PENDING OFFENSIVE

February 24 will mark the first anniversary of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Over the past months, Ukraine has not only managed to stop the advance of Russian troops, but also liberated 40% of the territories occupied after February 24, almost 40,000 square kilometres. That is about 28 per cent of the whole Ukrainian territory. All forces are now focused on preparing a decisive counter-offensive to liberate all the territories.

You can never have too many tanks

In order to implement large-scale plans for a counter-offensive along the entire frontline, which stretches for almost 1,200 km, the Ukrainian army needs large quantities of equipment, especially tanks.

For months, Ukrainian officials have repeatedly demanded modern battle tanks from the West, similar to those produced in the US and Germany.

"I can thank you hundreds of times, and it would be absolutely fair and just, considering everything we have already done," Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said during a video conference with defence ministers in Ramstein, Germany. "But hundreds of thanks do not mean hundreds of tanks," he said. In fact, the Ukrainian leader made it clear that the most desired form of support for Kiev is the transfer of modern strike equipment, particularly tanks, to Ukraine.

Debate have focused on German tanks Leopard-2 used in some 20 countries, including more than a dozen NATO members.

The Leopard-2 is one of the most famous tanks in the world, second perhaps only to the American-made M1 Abrams. The Leopard-2 was developed in the 1970s for the West German Army during the Cold War. They are designed to move quickly over varied terrain and counter enemy armoured vehicles - similar to the Russian ones used in Ukraine.

The tank is equipped with a 120mm .44 or .55 calibre main guns and a 1,500hp engine, accelerating it to up to 74mph. Around 60 tonnes of armour protects the crew from enemy fire. Among the countries operating Leopard-2s is Poland, which has pledged to send 14 of these tanks to Ukraine and has already received permission from the manufacturer of these vehicles, Germany.

Since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war last February, tanks have demonstrated a great performance. Previously, Ukraine relied mainly on Soviet T-72s. But as those became out of service, Western countries began to dispatch an increasing number of armoured vehicles to the country, having been committed to increase the supplies. These includes the American Bradley and Stryker fighting vehicles, as well as the British Challenger-2 tanks.

In terms of accuracy, firepower and mobility, German tanks have an advantage over their American and British counterparts. It is no coincidence that Ukrainian officials claim these tanks to be the key to Ukraine's quick victory, perhaps even this year.

Thus, Kiev has welcomed the news of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s okay to transfer 14 Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine, as well as the readiness of a number of other states to do the same. The same news was received with concern in Moscow, though. The Kremlin warned that relations with Berlin could deteriorate further.

It's hard to learn...

According to Western media estimates, Germany and its partners may transfer 88 Leopard-2s to Ukraine. Meanwhile, retired US Army Lieutenant General Ben Hodges said: "There is no silver bullet. There is nothing that can completely change the whole conflict.”

Experts say it could take several months to deliver all the promised tanks. The spokesman of the German Defence Ministry said the training could begin "most likely this month" but no later than early February. He added that the objective was to make sure that Ukraine could integrate main battle tanks into its defence line by the end of this quarter. Nevertheless, these tanks may be helpful in the spring, when both sides are expected to move into action.

Late last year, the US announced that it would train large units of the Ukrainian army in combined arms tactics. It is expected that they practice large-scale military operations involving the simultaneous use of different types of weapons, including aviation, artillery and armoured vehicles.

So far, Russia's main achievement in the war has been the control over the Ukrainian territory between Donbass and Crimea. Russia had controlled Crimea since March 2014. Before the full-scale war, the only link between Crimea and Russia was a long road and railway bridge. After seizing Mariupol and the territories around it, Russian forces have essentially established a land bridge as well.

This territory can become the site of a new Ukrainian counteroffensive. At the same time, the Ukrainian side makes no secret of Crimea being Kiev’s main target in the expected military action.

Western tanks are necessary to build up the capacity of the Ukrainian Army. Without them, it would be impossible to carry out high-intensity counteroffensives in some directions.

Administrative reforms

Preparations for the counteroffensive are running in parallel with regrouping of forces in the Ukrainian administrative structures. President Zelensky has so far replaced a number of senior officials in his administration and regions. He has also signed a decree allowing civil servants to travel outside the country on business trips during mobilisation and martial law.

Just before the reforms, Zelensky warned about the expected structural changes in the government and security services following numerous corruption scandals. The EU has called the anti-corruption reforms as one of the key requirements for Ukraine's EU membership after granting Kiev a candidate status last year.

Ukrainian economy has diminished by a third in 2022 and the country is heavily dependent on financial aid from the West. Donors, including the International Monetary Fund and the European Union, have repeatedly called for greater transparency and better governance. Critics of the Ukrainian government in the West have explicitly linked further economic aid to the effectiveness of anti-corruption reforms.

Just days before the announcement of large-scale resignations, there emerged reports of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry buying food for soldiers at inflated prices, raising questions about the transparency of the state procurement process. That’s why the Verkhovna Rada committee decided to tighten procurement rules and make public some of the prices for purchases made during the conflict.

The National Anti-Corruption Bureau stated that it was investigating possible misappropriation of funds or abuse of power during procurements, which allegedly exceed 13b Ukrainian hryvnyas ($352m). At the same time, Ukrainian Defence Minister Alexei Reznikov told the committee that the reports of corruption in the ministry were based on a "technical error".

The Ukrainian anti-corruption police stated that they had detained the Deputy Minister of Infrastructure on suspicion of receiving $400,000 for facilitating the import of generators to Ukraine's military in September last year. The deputy minister was removed from his post.

In addition, Deputy Prosecutor-General Alexei Simonenko resigned after the reports of his holiday voyage to Spain in December and January in a Mercedes, which belonged to a businessman from Lvov.

It is assumed that the dismissals of high-ranking government officials will continue and corrupt officials will be "actively" jailed. In fact, the Ukrainian president has warned about large-scale reforms. "We have already adopted decisions on officials working at different levels in ministries and other central power structures, as well as in the regions and in the law-enforcement system," Zelensky said. Ukraine was ranked 122nd out of 180 countries in Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index 2021.

Washington to say the last word

US President Joe Biden's speech was an important event amid the developments in and around Ukraine. He confirmed the previously spread information on Washington’s decision to provide Ukraine with 31 battle tanks Abrahms. However, he immediately made it clear that this was not a threat against Russia.

Remarkably, up until recently, Washington had not confirmed its plans. Moreover, the US politicians and military officials have argued that the tanks were heavy, difficult to operate and unlikely to help the Ukrainian army.

The situation began to change after a number of NATO countries, especially Poland, France and the UK, agreed to provide Kiev with their tanks. Later, Germany joined the team. Washington could not stand aside. Biden just said that he agreed to this move after he was asked to do so by the US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin. The US is the leading country of the Ukraine support group (Ramstein) and cannot stay at the tail of the aid campaign to Kiev. The White House has made it clear: this has been done before and this will be the case from now on.