IN TIME FOR GOOD FRIDAY

When describing the methods that the frequently changing British governments used to solve problems in recent years, British journalists quote the famous politician Denis Healey: "When you are in a hole, stop digging". He mainly referred to relations with the EU that London tried to negotiate with using, for some reason, threats, blackmail and hysterics, but not compromises acceptable to both sides.

Another British politician once lamented: "...it has become generally accepted that one can only get what one wants from Brussels if one takes a very hostile approach". Liz Truss even bragged that she could not decide whether Macron was "a friend or a foe".

Boris Johnson prevented Theresa May from reaching an agreement with the EU on Brexit because of her opposition on the status of Northern Ireland, but ended up signing an agreement that included... the same position.

For sure, it was not the best solution, but in those circumstances it was probably the only one. It provided for a free borderline between Northern Ireland, a part of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland, a member of the EU. Both sides agreed to this condition, as they did not want to disturb the fragile peace on the island following the April 10, 1998 Belfast agreement between Catholics and Protestants known as the Good Friday.

As a result, the border ended up being "sealed" inland - between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. This means customs inspections and the compliance with the EU economic rules on the island, including the supremacy of the European Court of Justice. This was done to prevent goods from the UK, which had voluntarily withdrawn from the single European market, from crossing the free border with the Republic of Ireland without customs clearance.

Both Brussels and London realised that this measure was temporary, imperfect, and something had to be done taking into account the interests of both sides. In fact, tough customs inspection has not become effective since. Initially the EU agreed to suspend it, and then London did it unilaterally, explaining that it was not ready and did not want to create problems for itself in this region.

But the problems were not just economic. The Sinn Féin party, which advocated a united Ireland and secession from Britain, won the Northern Ireland Legislative Assembly elections last May for the first time in its 100-year history. But under the power-sharing agreement, Catholic and Protestant representatives must govern the region together. However, the defeated Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) refused to take part until the border problems are resolved. Overall, relations between London and Brussels, as well as between London and Belfast, are strained to the breaking point.

Instead of reassuring all sides, Boris Johnson threatened Brussels that the UK would pass legislation unilaterally abrogating the agreement he had signed earlier with the EU. He was backed by Liz Truss, the country's record-breaking short-term leader. The law was sent to the parliament for approval last summer but has been "stuck" in the House of Lords.

Rishi Sunak decided to break with the confrontational strategy of his predecessors. He reduced the rhetoric in his negotiations with the EU by dropping threats and, as Brussels noted, resurrected two words that Johnson and Truss had buried: trust and compromise.

As a result, he succeeded where Johnson failed.

Stormont brake

On February 27, in Windsor, near one of the King's residences, the British Prime Minister and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed on a document called the Windsor Agreement. This was made possible by both sides making compromises on three key areas of implementation of the November 2019 Protocol on Northern Ireland.

The biggest gain of the new agreement will be the creation of a "green belt" for the vast majority of goods entering Northern Ireland from the UK. Any products for the Northern Ireland market only will be exempt from all physical checks and almost all customs documents.

Only goods that are at high risk of further access to the EU market through the Republic of Ireland will be checked and declared.

In order to benefit from customs benefits, traders must become trusted traders, provided that they guarantee the final destination of their goods for sale or use be exclusively the Northern Ireland.

In turn, Brussels will have real-time access to a database tracking the movement of goods between the UK and Northern Ireland. Otherwise, the EU could suspend the system. The UK will do the same if customs benefits for trusted traders cease to apply in the EU.

The second element of the agreement concerns the part of the 2019 protocol that requires Belfast to comply with EU rules on state aid, VAT and taxation. All of these issues are now likely to be resolved on a case-by-case basis following negotiations between UK, EU and Northern Ireland.

According to the Protocol, the European Court of Justice was responsible for monitoring the application of the EU law in Northern Ireland. Under the new agreement, disputes must first be heard by a Northern Irish court or an independent commission, which will then consult the European Court of Justice on EU law. The European Court of Justice will retain its status as "final arbiter". But Brussels is expected to promise that cases will only be referred to the European Court of Justice as a "last resort".

Finally, the agreement extends the powers of the Northern Ireland Assembly to oversee the new EU rules on goods circulation, dubbed the "Stormont brake". The NI Parliament will now be able to "pull the emergency brake" to stop the application of the new EU single market rules if 30 out of 90 MPs from at least two parties oppose the measures. If the 30-vote threshold is reached, the UK government can veto the new laws.

Overthrowing Sunak

The Windsor Agreement was welcomed by the majority of MPs. Labourites and other main opposition parties agreed to support it. So did the vast majority of Conservative MPs, including those most committed to Brexit. The DUP has not yet done so. But there is a good chance that the decision will be positive. Roland Muirhead, leader of the Scottish National Party (the UK's third largest party in the parliament) has also expressed support for the bill, while asking the prime minister why "Scotland does not have the same options".

The loudest criticism of the agreement came from Boris Johnson, who said it would be "very difficult" for him to vote for the deal because it "does not return control". And everyone understands what kind of control he means. His plan was clear - Sunak would either fail to reach an agreement with the EU, or he would do so on terms that many Conservative MPs would reject.

George Osborne, the former chancellor, believes Johnson is solely interested in becoming prime minister again: "He wants to bring down Rishi Sunak and he will use any instrument to do it. If the Northern Ireland negotiations are that instrument, he will pick that up and hit Mr. Sunak over the head with it."

But it turns out that Johnson does not have many supporters. And so the chances of him returning to Downing Street are looking increasingly vague.

Many politicians who supported Johnson and other Brexit supporters seem to have concluded that the country wants to move on. In 2019, during the Brexit-related wars with the EU that eventually led to Theresa May's resignation, two-thirds of British voters saw leaving the EU as the most important issue facing the country. This figure now fluctuates between 15 and 20 per cent.

Sunak bet on Conservative MPs who recognised that continuing the Brexit debate ahead of the next election (possibly in 2024) would be suicidal and that the agreement he secured was better than the alternative proposed by Johnson. It appears that Sunak has managed to neutralise Johnson as a destabilising force for his government.  "We don't need this bill and we have no credible basis for its implementation," he said in Parliament, referring to Johnson's brainchild, and the Tory majority backed him.

What's next?

The Joint Committee on the Withdrawal Agreement will meet in the coming weeks to agree on the practical steps to ensure the implementation of the Windsor Agreement. This means that there is not yet a clear timetable for its implementation.

Both Britain and the EU are keen to put an end to the negotiating process before the unofficial deadline of April 10, the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday.