FLOOD AND EVACUATION

Two events in Ukraine made international headlines over the past few days: the most obvious signs of an expected counter-offensive by the Ukrainian army and the explosion of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, which flooded thousands of hectares of arable lands and forced hundreds of families to leave their homes.

Ukrainian army re-activates

On June 5, the world news agencies reported that the Ukrainian army began a breakthrough operation through several areas of the front line at once. Although the Ukrainian authorities did not officially confirm the start of the long-announced operation, many media outlets rushed to call the event a counter-offensive.

They claimed that Ukrainian units broke through heavily mined areas and advanced 5-10 km in some parts of the front in the first 24 hours. Experts believe that Ukrainian troops will be able to continue the offensive against Mariupol, Melitopol and other Russian-held territories by cutting the land corridor.

On the same day, President Vladimir Zelensky praised the troops after they advanced in several contact points. There were speculations that intensive fighting could signal the start of Kiev's long-awaited counter-offensive. Commander of the Ukrainian land forces, Aleksandr Syrsky, said that his troops continued to advance near Bakhmut/Artyomovsk.

Meanwhile, Russians denied the statement, claiming that they could repel the attempted Ukrainian counter-offensive.

According to the Russian Defence Ministry, Russian troops prevented several large-scale offensives in the southern part of Donetsk in recent days, causing Ukrainian troops to suffer heavy losses.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's deputy defence minister, Anna Malyar, said Kiev was "starting the offensive" in some parts of the front, but rejected the view that this was part of a major operation.

President Zelensky added to the intrigue after making a statement at a press conference during his meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau: "I can only say, without going into details, that there are counteroffensive and defensive operations taking place in Ukraine. Everyone is positive right now."

Based on information from the battlefield, experts and analysts conclude that the Ukrainian counter-offensive has nevertheless begun and is proceeding at a slow pace because the troops have to clear off large minefields and fortified defence lines.

A video published on Ukrainian channels a day before reports of a counterattack shows a group of Ukrainian soldiers in full combat gear putting their finger to their lips. "Plans like silence. There will be no announcement of a launch," reads the screen, after which combat aircraft appear in the sky.

A number of experts believe that this is a large-scale probe of the situation before a decisive strike. Intensive hostilities in various places along the front line back up this assumption, too. We will see whether it is true or false soon.

The tragedy in Kakhovka

On June 6, the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric dam was exploded. Huge volumes of water flooded the coastal settlements and the Russian army's fortifications on the left bank of the Dnieper.

Kiev blames Russia for the explosion, claiming that it did so to slow down the possible Ukrainian counteroffensive on the southeastern flank. Russians say that Ukrainians exploded the dam to flood Russian positions on the left bank of the river to weaken the defence line in Kherson Region.

According to Zelensky, the destruction did not affect the possibility of the counter-offensive. However, the explosion irreparably damaged the infrastructure and nature.

In fact, it flooded warehouses with substances hazardous for nature and people and burial grounds of cattle, including those infected with anthrax. This makes the water spill area particularly dangerous.

The incident was soon reacted by the international community. According to the UN Secretary-General António Guterres, it was another "devastating consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine". According to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the destruction of the plant is "a new dimension in the war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine". Like Guterres, he did not directly held Russia accountable, but noted that "it is in line with the way Russian President Vladimir Putin is waging the war".

President Zelensky accused the International Committee of the Red Cross and the UN of unwillingness to respond to Ukraine's requests regarding the Kakhovka plant, as well as of overly diplomatic assessment of the events. He also accused both organizations of inaction, saying that their representatives were still absent from the flooded areas. He also criticised the leaders of many states, who were essentially indifferent to the tragedy by not condemning Moscow for committing the terrorist act.

We have yet to hear the truth about the cause of the incident. On June 7, the UN Security Council held a meeting on the destruction of the Kakhovska dam. The next day, a group of representatives from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs arrived in Kherson to assess the situation locally.

In addition, members of five other agencies and NGOs are in Kherson to coordinate assistance with local authorities.

In practice, it can take months to establish the true causes of such incidents. Plus there may be uncertainties about the final conclusions of experts. As was the case with the explosion of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.

Counter-offensive is just the beginning

Ukrainian attempts to launch a local offensive in certain parts of the front line face tangible resistance from Russian troops. This is reported even by leading Western media outlets. For example, according to CNN, which in turn refers to some US officials, the Ukrainian military has suffered heavy losses in both equipment and soldiers due to serious reinforcement of defense positions and minefields by the Russians.

Meanwhile, there are reports of the Russian capture of several positions in Bakhmut, which can create favourable conditions for the next offensive.

Secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, Alexei Danilov, denied claims of the Ukrainian army launching a counter-offensive. Ukrainians refer to positional battles, trying to underline that preparations for an offensive are still underway. At the same time, Ukrainian experts eagerly share maps of the Ukrainian offensive in Orekhovsky, Zaporozhye Region, southeast of the Kakhovka reservoir. 

Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War believe that counteroffensives are taking place in four sectors of the front. Fierce fighting is ongoing near Bakhmut and in Donetsk.

It is reported that Ukrainian troops from the Admiral Mikhail Ostrogradsky 35th Separate Rear Marine Brigade liberated the village of Storozhevoye, Velikonovosyolkovsky district of Donetsk Region, which should be the first major success of Ukrainians in the ongoing military operation.

On June 9, the Law on the Denunciation by the Russian Federation of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE Treaty) entered into force. It was signed by the Russian president on May 29.

The law imposed limitations on signatory states in five categories of conventional armed forces: battle tanks, armoured combat vehicles, artillery, combat aircraft and combat helicopters.

However, according to Moscow, the treaty signed in Paris on November 19, 1990 and effective since November 9, 1992 has not been ratified by the Western states and has hardly ever been respected.  Amid the war in Ukraine, when the sides are building up weapons in the conflict region, the treaty indeed made no sense at all.

At the same time, NATO headquarters takes the opposite position, saying that it was Russia that had refused to fulfil its obligations under the CFE Treaty for many years. The alliance claims that Russia stopped implementing it in 2007 without a legal ground to do so, while Russia's war in Ukraine and Belarus's complicity contradict the CFE Treaty objectives.

In response to Moscow's decision, NATO stated it was committed to reducing military risk, preventing misunderstandings and conflicts, building trust and confidence, promoting transparency and verification and thereby promoting peace and security. It was also said that the alliance will continue consultations on the implications of Russia's withdrawal from the CFE Treaty and its impact on NATO's security.

The alliance is also making it clear that it intends to respond to the situation with more than just words. The largest ever NATO air exercise, Air Defender 23, taking place in Germany on June 12-23 was an event to demonstrate the willingness of participating nations to work together to develop effective military responses to emerging risks.

Obviously, this is a message sent to Moscow. Suffice it to note that 10,000 people from 25 countries participated in the exercise, including 250 combat aircraft. The US alone sent 2,000 National Guard troops and about 100 aircraft to participate in the training manoeuvres.

NATO seems to be seriously concerned about the likelihood of geographical expansion of the conflict and the involvement of alliance member states in it. The exercise calls for participating nations to respond to a simulated attack on a NATO member.

It is difficult to predict the probability of such a scenario in the near future. Yet, anything is possible amid the uncertain outcome of a Ukrainian counter-offensive and the complete erosion of the international security system.