CANDIDATE OF THE CENTURY

Presidential and parliamentary elections in Türkiye have been slated for May 14, 2023. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced this on January 23 in Bursa during his meeting with youth for whom these elections will be the first ever. They indeed will be decisive and historically important in many ways and will take place in the centenary anniversary of the founding of the Republic of Türkiye.

Why May 14?

During his meeting with the youth, Erdogan explained his decision to hold the presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14 instead of June 18, as previously planned. He indicated seasonal agricultural works, the planned contest for civil servants and summer exams for students as the main reasons of date shifting. President called the upcoming event historically significant, as the first multiparty elections in Turkish history were held on May 14, 1950, which was won by the Democratic Party led by Adnan Menderes.

"On that day, on May 14, 1950, the late Menderes said: "Enough is enough, let the people talk!" and won the election by a wide margin. 73 years later, our nation will once again say 'enough' to all kinds of rebels and butterfingers supporting the six candidates," Erdogan said.

In fact, the one-party system when the government was formed by the Republican People's Party (CHP) has been in effect for quite a long time after the establishment of the Republic of Türkiye. After World War II, however, the government has relieved the conditions, allowing for a transition to a multi-party system of government in 1946. This has given birth to a number of new parties, with the Democratic Party led by Adnan Menderes winning the 1950 elections and ending the years of the CHP rule.

Comparing the May 14, 2023 elections to those won by Menderes, Erdogan calls CHP and the rest of the opposition rebels, supporters of coup, a force in limbo. That is how allegorically he declared the upcoming elections to be a struggle against the CHP, same as it was back in 1950.

Thanks to years of electoral experience, President Erdogan understands that another victory for a twenty-year-old ruling party with himself as its leader requires slogans that refer to the country's historical past and are able to influence all segments of the Turkish society. In this context, slating the date of the elections for May 14th is not a coincidence. Menderes was a popular candidate whom the people has counterposed the twenty-seven years of the single-party rule of CHP. Thanks to his accession to power Türkiye has taken its first steps towards democratic transformation, including religious freedoms, etc. Moreover, like Menderes, Erdogan's main rival is CHOP, too. The only difference is that Menderes' rival was the ruling party, while the present CHP is in opposition.

Another characteristic of the upcoming election is that it is Erdogan's last. Although he first became the president of Türkiye in 2014, he has only been re-elected once, in 2018, following a 2017 constitutional referendum on the transition to a presidential form of government. The 2023 elections will therefore give Erdogan a chance for his final term in office. He has stated this himself, too.

Another important point is that the elections will take place in the centenary anniversary of the Republic of Türkiye. Whether the republic spends its anniversary under the rule of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) or another party will depend on the outcome of the vote, which can influence Erdogan's twenty-year political course both within Türkiye and abroad. In this regard, the ongoing electoral campign in Türkiye is being watched closely and with great interest both at home and abroad.

Main slogans

As always, the incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be the protagonist of the government's election campaign. Türkiye's accomplishments under Erdogan, who had been a prime minister until 2014 and president for the next nine years, including in the foreign policy, development of the military industry and road transport infrastructure, huge growth in exports etc. are the government's main trump cards.

The government does not forget the needs of ordinary citizens either. A sharp increase in the minimum wage, a new pension reform and the announcement of the biggest debt amnesty in the history of the country are the measures the ruling party have planned well in advance the elections.

On January 23, the government abolished all penalties and fines of citizens due to state agencies. In addition, as a result of debt restructuring, the Turkish nationals will be able to repay their debts to state-run enterprises in instalments. By December 1, 2022, all debts not exceeding 2,000 TL will be written off.

Through these measures, the government is trying to compensate for the loss of votes caused by social and economic discontent and inflation.

However, it is clear from the president's statements and the planned election date that Erdogan's campaign will be predominantly based on political and ideological theses.

Incidentally, the ruling party reviving discussions on a constitutional amendment that would completely abolish restrictions on wearing headscarves is targeting the religious strata of Turkish society. Thus, the 2023 election campaign will be dominated by slogans calling for the preservation of achievements of the incumbent conservative government of Türkiye, including foreign policy accomplishments. For the victory of the opposition would mean the abolishment of existing policies. Therefore, Erdogan will try to secure the support of traditional conservative voters being his main target audience. Especially conservative religious and nationalist circles, also thanks to the failed 2016 military coup.

Government’s second significant target audience is the youth. Turkish authorities have been analysing the importance of youth participation in elections for more than a year. And for good reason, since, according to various estimates, 4.9 million young Turkish citizens (7 million in total) will be voting this year for the first time. Compared to the total number of voters (64 million), this number will not have a significant impact on the vote outcome, but it cannot be disregarded. One should take into account the very different positions of young people on politics. They have all been born and raised during the Erdogan rule. They have not seen Türkiye's past and been eyewitnesses of events the incumbent government is criticised for. The new generation has very different tastes, perception of life and demands. Everyone in Türkiye, especially the government, is well aware of this fact. Therefore, the ruling party, as well as the opposition, will try to address the youth with a specifically tailored programme.

Erdogan = ?

The presidential candidate of the ruling People's Union bloc, which unites AKP and its ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), is known already. It will be the current President of Türkiye, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who himself announced this himself. He continues to hold rallies and meetings as part of his election campaign.

Yet, the opposition does not seem to be in a hurry. The opposition will decide on a single candidate in late January and will announce his name in early February, some media outlets reported based on political sources. However, it is possible that this happens soon or later. The opposition's delay in nominating a single candidate can be explained by a number of factors.

Firstly, the delay might mean the opposition trying to keep itself on the spotlight, drawing more public attention to the issue.

Secondly, the opposition is interested in delaying the announcement in order to learn the opinion of voters dissatisfied with the current government and then to decide on a single candidate who will be accepted and supported by at least an overwhelming majority of the voters.

Thirdly, this way the opposition is trying to minimise the risk of a smear campaign by their rivals targeting the candidate and his entourage. Thus, in the previous two presidential elections, single opposition candidates (Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu in 2014 and Muharrem Ince in 2018) have been subject to severe attacks by the ruling circles, which eventually had an impact on their election campaigns.

Finally, the process of identifying the right candidate is difficult in and of itself. Türkiye is a country with rich experience in organising and conducting democratic elections, and has repeatedly become a scene of intense electoral campaigns. The alternative to the opposition is the incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a politician with a twenty-year experience of victorious campaigns and an indispensable master of electoral battles. Undoubtedly, the first successful step, and in fact the key to the opposition's success in the upcoming elections, is to identify the right candidate. Because a single opposition candidate will inevitably face a strong opponent with vast experience and powerful administrative, financial and media resources.

Furthermore, the opposition itself is quite heterogeneous in terms of composition. The current opposition bloc tentatively called the Table for Six includes political organisations coming from diverse backgrounds: left-wing, religious, centre-right and nationalist. Determining the leader who will get the support of all these groups, and more importantly millions of Turkish voters, is an important factor that will determine the fate of the vote. In other words, the candidate must be chosen unmistakably, and each of the opposition groups must be satisfied with the result of this choice.

One of three Republicans

Interestingly, all three opposition nominees for president represent the CHP. One of them is the incumbent party chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Although his candidacy has not been officially confirmed, Kilicdaroglu has been holding meetings with public representatives in various cities of Türkiye and voicing political theses and pre-election slogans.

Mayor of Ankara, Mansur Yavas, is listed as the second CHP nominee. A former MHP member, Yavas has been the mayor of the Turkish capital for four consecutive years, earning himself the status of the country's best mayor.

The third opposition nominee is Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul. He was sentenced to two years and seven months in prison some time ago, which created a legal obstacle to his candidacy for the presidency. But his age (Imamoglu is younger than the two previous candidates), proximity to conservative circles and leadership of a major city such as Istanbul increase his chances for success. In addition, the second strongest opposition party, IYI, led by Meral Akshener, also welcomes Imamoglu's nomination.

Unlike Imamoglu, Yavas is considered a candidate closer to nationalist circles in Türkiye. Despite his good prospects, Yavas prefers to run a modest campaign, telling journalists that he does not intend to run against Kilicdaroglu until the announcement of a joint decision on a single presidential candidate.

Currently, Kemal Kilicdaroglu (74), the leader of Türkiye's largest opposition party, is the most likely candidate to be elected a president. During his leadership, the party has increased the number of its supporters. In the last municipal elections, CHP won mayoral elections in three of the country's largest cities. Now Kilicdaroglu is nominating himself as a presidential candidate and as a leader willing to make a transition to a new political period in order to return the country to a parliamentary system of government. In this context, his chances to become a single opposition candidate seem higher than those of other nominees. But, of course, the final decision will be made by the consensus reached between the parties' top management and at the general congress of party leaders. However, less time is left until the elections each passing day.