FROM DISCORD TO CONSENT

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry's visit to Türkiye on February 27 was interpreted as another step towards restoring relations between the two countries. A similar attempt at reconciliation was made in terms of Turkish-Greek relations after the notorious February 6 earthquake in Türkiye.

Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu welcomed his Egyptian counterpart at the airport of Mersin, where Shoukry arrived to visit the earthquake zone. Cavusoglu said that a new page opened between Egypt and Türkiye, and the meeting between presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi in Qatar in November 2022 was a very fruitful attempt in this direction. Cavusoglu also noted that the development of relations is important not only for the two countries, but also for the stability and development of the region as a whole.

Minister Shoukry believes that ties between the two countries will only get better, as there is a strong will on both sides. "Egypt will always stand by its brothers in Türkiye. I believe our relations will reach the highest level from now on," Shoukry said.

According to many observers, both Türkiye and Egypt are interested in improving relations. In this sense, Shoukry's visit to Mersin can also be regarded as a continuation of the softening process launched in 2020.

When "Brothers" intervened

A significant share of the history of Egypt is directly associated with the Ottoman Turks. After the conquest of Egypt in 1517, it remained part of the Ottoman Empire for almost four hundred years. After the fall of the empire and the birth of new states in the early twentieth century, there was no intimacy between Türkiye and Egypt. However, Gamal Abdel Nasser's ascent to power in Egypt after he ousted the monarchy in 1953, the establishment of republic, and rapprochement with the USSR cooled the relations between the two countries.

The situation did not change even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, under President Hosni Mubarak. On the contrary, in 2003, Egypt signed an agreement with Israel and Cyprus on the exploitation and export of energy resources in the Mediterranean, which was contrary to Türkiye's interests.

Türkiye's relations between Ankara and Cairo developed rapidly in the early 2000s, especially after the so-called Arab Spring. The rapid intensification of Türkiye's foreign policy during this period was followed by the development of ties with Arab countries. Türkiye and its Islamist leadership became an example of Muslim-democratic rule for Arab countries.

The revolution in Egypt, which resulted in the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak on February 11, 2011, seriously changed the status quo in relation to Türkiye. The Muslim Brotherhood soon won the elections, with its leader Mohammed Morsi elected president in the summer of 2012.

During Morsi's rule, Turkish-Egyptian relations developed at the highest level. He even cancelled the agreement signed by his predecessor Mubarak in 2003 with the Greeks and the Israelis.

In 2013, however, Egypt experienced another coup, which overthrew Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood and resulted in protests by their supporters being violently suppressed by the army. Ankara strongly condemned the coup and its aftermath. Turkish politicians and media strongly criticised what happened in Egypt, including the army and its commander, the country's incumbent president, al-Sisi. Cairo's attitude towards the Turkish position was negative. Both countries recalled their ambassadors, followed by the level of relations dropping to unprecedented lows.

Factors hindering reconciliation

Many point to Ankara's harsh statements and diplomatic moves against the Egyptian government after 2013 as the main reason behind the cooling of relations between the two countries. But this is not the only factor; there are others that are more important.

Until recently, one of the main reasons for the strained Turkish-Egyptian relations has been the problem of the Muslim Brotherhood. It is no secret that the Turkish government has maintained close ties with this oldest political Islamic movement in the Muslim world. Organised in almost all Muslim countries, the movement is still a nightmare for the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf that largely supported the current President al-Sisi and the 2013 coup he launched in Egypt. Cairo has for years accused Ankara of patronising the "brothers" and giving them asylum. Meanwhile, Ankara has deported or imprisoned many supporters of the organisation in recent years. Thus, it was one of the effective steps towards Turkish-Egyptian rapprochement.

Another factor that hindered reconciliation between Ankara and Cairo was the question of Libya. Türkiye and Qatar supported the Islamist government operating in western Libya, while Egypt and other Arab countries of the region supported the government headquartered in Tobruk. In the summer of 2020, Ankara-backed forces managed to advance into central Libya, raising tensions between Egypt and Türkiye to a new high. It was possible to reduce the tension after agreeing on a ceasefire.

The last cause of tension between the two countries was the energy resources discovered in the Eastern Mediterranean and their exploitation. In response to the trilateral alliance between Egypt, Israel and Greece, Türkiye signed an agreement with the official Libyan government on November 28, 2019 on the demarcation of sea boundaries in the Mediterranean. The document effectively divided the sea between Türkiye and Libya, eliminated the watershed between Egypt and Greece and put the Egypt-Greece gas pipeline project into question. Thus, the Turkish-Libyan agreement further complicated the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Why reconciliation is important

Politics does not have eternal friends or enemies, only interests. The long-standing enmity between the two leading countries of the Eastern Mediterranean did not suit either side. A change in the geopolitical environment pushed them towards a compromise.

The reconciliation between the Arab countries themselves established after defusing tensions between Qatar and the Gulf countries facilitated this process in the first place. Türkiye rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and the UAE further facilitated the reconciliation with Egypt.

Secondly, the complicated situation in the Mediterranean and the deepening confrontation drove both countries into a stalemate. In order to untie the tight Mediterranean knot, it was necessary to compromise and find some kind of common ground.

Another factor that accelerated the reconciliation process was the announcement by the Muslim Brotherhood, which is one of the main causes of tensions in Turkish-Egyptian relations, of its official withdrawal from political processes.

Currently, Libya remains the only urgent issue between Ankara and Cairo. However, since the announcement of a ceasefire and the establishment of a joint government in Libya, tensions have significantly decreased. At the same time, the political stalemate observed in the country since the autumn of 2021 has affected the process of Turkish-Egyptian rapprochement. Egyptian Foreign Minister, Sameh Shoukry, made it clear then that Ankara was not taking any steps to change its policy in Libya and therefore the reconciliation process between Türkiye and Egypt would be put on hold.

Apparently, such stumbling blocks in Turkish-Egyptian relations are inevitable as long as there is no unified national government in Libya. But in fact, both Ankara and Cairo are taking these conditions into account, demonstrating more realistic approaches to the situation, which is encouraging and increases hope for a positive outcome. The reconciliation process has taken quite long indeed.

Thorny path to reconciliation

Reports on the reconciliation process have throng both the Turkish and Egyptian media outlets since 2020. But it was the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu that announced in the spring of 2021 the establishment of contacts between the intelligence services and foreign ministries of Türkiye and Egypt. The statement was followed by the first telephone conversation between Egyptian and Turkish foreign ministers in many years. It was actually the first highest-level contact between the countries since the 2013 coup.

The presidents of both countries first met in November 2022, marking a new phase in bilateral relations. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Egyptian counterapart Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi met at a reception held at the Al Bayt Stadium in Doha during the Qatar World Cup. Photographs showed the two leaders shaking hands and chatting. Meanwhile, the Egyptian online portal Cairo-24 stated that in addition to the momentary meeting, Erdogan and al-Sisi held talks at the table and discussed the future of relations between the countries. Later, the presidents watched a match between Qatar and Ecuador together.

On his way back from Qatar, Erdogan described his contact with President al-Sisi as "the first step of a new era", expressing his confidence that the process would reach formal summit meetings. The administration of the Egyptian president reacted to these words as follows: "The handshake between Erdogan and al-Sisi will be the beginning of bilateral relations."

According to the Saudi media, the Turkish-Egyptian reconciliation process will continue at the level of meetings between foreign ministers of both countries in March and their presidents until May.  The earthquake in Türkiye appears to have accelerated the bilateral rapprochement. The decision to hold presidential and parliamentary elections in Türkiye in May this year is likely to influence the date of the presidential summit. It is likely to be held after the elections.

As we can see, both Egyptian and Turkish authorities are interested in building relations, to continue the reconciliation process. It is quite likely that we will see the rapprochement between the two countries evolve in the coming months, unless something fundamentally changes the situation in Libya. Plus, the expanding trade and economic ties between Türkiye and Egypt in the last ten years raises hopes for a favourable process of rebuilding the relations.