NEW FAMILY MEMBER

Finland joined NATO. This was an extremely important event in the context of the alliance's enlargement amid its escalating conflict with Russia. But it is also remarkable given the role played by Türkiye in NATO. It was Ankara's position that determined both Finland's entry into the Western political and military organisation and the barrier to a similar decision for Sweden. At least for the time being.

The best gift

The war between Russia and Ukraine put an end to the decades-long policy of neutrality pursued by Finland and Sweden at the end of the Second World War. When it began on February 24, 2022, both Scandinavian countries also began to review their long-standing practice of non-participation in military blocs. Three months later, Finland and Sweden simultaneously applied for the NATO membership.

On July 5, 2022, a majority of NATO member states signed the protocols for Finland and Sweden to join the alliance. They assumed that NATO's enlargement to include Sweden, which is the largest Nordic state, and Finland, which shares a border with Russia of over a thousand kilometres, would strengthen the alliance's position in the European space in general and in the Baltic region in particular.

However, Türkiye has blocked these countries from joining NATO. The reason for this is Sweden's and Finland's support for Kurdish terrorist organisations and those accused of a coup attempt in Türkiye back in 2016. Ankara has demanded that Stockholm and Helsinki abandon this policy, making it a condition for these countries' admission to the alliance. The Madrid Memorandum was signed between Türkiye, Finland and Sweden on June 28, 2022 with a list of specific steps Ankara was demanding in order to resolve the issue.

Helsinki's fulfilment of its obligations under the trilateral memorandum was confirmed when the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the start of the ratification process of Finland's NATO membership on March 17, 2023. And on March 30, the Finnish membership protocol was approved by the Turkish Grand National Assembly. Finland thus received all the necessary legal grounds for full membership of the Alliance.

On April 4, the 74th anniversary of NATO's establishment, Finland officially became the 31st full member of the Alliance. This was preceded by Türkiye handing over a document confirming the ratification of Finland's membership to the US as the custodian of the Washington Treaty establishing the alliance. This was done at NATO's headquarters in Brussels on the margins of the NATO Foreign Ministers' meeting. Finland also handed over a similar document received from Türkiye to the US. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that Finland had "the fastest accession process in modern history." He regarded the completion of the process as "the best gift" on the alliance's 74th birthday.

Meanwhile, the original expectation that Finland and Sweden would join NATO at the same time did not materialise. Türkiye maintains its demands for the latter, which, if not fulfilled, could further hamper Sweden's accession to the alliance.

Will Sweden overcome the challenges?

Ankara demonstrates that, despite obvious pressure from the US and leading European states, there will be no easing of Turkish demands on Sweden's path to NATO membership. It is clear that Stockholm will have to work much harder to fulfil its obligations under the Madrid Memorandum than Finland, where, unlike in Sweden, the Kurdish factor does not play any significant role in political life.

Türkiye says Stockholm has failed to meet its demand for the extradition of members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), supporters of preacher Fethullah Gulen, whom Ankara holds responsible for the coup attempt, as well as for limiting support for Kurdish groups in Syria. Several rounds of talks to resolve these issues have yielded no results, even though Stockholm has made some efforts to placate Ankara. For instance, Sweden passed a new anti-terrorism law.  In addition, Sweden, as the president of the EU Council and the European Commission, organised an International Donors' Conference to support earthquake victims in Türkiye and Syria.

These moves have not diminished the relevance of Turkish demands. Moreover, Ankara's negative attitude towards Stockholm's policy has been exacerbated by apparent provocations in Sweden. Not only PKK members continue to receive permits for anti-Turkish rallies in Sweden; Swedish courts also block the extradition of Kurdish terrorists to Türkiye. Multiple incidents with burning the Qur'an in Sweden are also causing great resentment in the Turkish society. Turkish President Erdogan has said that these actions insult not only Muslims, but also "all people in general, human rights and freedoms".

In fact, negotiations on Sweden's accession to NATO have been frozen since another Qur'an-burning action was carried out in front of the Turkish embassy in Stockholm in February 2023, and a doll depicting Erdogan was hung head-down in front of the Swedish capital's city hall. These actions are carried out with the permission of Swedish authorities. Remarkably, on April 4, the day Finland joined NATO, a Swedish administrative court lifted the police ban on Qur'an-burning demonstrations.

On the same day, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu met with his Swedish counterpart Tobias Billstroem and confirmed that for Sweden to join NATO a "result-oriented cooperation in countering terrorism is imperative". In other words, Ankara is standing its ground. The NATO leadership, meanwhile, expresses hope that its position will change after the forthcoming elections of the Turkish president on May 14, and Sweden will have a chance to become part of the alliance before the July 11 summit in Vilnius.

However, Sweden's path to NATO membership is also blocked by Hungary. Budapest is unhappy with Stockholm's criticism of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The Hungarian barrier, although seemingly much less formidable than the Turkish one, also involves a shift in the Swedish position. A shift that would allow Sweden to join the alliance, whose expansion at the expense of the previously neutral Scandinavian countries is one of the landmark manifestations of modern global politics.

Russia got more NATO

Finnish President Saule Niinisto said on the day of the country's accession to NATO that its membership in the alliance "is not directed against anyone," "Finland is a stable and predictable Nordic country that seeks to resolve disputes peacefully. However, it is clear that Finland's accession to NATO and Sweden's expected acceptance into the alliance despite all the deterrents should be analysed in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

NATO considers Finland's membership very important primarily because the country shares a border with the Russian Federation that is approximately 1,300 km long. In other words, the alliance's borders with Russia have almost doubled. For Russia, this is also a significant factor: much of the country's northwest is now bordered by NATO.

Given that Finland is considered one of the strongest Nordic countries in terms of its defence potential, it also has considerable military and technical value to the alliance. NATO undoubtedly expects to benefit from Finland's development of the world's most advanced icebreaking technology. It could therefore be directly involved in NATO maritime operations in the Arctic region, where the West's rival is Russia.

The Kremlin's attitude towards Finland's accession to NATO was remarkable. When the applications from Finland and Sweden to join the organisation were discussed at the NATO summit in Madrid in June 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin said: "We have neither territorial questions nor disputes, we have nothing to worry about in terms of Finland's or Sweden's membership in NATO. If they want it, they are welcome." However, he warned that while there had been no threats to these countries before, if NATO troops and infrastructure were deployed on their territory, Russia would be forced to "respond adequately and introduce the same threats".

Commenting on the situation after Finland's accession to the alliance, however, Moscow acknowledged its concerns. Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that NATO enlargement was "another encroachment" on Russian interests and that Russia was therefore ready to take countermeasures. The Russian Foreign Ministry announced "both military, technical and other measures" in response to the possible deployment of the NATO strike weapons systems and military infrastructure on Finnish territory.

Either way, it is clear that NATO's enlargement with Finland and possibly Sweden is part of an increasingly bitter confrontation between the West and Russia. On the landmark day of April 4, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg recalled that in announcing the deployment of Russian troops in Ukraine, Putin "wanted to see less NATO on his borders" and "wanted no other country in Europe to become a member of NATO". However, Stoltenberg said, Putin "is getting the exact opposite".

We have yet to see the effects of this "opposite" on the global security and, by and large, the fate of the world.