FOREIGN AGENTS AND PROTESTS

Political stability in Georgia is going through yet another major test. The country's major cities were hit by anti-authoritarian protests that forced the ruling Georgian Dream party to curtail the promotion of the foreign agents bill through the parliament. But it has eventually become yet another element of confrontation between the West and Russia in Georgia and throughout the post-Soviet space, especially amid the war in Ukraine.

Law withdrawn, instability persists

The draft law On Transparency of Foreign Influence passed by the Georgian parliament in the first reading obliged non-governmental organisations and media outlets with more than 20 percent of annual funding from abroad to register as "foreign agents" and submit an annual financial declaration. In case of violation, they were supposed to pay a fine of 25,000 GEL (about $9,500).

Main initiators of the draft law were MPs from the public movement People's Power—former members of the ruling party Georgian Dream, who motivated their resignation in August 2022 by their disagreement with the authorities' course towards European integration of Georgia. Experts say it is likely that the split in the ruling power was staged by influential Bidzina Ivanishvili, the richest man in Georgia, former prime minister and founder of Georgian Dream. With this move, he is believed to have simplified the process of managing the foreign policy moves of Georgia's ruling elite. For now one of the forces controlled by Ivanishvili, the Georgian Dream, is positioning itself as an advocate of the pro-Western course, while the other, the People's Power, is its opponent.

Many saw the Dream-supported bill submitted to the parliament by People's Power as an anti-Western and pro-Russian move. Indeed, the draft law in essence was a copy of its Russian analogue on foreign agents. As a result, mass protests by supporters of European integration in Tbilisi, as well as in some other major cities of the country, demanded the withdrawal of the Georgian version of the law passed in the first reading. Protesters argued that the approval of the law would be a reason for limiting the press and opposition organisations, as well as an obstacle to Georgia's accession to the European Union. However, the demands of protesters soon expanded to include the resignation of what they considered to be a pro-Russian government and the holding of early parliamentary elections.

Overall, the issues of foreign policy orientation play an instrumental role in the current Georgian confrontation. Oppositionists declare their determination to oppose the policies of the Georgian Dream, which, in their view, is dragging the country back under Russian control. In turn, the Dream expresses its readiness to continue preventing the Ukrainianisation of Georgia and to oppose the plans of hostile external and internal forces to drag the country into a war against Russia. According to the chairman of the Georgian Dream, Irakli Kobakhidze (former speaker of parliament, who headed the party after Ivanishvili officially stepped down as its leader) Georgia must avoid another Maidan scenario similar to the one that led to the conflict in Ukraine.  "What about Maidan and what did it bring to Ukraine? They lost Crimea and most of Luhansk and Donetsk. As a result, Ukraine is in the state of ongoing war with Russia today," Kobakhidze said.

Meanwhile, Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili also supported the demand to withdraw the law on foreign agents. Due to the events at home, she even interrupted her visit to the US and declared her intention to veto the adoption of the controversial bill. But her position could not be decisive because, firstly, the procedure allows the parliamentary majority to override the presidential veto. Secondly, Zurabishvili's real role in the domestic power balance is not entirely clear. While some see her genuine disagreement with increasingly visible pro-Russian manifestations in the Georgian Dream politics lately, others regard even this presidential rebelliousness as yet another trick by Ivanishvili, without whose approval and support Zurabishvili could not become president. It is possible that President Zurabishvili's criticism of the law in question is also part of the shadow ruler's game, trying to balance between the West and Russia in such a way.

It was not possible to avoid unpleasant cases during the protests. Protesters attempted to storm the parliament building, built barricades, threw stones and Molotov cocktails at security forces and administrative buildings. The police dispersed the crowd with batons, tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannons.

After two days of protests accompanied by clashes between protesters and security forces, the Georgian Dream issued an official statement saying that after consultations with the People's Power party it had decided to withdraw the bill on Transparency of Foreign Influence "for the sake of maintaining peace in the country and moving Georgia towards the EU integration". At the same time, more than 130 of 160 detained protesters were released.

Despite these moves, the protests have continued, albeit with less intensity. But even if they completely subside, it is clear that decisive political battles over power and Georgia's geopolitical future cannot be avoided.

Apparently, many experts believe that a change in Georgia's domestic political balance of power, including a possible change of power, is hindered by the absence of clear leaders in the opposition. The fact that supporters of imprisoned ex-president Mikhail Saakashvili remain at the forefront of opposition positions also plays into the hands of the Dream. Largely critical public attitude towards Saakashvili negatively affects the popularity of the opposition as a whole.

But by and large, the Saakashvili factor is also present in the current protest developments. The United National Movement, the party he founded, is the largest opposition force in Georgia. Its incumbent leader, Levan Khabeishvili, has not ruled out Saakashvili's release by force. Another opposition figure, former Defense Minister Vano Merabishvili has even openly stated that the release of the ex-president from prison is the number one issue for the United National Movement, and this goal will be achieved through rallies.

Meanwhile, the authorities, in particular the deputy speaker of the parliament, one of the leaders of the Georgian Dream, Gia Volsky, claims that Saakashvili's supporters who fought in Ukraine and are now back in Georgia are pushing the youth towards a coup. However, the this shows, albeit indirectly, that by and large the removal of the Dream so longed by the Georgian opposition is impossible without a significant involvement of an external factor.

External factor

The aggravation of political situation in Georgia is an indicator of the growing clash of interests between the West and Russia in the South Caucasus and, more generally, the entire post-Soviet space.

Georgia has been a regional drive for European integration for decades. However, with Bidzina Ivanishvili's Dream coming to power in 2012, the US and the EU regarded Georgia's efforts on a pro-Western path as half-hearted and not convincing enough. Western discontent peaked in 2022, when Georgia, unlike Ukraine and Moldova, was denied a candidate status for EU membership.

The West is not happy that the current Georgian government did not support direct anti-Russian sanctions. Tbilisi has clearly distanced itself from an explicitly pro-Ukrainian position, motivated by Georgia's national interests, primarily the economic ones. And now, when the country is going through large-scale anti-government rallies after the introduction of the law on foreign agents, it is hard not to see Western support for the Georgian protesters.

Remarkably, some representatives from the US and Europe have sharply condemned the draft law on foreign agents. The American ambassador to Tbilisi, Kelly Degnan, called this "a black day for Georgian democracy". The US State Department Spokesman Ned Price warned that the adoption of this law would jeopardise the partnership between Washington and Tbilisi.

The European External Action Service stated that the draft law does not conform to EU values and standards and contradicts Georgia's stated objective of EU membership, which the vast majority of the country supports.

Another landmark signal came from the Baltic states, which traditionally express particular support for Georgia's Euro-Atlantic orientation: the foreign ministers of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia issued a joint statement calling on Tbilisi to adhere to the principles of democracy.

The opposite attitude to the Georgian events is expressed in Russia. Diplomats, politicians, Duma deputies characterise the protests by pro-Western forces in Georgia as a play planned by the US and the EU to overthrow the Georgian Dream relatively neutral to Russia and open a second front against Russia. Margarita Simonyan even openly threatens Georgia with a strike and bombing if the pro-Western opposition triumphs in the country.

This only confirms the increasing intensity of the confrontation between Russia and the West in the South Caucasus and the entire post-Soviet space. In the course of this confrontation, it is important to take into account the development of political processes in Georgia.