XI'S SECRET MISSION

Recently, China has made a series of international efforts that signal important geopolitical changes. Perhaps we have yet to see them materialise, but they have already set important directions. First in the chain of these efforts was the state visit of the Chinese President Xi Jinping to Moscow. Then, Beijing achieved yet another success by contributing largely to the reconciliation between Tehran and Riyadh.

A landmark visit

Although long planned, President Xi's visit to Moscow was interesting also because it was his first overseas visit since re-election as president and took place during the Russian-Ukrainian. It ended with the signing a joint Sino-Russian statement on deepening comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation in the new era, as well as a joint statement on the development of key areas of Sino-Russian economic cooperation until 2030. Russia and China described the talks as landmark, symbolic, drawing a line under the former unipolar world and promoting a new world order. Moreover, the Russian media emphasised that stronger ties with China would strengthen the Russian economy and its ability to operate despite the Western sanctions.

Particularly eye-catching was the brief conversation, whether accidentally or deliberately made public, between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin on the porch of the Grand Kremlin Palace. The Russian and Chinese leaders paused to exchange parting words. "Change is coming that hasn't happened in hundred years... And we are driving it," Xi Jinping said, to which Vladimir Putin agreed. Shortly after, Xi said: "Take care, dear friend."

As expected, the state-level summit between Russia and China was closely observed in the West, where every step and the "meticulously orchestrated pomp and ceremony" were noted. Interestingly, opinions were divided. Western analysts saw "a grand demonstration of solidarity" between the two leaders on the one hand and that the "warm embrace of the heads of Russia and China should be a cause for concern in Washington" on the other. For instance, according to John Kirby, the White House National Security Council's coordinator for strategic communications, the rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing can be explained by the two countries' intention to challenge the US and get rid of the "rules-based world order". Kirby also noted that the two leaders see each other as "potential allies in the fight against Washington".

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said the Chinese leader's visit to Moscow days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin effectively provided a "diplomatic cover for Russia to continue committing" war crimes. "President Xi Jinping's visit suggests that China does not feel obliged to hold President Vladimir Putin accountable for the atrocities committed in Ukraine," Blinken said. Also widely circulated were the words of former US President Donald Trump, who said Russian leader Vladimir Putin's conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping about change was the worst moment in history for the US.

On the other hand, the White House described the apparent show of closeness between Moscow and Beijing as nothing more than a "marriage of convenience". Many US analysts agreed that China was simply taking advantage of Russia's current disadvantaged position. "Russia is becoming a Chinese resource colony," wrote the Financial Times. German Spiegel agreed, pointing to the unequal partnership between Russia and China, and also that Xi Jinping was becoming the only more or less "important" ally of Vladimir Putin. In return, China expects much from Russia. For example, it is likely to be very interested in Russian military experience, direct and indirect, or in cooperation in military technology. Or in Moscow providing stability in Central Asia, where it still retains a considerable influence. Central Asia is an important strategic region for China. Firstly, the Central Asian countries have attracted a fair amount of investment and provide vital resources and important transit routes for China. Beijing is well aware that in the event of a serious conflict with the West, the US and its allies in the region can easily block the maritime southern transit routes.

In addition, thanks to Central Asia, China can retain its direct influence over an extremely sensitive location, the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Finally, there is the issue of Taiwan. "Russia reaffirms its commitment to the principle of One China, recognises Taiwan as an integral part of China and opposes Taiwan's independence in any form" – this view of the Kremlin is very important to Beijing. Especially amid the growing tension between China and the US in the South China Sea.

Top nuances

Obviously, the most valuable area of Russian-Chinese relations is energy supplies. In the first two months of 2023, Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as China's main oil supplier, although Beijing remains the largest buyer of oil from the Persian Gulf. The Russian media admitted that Putin's main goal was to persuade Xi Jinping to agree to the Power of Siberia-2 project, which would deliver up to 50 billion cubic metres of the Russian gas to China via Mongolia every year. However, it is noteworthy that no specific and long-awaited statements about the deal were made in Moscow. According to a number of experts, this is because China, as noted in the West, is now trying to extort the most favourable price from the Kremlin. It is likely that Xi wants to sign a new contract in Beijing, not in Moscow, as it will look like it was not Xi Jinping who went to Moscow for gas, but Putin who brought gas to China.

In other words, the Russian-Chinese friendship is not that unambiguous as the Russian media is trying to portray it. Undoubtedly, Xi's visit to Moscow is of great importance to Russia in a geopolitical sense. But again, it all depends on facts that one pays attention to. After all, despite the statements made by the Chinese and Russian leaders on the Kremlin porch, there are significant economical differences between the two nations, at least for the time being. Thus, while Russian-Chinese trade turnover is now estimated at $190 billion, Beijing's trade turnover with the US and Europe is $759.427 billion and more than $800 billion, respectively.

For the West, the most important aspect of President Xi's visit to Moscow was apparently the war in Ukraine. China has so far refrained from using the Western terminology in this regard and from adopting all UN resolutions condemning Russia. It continues to actively trade with Russia, while the Chinese media often pays lip service to Moscow's enormous support. At the same time, Beijing is in no hurry to take on a mediation mission, even despite the recently proposed "Chinese position on a political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis". In fact, we did not hear anything new on the Ukrainian issue in Moscow either, although it was sort of implied that President Xi was travelling to Russia as a peacemaker willing to contribute constructively to the settlement. Even the Western experts said that China might push on Russia to end the conflict in Ukraine because it did not do any good for it. But it is most likely that Beijing is biding its time and trying with Eastern wisdom to find itself in a better position. Apparently, the Celestial Empire really does want peace in Ukraine, as it is equally disadvantageous for Beijing to either stay aside the conflict or to specifically choose sides. At the same time, the West is still concerned that Beijing may more openly support Russia and even start supplying it with weapons.

Geopolitical influence through mediation

But the West is unlikely to acknowledge Beijing's mediation efforts enthusiastically, as it will strengthen the latter's international role. Previously, China was thought to be seeking to spread its influence mainly through the economy—through slow but extremely heavy investments in different countries and regions—mostly based on its One Belt, One Road initiative to gain access to natural resources in the Middle East and beyond. Or maybe China decided to revise its strategy, realising that real influence and power, especially in the current state of international relations, are unattainable without serious diplomatic and military steps?

In fact, Western observers have failed to provide a clear explanation as to why Beijing put so much effort into reconciling Iran and Saudi Arabia who agreed to resume diplomatic relations suspended back in 2016. As we know, Saudi Arabia and Iran are regional rivals and support opposing forces in the Middle East, including Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen (all important countries for the Americans). Rapprochement of Tehran and Riyadh certainly increases China's influence in the Middle East, especially since the Joe Biden administration is not getting along particularly well with Riyadh. Moscow is also reportedly working on a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Syria, and China may be behind the scenes here as well. It is therefore interesting to know whether the US risks losing its undisputed leadership position in international diplomacy. It will be even more interesting to see how the American mediation efforts between Saudi Arabia and Israel play out. Some media reports claim that Riyadh has put forward its conditions—clearer security guarantees for the kingdom by Washington, the right to purchase more advanced weapons and support their development, and the development of a civilian nuclear programme. How far would Washington go in this case?

Given the above, it is not surprising that most US media outlets described Xi Jinping's visit to Russia in terms of China continuing to build up its geopolitical influence rather than concerns about the alliance between Beijing and Moscow. Indeed, China is apparently not happy with the international order set and ruled by the Western countries. In fact, there are many aspects that worries the US and its allies. For example, China hosts about 36% of the world's known reserves of rare-earth elements and controls more than half of the world's mining capacity in this area. Also, China is increasing its technological potential, striving to integrate it with the military sector. Beijing has been reforming its military for several years, and has significantly improved its influence in the space, cyber and electronic warfare. Is it possible that China is intensively and intelligently preparing for the war of the future, while Russia and the West are at war here and now?

How will the US and its allies respond to China's growing ambitions? There is no clear strategy so far. We can only note a few perspective vectors of developments. In parallel with Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (Tokyo is this year's G7 chair and therefore represents the unity of the West) travelled first to Poland and then to Kiev. Almost at the same time, Czech President Petr Pavel said during his visit to Germany that both Prague and Berlin were revising the foreign policy on China. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez as well as French President Emmanuel Macron are planning to visit China as well. According to an expert opinion voiced in one of the respected American publications, with the global energy markets changing and the implications of global climate change, the US should not be so insistent on its influence in the Middle East. The US has plenty of oil and gas, and if China is the main importer of oil from the Persian Gulf, it is better to secure the stability in the region as well. Maybe Washington should look more closely at Europe and East Asia instead. That is one way of looking at the situation. Other analysts emphasize the Iranian problem, noting the need for a regional bloc to contain Tehran and the importance of normalising relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia—that is, formally broadening the Abraham Accord. Nor should we forget the huge investments made by the US in various areas in the Middle East.

Either way, it seems we can expect a serious and intensive rivalry between China and the US/collective West soon. China is increasingly transforming into a new force against the Western powers and order. China's influence in strategic regions of the world, including Europe, the Middle East and Africa, is becoming quite demonstrative and too troublesome for the US. It is a challenge that the Americans cannot fail.