ARMENIA WILL HAVE TO RESPOND

The world history maintains a whole record of speeches by current and retired politicians that their contemporaries and descendants consider of historical value. One may tag them ‘positive’ or ‘plus’, which is an arguable matter anyway. These include the Fulton speech by Winston Churchill, which is believed to be the starting point of the Cold War, and Ronald Reagan's address to the National Association of Evangelicals in Florida on March 8, 1983, where he coined the term ‘evil empire’ meaning the Soviet Union. Also, Vladimir Putin's speech at the 2007 Munich Conference. The list can be expanded, of course.

There is no doubt that future historians will also call historic the address made by President Ilham Aliyev on December 24, 2022 in front of a group of intellectuals from Western Azerbaijan. President of Azerbaijan clearly and unambiguously outlined a new direction for the country’s strategic policy: Azerbaijan will seek the return of Azerbaijanis who were expelled from Western Azerbaijan, from the territory of present-day Armenia that is, to their native land.

Forgotten tragedy and real timeline

Perhaps, we ought to begin our narrative about the fate of Azerbaijanis expelled from the historical lands in Western Azerbaijan from an earlier date—when the first groups of Azerbaijani refugees began fleeing from Armenia after the rallies in Khankendi (then Stepanakert), where Armenians demanded for miatsum. The former Soviet authorities of Yerevan launched the ethnic cleansing campaign quite deliberately. Armenian authorities were not merely indulging cave nationalism, but were also stifling plans for territorial exchange between Azerbaijan and Armenia, including the Goble Plan. They also wanted to reliably block Azerbaijan's proposals to grant an equal autonomy to Azerbaijanis in Armenia. Yerevan was guided by the ‘no nation—no problem’ principle. And by the way, the expulsion of Azerbaijanis was not bloodless. The number of Azerbaijanis killed in Armenia has never been officially announced, but independent sources report at least two hundred people, including the elderly, women and children...

Until recently, the terrible fate of the Western Azerbaijanis remained essentially an unknown tragedy. Everybody was ranting about the events in Sumgayit, without going into the real details of the provocation. Apparently, no one outside Azerbaijan cared about the hundreds of murdered and hundreds of thousands of expelled Azerbaijanis.

In his address to the intellectuals from Western Azerbaijan, President Ilham Aliyev has significantly expanded the chronological framework of the tragedy of Azerbaijanis on the territory of present-day Armenia. He recalled the deportation of Azerbaijanis from Armenia after the Second World War (1948-1953), calling it a crime of the Soviet authorities against the Azerbaijani people. Obviously, the 1988-1991 ethnic cleansing, which was the last accord in the expulsion of Azerbaijanis from Armenia, was not the only episode. Historians also remind us of the deportation of Azerbaijanis from Vedibasar in 1944, Andranik's bloody raids in Zangezur in 1918-1920 and the 1905 massacre...

Based on these facts, Azerbaijan has every reason to hold accountable not only Armenian nationalists, but also the Soviet authorities also involved in the 1988-1991 ethnic cleansing. True, in contrast to 1946-1953, there was no direct order from the Kremlin to deport Azerbaijanis from Armenia. But unfortunately it did not take any measures to stop the pogroms of Azerbaijanis. Moreover, it was Baku, not Yerevan, which was introduced a curfew followed by a state of emergency. There were no attempts to disarm the bearded Armenian illegal armed groups. The only directive coming from above was to ignore and downplay all these incidents. But now the President of Azerbaijan makes it clear: lest we forget!

The geography of the Azerbaijani issue

The use of the term Western Azerbaijan also hints at a radical turn in Azerbaijan’s policy.

Theoretically, at least some experts could speculate on Azerbaijan possibly raising the issue of the return of Azerbaijanis to Western Zangezur, a strip of land in the Republic of Armenia between the mainland Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. These lands were transferred to Armenia in the 1920s, after the Sovietisation of Azerbaijan. But Ilham Aliyev has clearly said that Baku intended to seek the return of Azerbaijanis to almost the entire territory of Armenia.

There is no secret that Armenia has been created on historical Azerbaijani lands. There was no visible ethnic presence of Armenians on the present territory of the Republic of Armenia up until the first half of the 19th century, that is before these territories became part of the Russian Empire, which created the Armenian Region there soon populated by Armenians from Persia and the Ottoman Empire. But they prefer to forget and erase from history these uncomfortable facts in Armenia in every possible way. Historical names have been destroyed. While the 19th century maps drawn by Russian military topographers do not bear any Armenian name, today the historical Turkic names on the maps of modern Armenia are replaced by invented Armenian ones. Thus, Lake Goycha became Sevan, the Zanga River became Hrazdan, Basarkechar became Vardenis, Istisu became Jermuk and so on. Historical buildings in the cities of modern Armenia have also been destroyed. Any evidence of the historical centre of Yerevan has been removed only because they might reveal the Azerbaijani origin of the city. The Sardar Palace, the Irevan Fortress, six of seven mosques, houses, hamams have been destroyed... Today, Armenian 'urbanisation specilists' are trying to destroy the last piece of historical Yerevan, the Azerbaijani quarter of Tepebashi renamed Kond.                                                            

A new return strategy

Baku does not reveal the uncomfortable pages of history only. In fact, President Aliyev announced the SSecond Great Return, this time to the west of historical Azerbaijan. Baku underlines the peaceful and diplomatic character of its intentions.

Ulviyya Zulfigar, spokesperson for the Western Azerbaijanis Community, provided journalists with the details of registration and damage assessment of the victims of ethnic cleansing in Armenia. "Since the last deportation (1988-1991) occurred recently, we started the process from that period in order to accelerate the evaluation and registration process. Currently, we have a census collected on more than 150 of 300 settlements populated by Azerbaijanis. This is an ongoing process,” Zulfigar said. According to her, they also register details about the Azerbaijanis expelled during the previous deportations (1905, 1918-1920, 1948-1953).

This work is an important part of preparations for the return. Azerbaijan will act peacefully and in line with international conventions referred to by President Ilham Aliyev.  Under the law and in good conscience, the victims of ethnic cleansing and their descendants should be guaranteed the factual right of return, not on paper. Plus, this return must include both security guarantees and compensation for lost property. Baku is committed to involve international lawyers into the process. In the meantime, relevant authorities are compiling lists, assessing damages and preparing documents.

Observers in and outside Azerbaijan already know that if the Azerbaijani president has promised something, he will keep his word.