OVERLAPPING INTERESTS

In recent weeks, Saudi Arabia has further developed its new foreign policy strategy to build an independent balance of interests in the region. A brief analysis of political dynamics suggests that this is a long-term trend not driven by the current situation. And there are distinctly separate trends.

Ankara and Riyadh are getting closer

On April 10, after many years, Riyadh hosted the first round of political consultations between the foreign ministries of Saudi Arabia and Türkiye.

Official statements indicate that the parties discussed the current international situation, as well as the main regional and international challenges and crises. During the meeting they also discussed ways to intensify joint cooperation in various areas.

Remarkably, the consultations took place during a heated election campaign in Türkiye. This may indicate, albeit indirectly, Riyadh's intention to support the incumbent Turkish head of state through intensified dialogue. Earlier in March, the Saudi government decided to provide financial support to the Turkish government by depositing $5b with the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye.

The rapid improvement of bilateral relations between the two countries began a year ago, in April 2022, when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Riyadh. In March-April 2023, contacts between the respective authorities of both countries intensified as well.

Soon after receiving a substantial funding from the Saudis, a bilateral business forum attended by 450 companies was held in March.

Meanwhile, Türkiye's exports to Saudi Arabia rose to a record level in January-February 2023 – $367.3m, which is 30 times higher than last year. The goal is to bring mutual trade to $10b in the coming years.

The rapprochement comes amid the normalisation of Syrian-Saudi dialogue as well as the revival of contacts between Damascus, Moscow, Ankara and Tehran to resolve the Syrian crisis.

Strategic autonomy in action

Riyadh's current goal may be to increase strategic autonomy from the United States, whose priorities in the region have long defined the vector of Saudi foreign policy. Now that Prince Mohammed bin Salman continues to push for an autonomous foreign policy as part of his Vision 2030 strategy, Riyadh needs more than ever reliable communications with its neighbours.

Türkiye and Iran are regional centres of power. In building relations with them, Riyadh is trying to create a balance of power in the region without reliance on the US, thanks to its own resources and capabilities.

The experience of recent years has demonstrated Riyadh's failure to get the desired results from the reliance on the power factor and one-sided promotion of interests.

Saudi Arabia's intervention in Yemen may have helped prevent the Houthis from expanding their influence beyond Sana'a and the northern part of the country. But the Saudi-led coalition, which itself is now in a fractured state, has failed to meet the basic challenge of defeating the Houthis.

In addition, the Houthis, with their drones and short-range missiles, now pose a serious security threat to Riyadh itself.

Thus, Saudi Arabia has to choose among the two available options - either to double its previously unsuccessful efforts to contain Iran in the region, or to engage with Iran to establish a new regional balance of power. When China, which has good ties with both Tehran and Riyadh, offered to mediate between these countries, the Saudis saw this as an opportunity and seized it.

The same is true for Saudi Arabia's Syrian policy. Breaking with Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria in the hope that the protest movement in the country would lead to the change of government was a complete failure. Backed by Russia and Iran, Assad won the civil war and stayed in power, while groups backed by Saudi Arabia have failed completely.

Now, in order to resuscitate its influence in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean as a whole, Riyadh is trying to restore dialogue with Damascus and to lead the process of rebuilding Syria's ties with the Arab world.

Saudi Arabia, which has long resisted normalising relations with Assad's government, stated that a new approach to Damascus was necessary after rapprochement with Iran, Syria's key regional ally.

Mediating the Syrian-Arab dialogue

On April 14, delegates from nine Arab countries met in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to discuss Syria's possible return to the League of Arab States (LAS) as part of Saudi Arabia's new foreign policy. These were ministers and high-ranking officials from six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE—as well as Egypt, Iraq and Jordan, which accepted Saudi Arabia's invitation and discussed Syria's recovery in this format.

Many Middle Eastern countries still shun Bashar al-Assad because of his rejection by the West, as they do not want complications with their Western partners and allies. The Arab states are aware that any attempt to bring Syria back into the 22-member LAS is likely to draw protests from the West.

Qatar's prime minister has sharply condemned speculations on a possible return of Syria to the LAS. "Nothing has been proposed, it is all just speculation," Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdurrahman bin Jassim Al Thani said in his television interview.

Therefore, Syria's return to the Arab League is unlikely to happen easily. Meanwhile, we can assume that the intention of many ruling Arab elites to reintegrate Syria into the Arab world to pursue national interests will prevail. Syria is in dire need of funds to recover from a devastating civil war. And Saudi Arabia, the wealthiest state in the Arab world, has an opportunity to regain influence in Syria through massive reconstruction and direct investment. And by doing so, it can put its rivals - most notably Iran - at a disadvantage.

Washington's anxieties and hopes

Washington now shows the signs of concern about the reshaping regional relations without its involvement amid the ongoing dialogue between Riyadh and Tehran, as well as the restoration of ties between Saudi Arabia and Syria.

On April 14, White House National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk and US State Department Senior Energy Security Advisor Amos Hoeksteen arrived in Saudi Arabia. The purpose of the visit was to discuss normalisation of relations between Riyadh and Tehran, as well as the issues related to oil production and security with the kingdom's leadership.

The dialogue between Washington and Riyadh has recently complicated not only due to Washington's criticism of Saudi's actions against human rights, but also due to dissatisfaction with its oil pricing policies. When the OPEC+ countries agreed to cut oil production in autumn 2022, US authorities stated that the decision indicated Saudi Arabia's aligning its energy policy with Russia.

According to estimates, the US officials' trip to the kingdom could signal attempts to improve bilateral relations. US officials have reportedly discussed with the Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud the issues related to enhancing cooperation between the countries.

Earlier, there was also a telephone conversation between the US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud. It is noted that the two sides stressed the need to contain threats from Iran and discussed the situation in Yemen.

Despite the Biden's administration repeated statements about reviewing relations with Saudi Arabia to drastically improve them, Politico reports that the process has not even begun.

Either way, Saudi Arabia, the largest economy in the Middle East and one of the most influential countries in the world, a member of the G20, is making it clear that it no longer needs tutelage to pursue its own interests.

Riyadh prefers to find out, albeit by trials and errors, its own way to a brighter future, trying to build on regional realities and actors. It has complex relations with many of them, while conflicting with others. But it is clear that countries, unlike people, cannot choose their neighbours, thereby having to build common rules of the game with them.