CLAW-SWORD IN ACTION

Turkish military operations in northern Syria remain one of the most influential factors in the geopolitical development in the Middle East. Meanwhile, a possible reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus ongoing thanks to yet small but tangible efforts will also be instrumental for the future of the region.

Objectives of the operation

On November 20, Türkiye launched the next phase of active fight against Kurdish terrorist organisations operating in northern Syria and Iraq, including PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) and its offshoots YPG (Syrian Kurdish Self-Defence Forces) and SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces). Turkish and world media outlets report on airstrikes on the positions of these groups in Kobani (Ain al-Arab) and other cities in the Syrian provinces of Aleppo, Raqqa and Hassakeh. In addition, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the army had destroyed 45 targets in northern Iraq.

So began the Operation Claw-Sword, Turkish counter-offensive under Article 51 of the UN Charter for the country's right to self-defence. It was launched a week after an explosion in central Istanbul that killed six people and injured more than 80. The investigation confirmed that the PKK and YPG were responsible for the attack.

However, Türkiye's anti-terrorist operation is not limited to air strikes only. Ankara says it is ready to launch a ground offensive in northern Syria at any moment, especially after the Kurdish terrorists launched a missile attack at the Turkish city of Karkamish in the Gaziantep region bordering Syria, claiming also the life of one child.

There are different opinions as to why Türkiye has significantly expanded its counterterrorism efforts at this time. One popular theory is that Operation Claw-Sword is part of an effort by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to boost its and President Erdogan ratings to ensure his win in the upcoming July 2023 presidential election. But regardless of the effect of the military operation on the political positions of AKP and Erdogan personally, it is clear that there are objective reasons behind it. The time for the operation has come because the threats posed by Kurdish terrorism have indeed taken an unprecedented scale. Remarkably, all major political forces in the country maintain a unanimous position on this issue. In particular, the leading opposition party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), fully supported the military offensive in Syria and Iraq.

The objective of the Operation Claw-Sword is to achieve military and strategic goals fully in line with Türkiye's national interests, sovereignty and security. First and foremost, it is an attempt to implement a plan on establishing a 30-kilometer security zone along Türkiye's entire border with Syria. But another relevant point is the external background of the ongoing Turkish military operation, given the expressed dissatisfaction of other key actors in Syrian geopolitics, primarily the US and Russia.

Ankara "will not tolerate hypocrisy"

Washington and Moscow are not happy with Türkiye's military activity in Syria and Iraq because of the fears that it could seriously hit their regional influence. Especially after President Erdogan's statement that Türkiye will not report to other powers for its actions in Syria and Iraq, nor will it tolerate "the hypocrisy of countries that support terrorists".

Obviously, the primary addressee of this statement is the US. Washington has been supporting and arming the YPG for years, realying on the Kurdish forces to implement its geopolitical scenario, which assumes no room for Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity. By patronising the Kurdish groups, Washington does not actually take Ankara's interests into account. Hence Türkiye's intransigent response to the White House's Syrian-Kurdish policy.

Ankara's anti-terrorist fight does not tolerate any double standards, as we can see from Türkiye's demands from both the US and other allies within NATO. For example, Türkiye is seriously testing Sweden and Finland before allowing them admission to NATO. They can enjoy Türkiye's approval only if they renounce any direct or indirect support for Kurdish terrorist groups and activists.

Ankara has a separate demand from Moscow. "Despite our repeated warnings to Russia, which is responsible for clearing the northern parts of Iraq and Syria of terrorists in accordance with our 2019 Sochi agreement, Moscow has not fulfilled its duty and refuses to do so,” President Erdogan said. The Turkish leader made it clear that Operation Claw-Sword was irreversible, among other things, because of Russia's failure to fulfill its commitments.

While critical of the operation, Moscow is unable to respond to Ankara with any solid counter-arguments. But it is trying to contribute to de-escalation by underlining the common ground with Ankara, which shares the commitment to preserve the Syrian state. This is the key factor that contributed to the rapprochement of Türkiye and Russia on the Syrian issue, also thanks to the so-called Astana negotiation format (also includes Iran as one of the guarantors of the peaceful settlement of the Syrian conflict). Both sides have also held political consultations on Syria in Istanbul on December 8 and 9.

Russia's efforts include negotiations with SDF to ensure their withdrawal from Kobani, Tel Rifat and Manbij. According to Alexander Lavrentyev, the Russian president's special envoy for Syria,  Moscow is working to organise a meeting between the Turkish and Syrian presidents. The Turkish media also reported about the possibility of a meeting mediated by Russia.

Will Erdogan and Assad find common ground?

Türkiye suspended any relationship with Syria since the beginning of a civil war in this Arab country in 2011. Angered by the Syrian government's punitive measures against protesters, Ankara supported the opposition movement. Furthermore, Damascus was also blamed for its flirtation with Kurdish organisations targeting Türkiye.

Ankara's ultimate support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic will tangibly contribute to the possible restoration of Turkish-Syrian relations. Another source for dialogue between Ankara and Damascus is their mutual interest in subduing the Syrian Kurds, who are trying to split Syria with the US assistance. In addition, Türkiye looks forward to the return of millions of Syrian refugees it has sheltered for many years.

Despite protests in Damascus against Türkiye's military operations, the Syrian leadership gives signals demonstrating its willingness to improve relations with Ankara. Apparently, they have nothing against the elimination of terrorists, but they demand preliminary agreement of moves with the Syrian government and coordination between the Turkish and Syrian armies.

The ongoing discussion about a likely meeting between the two heads of state is also signalling of optimistic trends in the Turkish-Syrian process. In August 2022, it was expected that the Turkish and Syrian presidents, who have not contacted since 2011, would hold telephone talks. Another chance of meeting was at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan last September. However, Assad did not attend the event. Nevertheless, the possibility of a meeting between the two presidents is still on the table.

Erdogan's call for Assad to open a new page in Turkish-Syrian relations is symbolic. "Politics has no room for eternal bitterness and resentment. In due time, we can sit down to discuss everything and restore previous ties. Türkiye is exploring the available options to normalise poor relations with some countries. After the presidential elections next year, we can rectify this situation and restore relations," President Erdogan said.

The Turkish media reported on Assad’s positive response to the Turkish leader's call for reconciliation. There are even reports of Assad holding a private meeting with Syrian intellectuals, at which he said that the normalisation of relations between Türkiye and Syria was important to counter the "imperialist intervention" in the region. Apparently there are other reasons to expect Turkish-Syrian reconciliation in the near future.