DEATH MATCH

Political struggle in the US intensifies with the approach of the US presidential election slated for November 2024. In fact, the court trial of the former President Donald Trump is viewed as part of the ongoing process.

Court cases

The forty-fifth President of the United States is charged with illegal possession and concealment of classified documents during the investigation, obstruction of the investigation, and perjury. These include documents on the US nuclear programme, the defence potential of the country and its allies, as well as the planning of retaliatory strikes in response to an attack on the US.

The prosecution believes that Trump may have been negligent in his handling of sensitive documents, namely by showing secret military maps to guests at his golf club in New Jersey, as well as the plans for an alleged US invasion of Iran. In other words, Trump faces more than 30 charges under the 1917 Espionage Act, which penalises the unlawful possession and disclosure of classified information affecting national security. For each of these charges he can be sentenced to up to 10 years in prison and a maximum fine of $250,000.

Trump was formally arrested and brought before a court in Miami, but was soon released as he was deemed not inclined to flee. The trial is likely to take more than a month and can even be delayed until after the 2024 presidential election. For a trial in federal court, however, the jury must unanimously confirm that prosecutors have proven the criminal intent in the defendant's actions.

Either way, Donald Trump has become the first US president, whether former or incumbent, to be charged with criminal offences. He stated that he believed in his innocence. Furthermore, Trump called the prosecution politically motivated and the charges against him "election interference at the highest level", a "horrific example of abuse of power" by the Biden administration.

Most supporters of the Republican Party believe that the criminal prosecution of Trump is politically motivated, being an attempt to prevent his re-election as president. Trumpists also point to the fact that Hillary Clinton, the former secretary of state under the Obama administration, kept her official correspondence on a private server, but avoided prosecution. Another well-known example is the case of Biden himself, who was vice-president under Obama. After the end of the Democratic administration, Biden took secret government documents out of Washington, keeping them in his home. Rejecting such arguments, Democrats recall that Biden quickly returned the documents. Whereas Trump, even after federal authorities demanded the documents back, refused to do so.

Interestingly, we have yet to know why Trump kept these documents. Some believe that being a hardcore businessman and a master deal maker, Trump thought of using the secret documents in some kind of political exchange. Anyway, this did not save him from accusations of posing threats to the US national security. Meanwhile, another plot has emerged in Trump's dispute with the US justice system, which is used by the ex-president as further evidence of the political motivation of judiciary decisions.

It is the case of President Biden's son, Hunter Biden, who pleaded guilty to failing to pay over $100,000 in taxes. Hunter Biden has reached a plea agreement with prosecutors in his home state of Delaware, which allows him to avoid prison time. This type of bargains is used in the US for non-violent offences where the defendant has a substance addiction problem (Hunter Biden is a drug addict).

Donald Trump sharply condemned the deal: "It's a disgrace to the system, it's a disgrace to America, it's a very unfair situation, it's prosecutorial misconduct and election interference all in one."

Republican leaders backed Trump's discontent. "It continues to show the two-tier system in America. If you are the president’s leading political opponent, the DOJ tries to literally put you in jail and give you prison time. But if you are the president’s son, you get a sweetheart deal,” House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said of Hunter Biden's plea deal, threatening that Republican congressmen will continue to investigate the Biden family.

Amid all these twists and turns, what will be the impact, if any, of scandalous trials on the chances of incumbent and former presidents to retake the White House in 2024?

The odds of two and more

Legally, no lawsuit and no charges can prevent Trump from becoming the Republican Party's nominee. There is no US law preventing the nomination of people accused of offences or even in prison as a presidential candidate. And the fact that the court did not impose any travel or bail restrictions on Trump means that he can campaign unhindered and meet with supporters in various states. Remarkably, immediately after the trial, Trump travelled to New Jersey, where he gave a speech before his supporters, reiterating his willingness to run for president again and demanding that the authorities "destroying the country" close his case.

Apparently, the criminal case has not affected Trump's position in the Republican camp. According to polls, at least half of them continue to view him as their preferred candidate in the upcoming presidential election. However, some influential Republicans criticise Trump for his illegal handling of classified information. This includes former Vice President Mike Pence as well as former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, who is seeking the presidential nomination. The latter, referring to the allegations against Trump as "serious and disqualifying", even called for him to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race.

However, the chances of Pence and Hutchinson becoming serious rivals to Trump are very slim. The 44-year-old Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who has formally declared his candidacy for the US presidency, looks far more likely. Although there are half as many Republicans willing to support Desantis' candidacy as those who prefer Trump, it is possible that his popularity grows in the coming months.

Being a new face of American politics at young age is not the only advantage of Desantis, although he has been in the House of Representatives for five years and won twice the governorship of Florida. The state has continued to make significant progress under his governship, with its economy, social and tourism sectors growing. All these facts are achievements of policies based on conservative ideas preached by Desantis. In other words, there is another serious factor of rivalry between Desantis and Trump, with the former proving his ability to outdo the former president in practice by implementing conservative policies oriented towards American nationalism and traditional values.

Yet, it is Trump that is the most popular Republican presidential candidate, regardless of criminal prosecutions and charges against him.

As for his main opponent, President Biden, he announced back in April his intention to run for president again. It seems that the charges against his son will not affect Biden's plans, nor his position within the Democratic Party. But these plans may be hampered by the continuing decline in his ratings. Yet, a number of experts believe that the 2024 US presidential election will repeat the 2020 scenario, when certain categories of voters were driven not so much by their support for Biden as by their rejection of Trump. They may still dislike Biden and his performance as president today, but if Trump is the Republican nominee, they may once again feel, as they did in 2020, that they have no choice but to vote for the Democratic nominee.

This will once again play into the hands of Trump's possible rival in the Republican camp, should he be opted for over the flamboyant ex-president. It is clear that the upcoming presidential race in the US promises to be sharper and more unpredictable than in previous ones. But the outcome, as has been the case in previous elections throughout the past decades of US global hegemony, will have a serious impact on global politics.

Another factor that can influence the American voters is the course of the Ukrainian war. It is clear that Joe Biden is interested in ending the war before the election, preferably in a way meaning Russia's defeat. Trump is also actively using the Ukrainian issue in his election campaign. For example, he said that during his presidency he had dissuaded the Russian President Vladimir Putin from a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, warning that "it would be a disaster". Trump assures that had he remained president of the US, it would be possible to avoid the war in Ukraine. He also promises that in case of his return to the White House he will "easily end the bloodshed in 24 hours".

Obviously, Trump's opponents do not share his optimism. But such contradictions are also part of the growing domestic political battles in the United States.