COALITION FOR CHANGES

The new Israeli government was sworn in on December 29, 2022 in Jerusalem. It is considered the most right-wing government in Israeli history. But it was this government that brought Benjamin Netanyahu back to power. Bibi, as the Israeli prime minister is also known, won the elections last November and is set to lead the country's government for the sixth time, cementing his status as Israel's longest-serving prime minister.

A strange coalition?

But Netanyahu’s returning to lead a country that has slightly changed during his absence. There have been major changes of regional and global significance, which also means that running the new government will be much more difficult. This can be seen in the rather motley coalition which the experienced politician managed to establish just a few minutes before the deadline set by the Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog.

The coalition includes extreme right-wing parties, including a leader who was once convicted of anti-Arab racism. Palestinians are afraid that the new government will also strengthen Israel's position in the West Bank.

In fact, Netanyahu's partners in the coalition reject the idea of a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. This peace formula has been supported by the international community and provided for the creation of an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank next to Israel, with Jerusalem as their common capital.

The leader of the Religious Zionist Party, which in alliance with two other extreme right-wing parties won the third of the seats in the Knesset (parliament), wants Israel to have absolute control over the West Bank and seek to expand administrative powers over the region.

Israeli opposition politicians, as well as the country's attorney general, have warned that reforms planned by the new government, including providing MPs with the right to overturn Supreme Court decisions, threaten to undermine the Israeli democracy.

In addition, coalition partners have also proposed legal reforms that could end Netanyahu's ongoing trial on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust. The Israeli prime minister himself denies any wrongdoing on his part.

Of particular concern to the Israeli opposition is the inclusion of the extreme right in the new government.

Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party, is known for calling for liberalised rules allowing security forces to open fire as soon as they identify a threat. Previously accused of inciting racism and supporting a terrorist organisation, he has taken up the post of national security minister.

Another far-right partner in the new Israeli government is Avi Maoz (Noam), who is calling to ban gay parades in Jerusalem, disapproves equal opportunities for women in the army and wants to restrict the immigration of the representatives of sexual minorities to Israel.

No need to worry

Netanyahu himself accuses the critics of his government of unnecessary fear-mongering and has promised to maintain the necessary balance.

"I will hold the helm firmly. I will not allow discrimination against members of the LGBT community or any harm to the rights of our Arab citizens or anything else like that. It's just not going to happen. And time will prove that," Netanyahu said in his interview with the US television channel NPR.

However, some believe that the success of the two far-right religious parties in the last elections and the establishment of a coalition was a process to form a stable right-wing centre that seeks reconciliation with the entire Arab world. Netanyahu's previous governments are believed to have depended on a shaky alliance between the secular right (Likud) and the Haredim (ultra-Orthodox) religious parties. This construct was inherently unstable, because the Haredim for the most part had little interest in strengthening nationalist political forces and lobbied only for subsidies for their communities.

This time, as numerous analysts note, a group of ultra-Orthodox citizens, especially among the young Haredim, voted for the nationalist religious parties. Plus, the extra votes for Netanyahu gave him a solid and possibly stable majority to form the new government.

The recent surge in terrorist activity backed by Hamas and Islamic Jihad has strengthened the electoral base of the right-wing parties.

A rather unpleasant surprise for the new Israeli government was the UN vote on the appeal to the International Criminal Court (ICC) initiated by the Palestinian Authority demanding a legal opinion on the occupation of the West Bank. Although the majority of voters supported the appeal, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu openly stated that his country opposed the decision.

"Today’s despicable decision will not bind the Israeli government. The Jewish nation is not an occupier in its own land and its own eternal capital, Jerusalem,” Netanyahu said.

On November 11, the UN Special Political and Decolonisation Committee approved the Palestinian initiative to seek a legal opinion from the International Court of Justice in the Hague on the prolonged occupation of the West Bank. 98 countries supported the initiative, 17 were against it and 52 abstained.

More important than the UNGA vote, however, is the changing regional situation due to the new alliances that have emerged in recent years and play into the hands of Isarel.

Thanks to the establishment of diplomatic relations and active negotiations with a number of Arab states, restoration of relations with Turkey and the emergence of the Israel-US-UAE-India format, Tel Aviv can now break the political blockade in the region. That is why all the major Israeli parties, especially the national religious parties, agree that the most urgent diplomatic goal of the country is to establish diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, the custodian of the Islamic shrines. Netanyahu argues that normal relations with the Saudi kingdom would establish peace between Israel and the Arab world.

In general, according to Netanyahu, the new coalition government of Israel will revise its foreign policy to make it more compliant with with its national priorities. “Israel will no longer bow head in response to demands for peace,” he said at the conference organised by the Beitar Zionist movement in Jerusalem.

"The world will hear our voice," the Israeli prime minister said announcing a "review of international relations" among other policy changes his newly formed government plans to introduce. "Instead of bowing our heads and giving in to dictates from the international community, we will proudly uphold our interests in the State of Israel and the Land of Israel," he added.

Netanyahu did not mention any specific countries or international organisations that might be affected by this new policy. Nor did he mention the ongoing conflict between Moscow and Kiev. However, the newly appointed Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen announced a change in his country's policy towards Ukraine.

According to the minister, Israel will make fewer public statements on the matter, but still promises Kiev ‘significant’ humanitarian aid. Cohen added that there is no substitute for Israeli-American relations, and called it one of the country's top priorities.

Stance on Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan is also among Israel's new foreign policy priorities, as seen from a collective letter written by leading Israeli politicians, members of the Knesset, to their colleagues in the Azerbaijani parliament. 

"Today Azerbaijan stands shoulder to shoulder with Israel as a reliable security and economic partner. This partnership is the foundation of Israel's regional security system," the official statement said. The document was signed by nine ministers and two deputy ministers in the new Netanyahu government, including high-ranking cabinet members, the National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, Religious Affairs Minister Michael Malkieli and Education Minister Yoav Kish.  

This address to the Azerbaijani parliament was a response to Baku’s decision to open an embassy in Tel Aviv. The document was signed by the Knesset members from eight parties. This is an unprecedented case in Israeli history when solidarity with Azerbaijan united representatives of the coalition and the opposition.

"We share a common and dangerous enemy: Iranian tyranny, threatening to destroy both our nations. The Ayatollah regime, which brutally kills its own citizens and encourages terrorism in the world, is using anti-Semitic propaganda to turn the people of Azerbaijan against secular power, which is respected in the international arena,” the appeal said.

The document also expresses dissatisfaction with the November 15 resolution of the French Senate calling for sanctions against Azerbaijan and an embargo on the purchase of Azerbaijani gas and oil by the EU. "This decision plays into the hands of Iran, which is interested in weakening Azerbaijan, which today is an example of a country with a progressive Muslim-Shiite population, maintaining close ties with Israel and the Western world. We hope that the Senate will reconsider this decision," the appeal said.

Another important marker of Azerbaijan's increasing importance in Israel's foreign policy was the decision to hold a staff meeting of Israeli ambassadors to Eurasia with senior officials from the foreign ministry in Baku on January 6-18, 2023. The previous events were held in Moscow. But amid the Russian-Ukrainian war, Baku has been chosen as an alternative venue for the meeting for the first time. According to media reports, the main theme of consultations will be the plans for 2023 amid the increasingly difficult regional situation both in the context of the war in Ukraine, and the Iranian-Israeli confrontation. Special attention was paid to further strengthening Israeli relations with Muslim countries.

The summit took place shortly after the new Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen took office on January 2. "The year 2023 is a year of opportunities and challenges. Our state enters it with opportunities in the areas of security, intelligence and technology, energy independence and energy reserves, as well as the Abraham Accords, which have proven beneficial for the countries involved," Cohen said in his address. He noted that he favoured foreign policy activism.

As for Azerbaijan, Baku has already appointed Mukhtar Mammadov as a new ambassador to Tel Aviv and expects Israeli foreign policy to open a new page in relations between the two countries.