaged.

Scheduled power cuts are taking place in Kiev and three other regions—Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk and Odessa. DTEK, Ukraine's largest energy company, stated that it began the introduction of the planned power cuts from December 5.

As of early December, some 6 million households in the war-torn country remained without power supply, President Vladimir Zelensky said.

Many European states are assisting Kiev as much as possible by sending not only heavy weapons, but also generators and transformers.

Thanks to the support from the European Commission, the Energy Community Secretariat has set up the Special Energy Sector Support Fund, which channelises all the funds from countries and organisations to repair and rehabilitate the Ukrainian energy sector. All purchases are conducted through the Energy Security Project of the US Agency for International Development (USAID). Among the main donors are Britain, Germany, Denmark and the Association of European Energy Regulators. The Czech Republic, Austria, France and Switzerland are next in line.

Azerbaijan also handed over 45 transformers and 50 generators to Ukraine. Baku plans to send another batch of humanitarian aid.

However, it largely depends on the quality of supplied energy than its volume. In fact, Ukraine inherited from the Soviet Union a strong energy system with powerful power lines to transport electricity from nuclear power plants. This way USSR made its satellites in Eastern Europe dependent on the Soviet power supplies. That is why the main Ukrainian transformers have a capacity of 750 kV, while those of Ukraine’s European partners mainly have less capacity—500 kV and below. Therefore, there are certain problems with finding special equipment. Among the solution is the direct supply of electricity from Europe. But this can become very expensive for Ukraine. In this case the cost of 1kV of power supply will be roughly 20-40 UAH, while the private consumers in Ukraine pay 1,68 UAH only.

But even in these difficult circumstances, the Ukrainian authorities are trying to cope on their own to bring the necessary equipment into the country.

Sanction war continues

President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, unveiled a new package of sanctions against Russia. The ninth EU sanctions package includes sanctions against nearly 200 individuals, three banks, four TV channels and a number of defence companies.

The EU sanctions list, according to the EU High Representative for Foreign Afairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell, includes "those guilty of military actions, propaganda and disinformation, plundering Ukrainian grain, illegal and inhumane deportations, kidnapping Ukrainian children in Russia and subsequent illegal adoptions". Borrell said that Russian attacks on civilians take place under the supervision and direct command of the political elite. "They are responsible. We will once again hit the Russian military and defence sectors hard. Therefore, I propose to extend sanctions to members of the Russian government, the State Duma and the Federation Council as well," Borrell said.

"We are imposing restrictive measures on news outlets, persons and organisations who are attacking the public space with disinformation, trying to deflect Russia's blame and poisoning people's minds,” Borrell continued. At the same time, he reminded that the European sanctions do not apply to food and fertilizers.

This is not accidental. A new study by the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the World Trade Organisation (WTO) shows that shortage of vital farming resources is associated with a combination of supply chain problems caused by the pandemic as well as the Russian war in Ukraine. Both countries are large exporters of agricultural commodities, including fertilisers and their components. As a result, there is a real crisis in the fertiliser market, caused by shortages and high costs. 

The study argues that shortages will continue into the new year, affecting agricultural production and food security worldwide, especially in regions that rely heavily on imported resources.

Even before the G20 summit, both FAO and WTO made some strong recommendations to the G20 governments to address food and fertilizer supply problems. First of all, they suggest that "every effort should be made to keep fertilizer trade open" so that supplies can reach the countries most in need. It is also vital to avoid price volatility because, according to the US Department of Agriculture, fertilizer accounts for 35 to 36% of farmers' costs when growing major crops such as wheat and maize.

The risks of a wider war worsen the already pessimistic outlook for the food market instability. Russia, for example, has recently begun to accuse Ukraine of using drones to attack its territory.

In response to Moscow's accusations against Washington that the US deliberately supplies lethal weapons to Ukraine to expand the scope of military operations, State Department spokesman Ned Price said that Washington did not provide Ukraine with the means to launch strikes outside the country's borders. "We have not provided Ukraine with weapons to use on Russian territory. We have made it clear that these supplies are for defensive purposes. As Mr. President stated before, we are not providing Ukraine with an opportunity to launch strikes outside its territory," Price said. He added that Washington was not pushing Kiev to carry out such strikes either.

War as a protracted process

Meanwhile, experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have concluded that the Russian leadership is openly preparing Russians that a special operation in Ukraine can be a "lengthy process" and gaining new territories is a weighty outcome for Russia.

President Vladimir Putin had to admit that the special military operation in Ukraine lasted longer than expected. But he said that the Russian army occupied new territories while the Russian nuclear weapons were deterring the escalation of the conflict.

Putin called the annexation of lands a "significant outcome for Russia", noting that the Azov Sea "has become Russia's internal sea". He noted that "Peter the Great fought for ensuring access" to this water body.

When it comes to the nature of the hostilities, experts agree that the Russian side prefers to strengthen its defence line along the entire front, while the Ukrainians are preparing for another large-scale offensive, waiting for the appropriate moment to do so.

Kiev believes that Donbas remains the main front in the fight for Ukraine's independence. "It is the main focus of our enemy's efforts to push through our defence line, to try to go to the rear and seize the entire Ukrainian Donbass; this is the initial plan," Sergey Cherevaty, a representative of the AFU Eastern Group of Forces, said.

Bakhmut and Avdeevka continue to be reported as the hottest points in the Eastern Front. Thanks to the redeployment of troops from Kherson, Russian forces could advance in Donbass. The American Institute for War Studies reported Russian plans to encircle the city. However, it is still difficult to confirm or deny this information.

According to the same source, Russian troops started using Iranian drones more actively to attack Ukrainian territory. At the same time, the drones have been modified for use in winter conditions.

Apparently, the winter military campaign in Ukraine will be tense and each of the sides will have more difficulties in attacking positions. Even before the winter season, it was claimed that no major attacks were expected during this period. Observations suggest that the sides are now intensively preparing for an active phase of the war. Meanwhile, the liberation of the remaining parts of Zaporozhye and Kherson regions remains a principal matter for Ukraine, with the relevant preparations presumably ongoing.  And it looks like the forecasts are coming true.