UNPRECEDENTED ELECTIONS

The first stage of general elections in Türkiye is over. All government and opposition forces were mobilised to take part in these crucial elections for the country. Indeed, the 14 May vote was unprecedented as it included both the presidential and parliamentary elections.

Since none of the presidential candidates were able to get the necessary number of votes in the first round, it is clear that the process was both intense and truly democratic. According to the preliminary data, the candidate of the People's Alliance, the incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan got 49.35%, the candidate of the Nation Alliance, leader of the main opposition party CHP (Republican People's Party) Kemal Kilicdaroglu got 45%, the candidate of the Ata (Ataturk Alliance) Sinan Ogan got 5.22% and the chairman of the Fatherland Party, Muharrem Ince (withdrew his candidacy three days before the election), got 0.43% of total votes.

The same trend prevailed in parliamentary elections, where the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) received less number of seats, but still retained a majority in parliament. According to preliminary results, the ruling People's Alliance won 49.31%, Nation Alliance 35.19%, Alliance of Labour and Freedom 10.51%, Ata Alliance 2.46% and the Union of Socialist Forces 0.29% of votes.

From Ataturk to Erdogan

Historically, Türkiye has been an example of a state that looked confidently into the future and firmly established itself in the region thanks to a series of popular accomplishments. However, unlike a century ago, when the great Ataturk created the young Republic of Türkiye, which was a weak and war-torn country despite glorious victories on the battlefield, today's Türkiye is one of the strongest states both in the Middle East and globally. And much of this success has been achieved in recent decades.

It is safe to assume that the goals set by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk a century ago have been mostly realised by his followers. Ironically, however, the leader of the largest Kemalist party in Türkiye, a party that positions itself as an exponent of the ideas of the founder of the Turkish Republic, is not the incumbent head of state, but his permanent rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu. This too is an example of Turkish democracy.

While the government's rating is formed by its achievements, the opposition's rating is shaped mainly by the sympathies of those protesters who, for various reasons, are not happy with the course pursued by the current government. Thus, the largest number of protesters are not satisfied with local economic policy. Although it is fair to say that most of Türkiye's current economic problems are caused by external factors, the instability of international economic and financial markets.

But apparently the authorities are not embarrassed by this. According to statistical data, Türkiye's economy grew rapidly in 2022 as a result of strong consumer spending, with the GDP growing by 5.6% adjusted for inflation. This is even higher than that of the developed G7 countries, which had a growth rate of just 2.3%.

This can be explained by the Turkish leadership's focus on boosting production and manufacturing instead of curbing inflation through heavy external borrowing. Consumer spending, which accounts for almost 60% of the Turkish output, rose by 19.7% in 2022. In times of high inflation, consumers often prefer to buy goods rather than wait for them to become more expensive.

The government has increased the minimum wage, salaries in public sector and pensions to offset inflation.

At the same time, the catastrophic earthquake in the south-east of the country has significantly complicated the socio-economic situation in the country, contributing to opposition's chances to win more seats in the parliament.

Electoral passions

Although the opposition intensified efforts to identify a single candidate right after the earthquake, it by and large failed. Muharrem Ince, a politician rapidly gaining popularity in the opposition, challenged his former chief by running separately, which undoubtedly drew some votes from Kilicdaroglu, even though he subsequently withdrew his candidacy.

Another opposition candidate, Sinan Ogan, had the least chance of being elected, but he also drew some votes from the protest electorate. The opposition relied most heavily on support in large cities, where it traditionally has more voters. In the last municipal elections, it was the opposition that won the mayoral seats in the country's three largest cities.

Notably, speaking in Istanbul on May 10, Turkish President stated that a new constitution could be drafted in Türkiye. He noted that the government intends to raise the issue again: "We all can see how our judiciary system fights against terrorist organisations. We want to develop a strong constitution for Türkiye based on the national will. A civil and independent constitution is one of the most important goals of Türkiye's Century. We hope that the judiciary staff will contribute to this cause."

To some extent, Erdogan's statement can be considered his keynote message in case he and the ruling party win both the presidential and parliamentary elections.

The current fourth constitution of the country was adopted in 1982, during the rule of General Kenan Evren. With a new constitution for a new century, the Turkish political leadership wants to get rid of the legacy of the past completely.

Six months ago, the Turkish opposition represented by the same parties that had earlier unanimously nominated Kemal Kilicdaroglu for president, came up with an idea of introducing new amendments to the Turkish constitution, which are supposed to shift the country from a presidential form of government to a strengthened parliamentary system. At the same time, the authors of amendments consider them as a special form of state governance.

It is supposed to be a predominantly collegiate government to be established by Kemal Kilicdaroglu once he is elected president.

Consolidation of forces and preliminary results

Another interesting event took place during an election rally, when President Erdogan brought Fatih Erbakan, son of his late mentor Necmettin Erbakan, leader of the 2018 New Welfare Party (YRP), to the stage. Erbakan enjoys the support of the nationalist or extreme nationalist part of Turkish society, whose votes are very important in the polarised country.

In an attempt to consolidate forces further, Turkish authorities organised another rally in Mardin, which involved the representatives of the Kurdish party Hüda Par. Remarkably, the party also expresses the interests of Turkish Kurds, but unlike the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), it does not question the legitimacy of actions of the Turkish leadership towards the Kurds.

Thus, just before the election, the opposing sides consolidated political forces around them as much as possible, demonstrating the nature of the pre-election heat in the country.

Yet, regardless of the outcome of elections, Türkiye will remain the leading power in the region, also thanks to its incredible achievements.

As the date of general elections approaches, there have been an increasing number of events that made the headlines in the context of both domestic and regional politics. They are related to the recent achievements of the Republic of Türkiye, undoubtedly associated with the incumbent President Erdogan and his policies.

Elections amid achievements

These are the ongoing processes that will determine Türkiye's development in the future. In April, Türkiye took a confident step towards its gas independence. On April 20, the Turkish state-owned company TPAO kicked off the production of natural gas in the large, deep-sea Sakarya field in the Black Sea.

Meanwhile, gas deliveries from three wells have already started, with another seven planned to come on stream in September. The daily production from 10 wells is expected to be 10 million cubic metres (mcm). This is estimated to be about 7% of last year's consumption in Türkiye. The field is expected to produce 40mcm of gas daily when it reaches full capacity. Part of the gas is also planned to be exported. Thus, for the first time in its history, Türkiye may become an exporter of hydrocarbons.

Back in January, President Erdogan inaugurated a new Istanbul metro line that will connect the metropolis with the recently opened international airport in the European part of the city. The subway line has already gone down in history as the fastest in Europe.

At the end of March, Türkiye launched the sale of its first national electric car, TOGG. The model will be available in two versions - a sedan and an SUV.

In late March, President Erdogan posted a photo of the new Kizilelma fighter drone on his Twitter page. It can reach speeds of up to 800kph. The flight time is 5 hours, with the maximum altitude of 12km. Instead of text, the Turkish leader attached the country's flag to the photo.

And on April 10, Türkiye commissioned the country's largest warship and the world's first aircraft carrier for combat drones, TCG Anadolu. The aircraft carrier is the home of Kızılelma.

But this is not the latest achievement of the Turkish defence industry. On April 23, the Sovereignty Day declared by Ataturk, it was announced that the Turkish army would receive the first locally produced Altai tanks.

Energy breakthrough and a step into the future

On April 27, half a month before the election date, a ceremony was held to deliver nuclear fuel for the first unit of the Akkuyu NPP. For Türkiye, the project will strengthen its energy security and reduce gas consumption in the domestic market. For Russia, it will redirect the released volumes of its export gas going to Türkiye, to the third-country markets, including through the creation of a recently announced Turkish gas hub.

The discovery of an oil field in the Cudi and Kabar districts with a daily production potential of 100,000 barrels, as well as the launch of the 1,350MW Karapinar solar power plant in the Turkish province of Konya on May 2, are among the major achievements in the energy sector. In total, investments in the Karapinar solar power plant exceed $1b, while Kalyon Energy has announced its intention to invest over $10b in the country's renewable energy sector over the next five years.

The catastrophic earthquake in the southeast of the country created a contrast to this marathon of success. Although Türkiye's political leadership also turned the event to its advantage by promising to completely eliminate the consequences of the earthquake in a year and a half, rebuilding and constructing houses and apartments for the victims.

However, the current economic difficulties caused by both external and internal factors, high inflation leading to a decline in living standards, often play a significant role in determining voter preferences.

Turkish elections therefore took place under extremely difficult conditions. They broke stereotypes about an "authoritarian system", a retreat from democratic traditions, etc.  and showed that the future of the country is still in the hands of the Turkish people. They are the masters of their own destiny.