SMOKE, FIRE AND BARRICADES

France is gripped by mass protests against the social policies of President Emmanuel Macron and the government of Elizabeth Borne. Riots, clashes between protesters and police, the detention of hundreds of demonstrators, strikes affecting major sectors of the national economy, education system are the main consequences of the current French crisis. The question, however, is when and how will it all end.

When people take to the streets

The situation in France has become increasingly tense since January, when the authorities unveiled a draft pension reform. Its main premise is to increase the retirement age by three months each year, which implies that it will rise from the current 62 to 64 years by 2030. Another planned measure is an accelerated increase from 42 to 43 years of work experience in order to receive a full pension. The government assures that the changes are necessary to prevent a sizeable deficit that threatens the pension system as the population ages. This is a projected €13.5b hole in the pension system in 2030.

However, the measures proposed by the authorities caused the indignation among the majority of population. This resulted in protests that have taken on an extremely wide scale in recent weeks. Protest activists, especially the leaders of the General Confederation of Labour (the largest trade union association in France), believe that instead of raising the retirement age authorities should raise the minimum wage to €2,000 and return to the previous retirement age (60). And the threat of an impressive deficit, they argue, should be eliminated by funding pensions through taxation of the very rich and increased employer contributions.

The direct cause of the new, more massive phase of the protest movement was the government's decision to approve the pension reform without parliamentary approval. That is, the president and the prime minister chose to take advantage of Article 49.3 of the French constitution, which allows laws to be passed without the consent of the National Assembly. They were prompted to do so because the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, failed to vote in line with the plans of the authorities due to the efforts of opposition factions, despite the approval of the pension reform bill by the Senate.

The opposition tried to respond to the government's decision to approve the law without the consent of the National Assembly by initiating a no-confidence vote against the government. However, both attempts proposed by the far-right Rassemblement National party led by Marine Le Pen and the Liot faction (a group of independent MPs and representatives of the overseas territories) did not achieve the required majority. Liot was only nine votes short of the required majority of 287 votes (278 parliamentarians out of the required majority of 287 voted in favour).

With the failure of the no-confidence vote the pension reform become effective, plunging France into the abyss of mass demonstrations, strikes and clashes between protesters and the law enforcement agencies. Trade union leaders say some 3.5 million people have taken to the streets against the government's policies.

The protests in a number of cities, including Paris, Strasbourg, Lyon, Bordeaux and others, were accompanied by riots, violence, vandalism and damage to infrastructure and administrative buildings. As a result, the streets turned into an arena of violent clashes: the police resorted to various means of restraint to contain the protesters.

The protest movement has gripped almost all the spheres of life in France. During the nationwide strikes (the tenth was organised on March 28), transport, education, social and urban services were virtually paralysed. In Paris, the strike of teachers disrupted the normal teaching process, while a strike by waste collectors resulted in almost 10,000 tonnes of uncollected waste in Paris. Apparently, this is not the end of the line. The unions are promising further national and local actions. But what are the political implications?

The Unconquered, the far left and the unpopular Macron

One consequence, regardless of whether or not the protest movement succeeds in repealing the unpopular pension reform law, can be a public debate on whether to retain constitutional Article 49.3—the one which gives the government the right to bypass the parliamentary vote.

In the past, the founder of the Fifth Republic, General Charles de Gaulle, pushed for the introduction of this article in the constitution due to the urgent need to overcome the political instability in which governments were constantly changing under the previous republican regime and internal parliamentary squabbles hindered the effective functioning of the executive power. But now it is possible that political and social forces start the process of revising the article that enabled the incumbent president to push his infamous pension reform.

The second point, which is much more tangible here and now, concerns President Macron himself. The incidents in France will apparently result in relatively protracted political instability and weaken Macron's position as the head of state. In fact, his position is already weakening. Protesters are calling for Macron's resignation because they believe his presidency is a threat to French democracy. Not only has he initiated a reform that most of the French population does not accept, but he also blatantly ignores the public opinion. Macron stated that he would not back down and that even the violence would not force him to cancel the initiated reform. In total contradiction to his declared commitment to democracy, Macron also rejects the protesters' demand for a referendum on the pension reform.

It seems that Macron, who is trying to look like a plain fellow, has ceased to be a "regular guy" even for many of those who twice supported his candidacy in the presidential election. The popular sympathy for Macron has dropped significantly. According to an IFOP poll carried out at the request of Le Journal du Dimanche, more than 70% of the French expressed dissatisfaction with Macron's performance as president amid the developments surrounding the pension reform.

Another episode revealed how distant Macron is from his own people. In one of his recent TV appearances, in addition to his statements that cause indignation among the many French, he tried to hide from the camera the expensive watch on his wrist (according to the French media, it cost €80,000).

The third factor closely related with the aforementioned events is the strengthening of the left-wing political camp in France. It is not just the considerable activism of the representatives of radical organisations during the protests. As French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin stated, the majority of the more than hundred rioters arrested in Paris were members of ultra-left groups.

Experts believe that the weakening position of President Macron and the political centre he represents could be exploited by the most popular leftist force in the country, the France Unconquered party led by former presidential candidate Jean-Luc Melanchon. But is Melanchon capable of presenting the society a real alternative to the neoliberal political doctrine advocated by Macron? So far the leader of the Unconquered has limited himself to scathing criticism of Macron's rule, placing particular emphasis on the fact that "there is an authoritarian bias in France, and many people say that this is now starting to go too far".

Predicting the further development of the protest movement itself, especially given the intransigence shown by both the authorities implementing unpopular decisions and their opponents, is not easy. Protests may or may not intensify. Much will depend on whether President Macron succeeds in winning over to his side those French people who no longer accept unpopular reforms and vandalism in the streets. In a more, so to speak, global sense, however, the current French protests have confirmed the significant increase in social contradictions that characterise the political and economic reality of contemporary Western society as a whole.