UNDERMINING TACTICS

The situation in the Garabagh negotiation process is uncertain again. Until recently, experts stated that the dialogue had finally intensified. The parties have held talks in Moscow and Chisinau, while a new round of negotiations was planned in the US...

However, the meeting between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Jeyhun Bayramov and Ararat Mirzoyan, in the United States, despite some optimism, now appears to be in limbo.

National diplomacy Armenian style

The Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs was the first to announce that the Washington round had been postponed. According to the ministry, Baku asked to postpone the meeting slated for June 12. It was strange, to say the least, as it is usually the host of the meeting, in this case the US State Department, who announces the rescheduling of dates. Apparently, the Armenian Foreign Ministry does not even know the basics of protocol. The US State Department later clarified: "As for the next round of negotiations, we do not have specific dates at the moment." This was followed by the statement from the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs: "We negotiate a new date for negotiations and hope that this one will take place soon."

Apparently, diplomats are in no hurry to reveal further details. The expert community is speculating, recalling the scandalous statements by the US representative to the OSCE, Michael Carpenter, which gave rise to perplexity in Baku and differed from Washington's official position.

The Russian-brokered round of talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Moscow provides more food for thought. Again, the participants are in no hurry to disclose details of the meeting. The Moscow rendezvous lasted just 20 minutes and ended without signing a final statement. Why? Because of a heated back-and-forth between the president of Azerbaijan and the Armenian prime minister at the EAEU summit, where Ilham Aliyev was a guest.

President Aliyev was telling the summit participants about Azerbaijan's economic and logistical opportunities, which the EUEA member states, particularly the Central Asian countries, might find useful. As a result of the Ukrainian war, traditional communications via the former European part of the USSR are blocked. President of Azerbaijan had much to talk about. This includes the new commercial port in Baku, the ferry crossing, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway... "We see great potential for further growth in trade turnover. Azerbaijan is located at the geographical crossroads of East-West and North-South transport routes. Our country's transport and logistics infrastructure makes the transportation possible in any direction. Azerbaijan has the biggest merchant fleet on the Caspian Sea—more than 50 vessels. The Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway provides access to Europe as well as to Mediterranean ports in Türkiye. Azerbaijan is an important participant of the North-South Transport Corridor Project. We have also initiated the creation of the Zangezur corridor, which will connect mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and will become part of international railway routes. There are eight international airports in Azerbaijan, two of which (in Fuzuli and Zangilan) have been constructed in the last two years on the liberated lands of the country. The ninth international airport is being built in the liberated town of Lachin and will be commissioned in 2025. Azerbaijan has one of the largest air cargo fleets in the region with an annual cargo turnover of over 500,000 tonnes," President Aliyev said.

One would probably expect Ilham Aliyev's statements to throw Pashinian off balance. Azerbaijan's economic success has also contributed to its military potential, which Yerevan realised following the outcome of the 44-day war. Our country's economic and logistical capabilities naturally influence the political positions of the EUEA countries, which are also members of the CSTO. Airports in the liberated lands can be used both for civilian and military purposes.

Then, for unknown reasons Prime Minister Pashinian decided to address the issue of the Zangezur corridor, which he described as part of Azerbaijan's territorial claims against Armenia.

Many news agencies quoted the arguments of both sides that ensued. President Aliyev responded to Pashinian's attacks clearly, with restraint and straightforwardly: "I do not want to open a discussion, but answering the accusative remark about our territorial claims to Armenia, my response is we do not have such claims. One should try very hard or have rampant imagination to interpret my words as territorial claims. As for the term 'corridor', I used it in the same context as I described the North-South and the East-West corridors. Corridor is in no way an encroachment on one's territory. It is an international term, and I think people who are familiar with international terminology would probably not interpret it the way the Armenian Prime Minister did it today." Pashinian tried to continue the argument, but was interrupted by President Putin.

Behind the scenes

Like the expert community, perhaps we could also claim that after the verbal incident at the EUEA summit the Armenian-Azerbaijani meeting is meaningless, that the positions of parties are very distant, the degree of tension is high while the level of trust is low...

But in fact the skirmish at the EUEA summit showed Pashinian's negotiating incompetence. He simply did not understand the term 'Zangezur corridor', trying to use it as an argument against Azerbaijan. In such a situation, trilateral talks would simple be meaningless.

Indeed, Armenia is formally committed to open transport links between the mainland Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan. In parallel, Yerevan is against the control of communications by Russia's FSB, saying that the republic will control the borders and communications exclusively itself.

Obviously, Yerevan fails to fulfil its signed obligations. It is not the first time Pashinian is playing such games. Suffice it to recall the agreements reached at the CIS summit in Dushanbe before the war, which Pashinian forgot shortly after.

The failure of Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations in Moscow seriously hurt Russia's credibility as a mediator. This is particularly offensive for Moscow today, when the gravity of negotiations is shifting to the West. Neither the Kremlin, nor the guys at the Smolensk Square are happy. Armenia is thus cutting the branch it's sitting on.

Seriously though, torpedoing the negotiations is an old Armenian tactic. We have already seen numerous attempts to silence the talks instead of discussing substantive issues, to put forward clearly unacceptable conditions and to avoid fulfilling signed obligations. But delaying the negotiations during the occupation of Azerbaijani lands and confidence in its own military superiority and continuing the same tactic now are two different things. Armenia will have to agree with Azerbaijan on Baku's terms and conditions. Most importantly, if these conditions change in the future, they will certainly not be in favour of Armenia.