FRIGHTENING REALITY

For many years, the political situation in and around Iran could have been described as a low-intensity chronic crisis with escalations. But now it is developing super quick, as if a dam broke. This apparently frightens the leadership of neighbouring Armenia as much as it frightens Iran's own leadership.

Armenia has had very close and warm relations with the Iranian authorities since the collapse of the USSR. Whereas Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have renounced diplomatic relations with Armenia, Iran has seen no shame in doing so. It opened its embassy in Yerevan and established a multilateral partnership with Armenia, which included a military component as well as cooperation between special services and much more. It is true that it has been impossible to build these political relations upon a sufficiently impressive economic foundation. But both Yerevan and Tehran have preferred to ignore this factor. Iranian leaders refrained from visiting Armenia, but Armenia's top leaders appeared in Iran regularly.

From Iranian hopes to Iranian shock

Many believe that the political relations between Iran and Armenia has reached its climax. Anna Hakopian, the wife of Nikol Pashinian, who claims to be Armenia's first lady, has travelled to Iran. Officially, she intended to join the first international congress of influential women. In reality, however, the goal was to demonstrate the unprecedented level of friendship between Tehran and Yerevan.

Anna Hakopian, dressed in line with the Islamic dress code, visited Fatimah Mosuma's mausoleum in one of Iran's holy cities, Qom, and had a meeting with the spouse of Iranian President Jamileh Alamolhoda. It is unlikely that the ladies discussed anything serious during these meetings. Even amid the rumours of dismissal of Armenian generals at the request of Madame Hakopian during the 44-day war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. However, the forum participants undoubtedly succeeded in demonstrating their friendship. This caused outrage in Baku. Does it mean that those who kept pigs in mosques in the occupied Azerbaijani lands become the closest and most valuable partners of Iran?!

The next manifestation of friendship was observed at the end of January. The day before the terrorist attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Iran, an Armenian MP from Robert Kocharian’s bloc Hayastan, Asprum Krpeyan, the head of the Artsakh Diocese of the Armenian Church, Archbishop Vrtanes Abramian and Gegham Stepanian, the so-called Ombudsman of Nagorny Garabagh visited Iran at the invitation of the Diocesan Council of the Tehran Diocese of the Armenian Church. On January 27, hours after the attack on the Azerbaijani diplomatic mission, both took part in the rally organised by the Armenian diaspora, demanding the opening of the Lachin corridor. It is the same corridor Iranian heavy goods vehicles and Iranian special service officers used to travel to Khankendi. Remarkably, Iranian authorities did not even bother to cancel the rally amid general tension in relations. On January 29, as the evacuation of the Azerbaijani diplomatic mission was nearing completion, guests from Yerevan joined a soiree complaining about the mythical blockade of the Lachin-Khankendi road.

Apparently, Armenia was particularly pleased with the development. After all, they were seriously expecting a full-scale conflict between Azerbaijan and Iran, hoping that it would reverse the current situation and ensure Armenia’s military revenge in Garabagh with the reoccupation of lands.

It is true that Yerevan was aware of the retaliatory joint military exercises between the Azerbaijani and Turkish armies, analytical memos on the poor state of the Iranian army equipped with weapons left over from the Shah period, lagging behind the Azerbaijani and Turkish armies by more than a generation. But they did not pay any attention to this. Nor did they heed the developments right before the 44-day war, when Iran provided real military support to Armenia. Incidentally, among other things, Tehran also provided intelligence during the September 2022 skirmish, as disclosed by the Armenian deputy foreign minister Vahan Kostanian. Yerevan was in no doubt that Iran was the country that would wage war against Azerbaijan over Armenian territorial appetites. That would be a very timely move amid the growing frustration with Moscow's behaviour. Despite Yerevan's exhortations and demands, Russia is in no hurry to get involved in the conflict siding with Armenia. Therefore, the emergence of Iran as a ‘new hope’ was most welcome.

But... Unexpectedly, on the night of January 29, unidentified UAVs hit a military factory in Isfahan. And this dashed Yerevan's hopes.

The red line that no one noticed

The military solution to the problem has regularly surfaced amid the worsening of situation around Iran. There were sanctions imposed on Tehran, occasional discussions about the risk of a military operation against Iran in the media and the expert community. That’s it! The whole idea would boil down to ‘Yes, we ain’t gonna war with Tehran, but they better not be too confident about it’.

Meanwhile, the missile attack on the Isfahan plant leaves no doubt that the scenario that would seem dangerous even theoretically is now becoming a reality. It is not war yet. The US aircraft carriers have not been ordered to move to Iranian shores; there are no strategic bombers in the sky. Nor has Tehran received an ultimatum. But it is undoubtedly a major rehearsal, a kind of militaristic test. Its results could prove disastrous for both Armenia and Iran. Iranian air defense systems have failed to defend their airspace from uninvited guests and strategic facilities. Moreover, the Iranian army, despite all the loud statements, did not dare to conduct retaliatory strikes, realising very well that it would be suicidal. Nor did Tehran get the support of the Muslim community, for the strike on Iran was simply ignored in most capitals. Tehran's opponents crossed the red line, but hardly anyone noticed.

As a result Yerevan is seriously frightened. It is beginning to realise that Iran cannot even defend itself. It is unlikely that it takes care of Armenia either. A military operation against Iran is becoming a frightening reality.

Meanwhile, the sanctions against Iran will be tightened. Given that Tehran is openly using Armenia to circumvent sanctions amid Washington’s warning of sanctions applying to third countries as well, Yerevan has much to fear.