CHERRY ON TOP

"He did a great job," US President Joe Biden said when asked by reporters about Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's trip to Beijing on June 18-19. Chinese President Xi Jinping said the two sides "agreed to follow the common agreements" reached on the sidelines of the Bali summit last year and had made progress on other issues. "This is very good," the Chinese leader said.

Regarding the renewal of contacts as a success is another sign of how spoiled the relations between the world's two biggest economies have become.

There are differences of opinion on a variety of topics, including Taiwan, human rights, the origins of the coronavirus pandemic, restrictions on semiconductors and so on. Mutual trust is waning.

Xi Jinping has made "reunification" with Taiwan one of his main goals, stating that China was ready to take control of the island by force if necessary. After House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan last August, Beijing froze official contacts with Washington on military matters.

President Joe Biden's recently released National Security Strategy identifies Beijing as a greater threat to the existing world order than Moscow. Washington now frequently underlines that the Chinese invasion of Taiwan is an increasingly realistic prospect rather than a remote possibility.

As if to prove the point, there were dangerous military clashes between the two countries in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea in June. China argues that it is defending its national sovereignty, while the US insists that US troops are operating in international airspace and waters.

Locked down

So far, most Southeast Asian countries have tried not to lean in with neither China nor the US, participating in joint military exercises with both countries. But they are watching closely to see which of the sides can solve the tense relations.

A recent poll showed that 90% of South Koreans, Filipinos and Singaporeans are concerned about the geopolitical confrontation between the two countries. At the same time, 66% are generally positive about both the US and China, but feel compelled to choose one of the sides.

China warily  watches the US strengthening defence ties with two of Southeast Asia's most populous countries, Indonesia and the Philippines.

Last autumn, Indonesia, the US and 12 other countries conducted a large-scale military exercise together. In addition, the US has increased its military presence in the Philippines, increasing the number of military bases from five to nine.

Many Europeans feel trapped between the two superpowers. 63% of respondents in 12 European Union member states believe a new Cold War is brewing between China and the US. And most of them would prefer to remain neutral in the event of a conflict.

Under normal circumstances, a visit of the US secretary of state to China should have helped develop bilateral relations. Now, however, most experts believe that it can help keep the situation from deteriorating only. Moreover, the purpose of the trip was to lower the temperature rather than to resolve fundamental differences.

In addition, the visit was also a collective message of Washington and Beijing to countries concerned about the conflictual relationship between the two, hinting at their taking steps to reduce tensions.

Still, the question of where this will ultimately lead remains open, especially given the domestic political pressure building up in the US and China.

Father's Day

The Chinese economy is still recovering from pandemic lockdowns, being in a difficult situation. In May, the volume of retail sales and industrial production fell. In June, Goldman Sachs lowered its growth forecast for the world's second largest economy from 6 to 5.4% in 2023.

China needs foreign investors to keep investing in job creation, innovation and technology, and paying tax, even though recent sanctions on some foreign companies have discouraged them.

Beijing continues to signal about China's openness to the world, including to the US companies. In recent months, the leaders of major US businesses have visited Beijing, including the CEOs of Tesla and SpaceX (Elon Musk), JPMorgan (Jamie Dimon) and Apple (Tim Cook).

In mid-June, Xi Jinping held talks with Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, during which he underlined the importance of friendship between the American and Chinese peoples.

This is for the international audience. But for domestic audiences, the visit of the American secretary of state was presented as an example highlighting China's status as a global power, which can both demand and receive respect from other great powers.

It was also mentioned that Secretary Blinken could visit Beijing after months of insistent requests for an invitation.

Blinken was indeed due to visit China back in February. But after the incident with the downed Chinese balloon over the US territory, Beijing cancelled the visit indefinitely.

So the American diplomat arrived, but mainly to listen to President Xi's admonitions. He was taught to respect Chinese interests. During the meeting, they did not sit in chairs next to each other, as was the case with Blinken's predecessors, Mike Pompeo and Rex Tillerson, but at a long table. Not opposite each other, but Chairman Xi sitting at the head of the table, with Blinken sitting where subordinate officials usually sit.

The meeting with the top Chinese leader was not specifically planned either. It was announced just an hour in advance, so that the guests would wait and hope when Papa will be granted audience. Why Papa? The visit "accidentally" coincided with the International Father's Day, happily noticed on Chinese social media.

Then there was a dry welcome on the airport runway without a red carpet, a stone-faced handshake from the Chinese foreign minister, and as a cherry on top for the patriotic Chinese audience—a fatherly, stern lecture at the conference table.

To cement the success, immediately after Blinken's aircraft left Beijing, the Chinese Foreign Ministry made an angry statement blaming the US for tense relations between the two nations, and called the meeting between the Chinese leader and the US high-ranked diplomat a simple "show of courtesy".

Mishap with the president

Remarkably, it was the US that disseminated the evidence proving the correctness of statements made by the Chinese foreign office.

Just a day after the American diplomat's visit to Beijing, where he allegedly did his "best to close the chapter on the spy balloon" in order to try to stabilise relations, the US President reminded everyone of it again. And he did it in a way unflattering for the Chinese leader.

Speaking in California as part of a fund-raising campaign, President Biden for some reason brought up the balloon incident and suggested that Xi Jinping might not have known about it. "That’s a great embarrassment for dictators, when they didn’t know what happened," he said.

Beijing's response was swift. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said Biden's comments were "extremely absurd and irresponsible" and accused the US president of "seriously infringing on China's political dignity, which is an open political provocation".

White House officials had no choice but to try to explain to the Chinese that the president's statement should not be seen as the official position of the US administration.

Bipartisan consensus

Admittedly, the President's internal opponents, the Republicans, liked his statement a lot.

"Biden is right: Xi is a dictator and we should treat him like one. This administration needs to stop pleasing Beijing and start pushing for competitive solutions," said Michael McCaul, Republican chairman of the House Foreign Relations Committee.

Republican members of the Congress criticised Blinken for making the trip to China at all, saying it showed the weakness of the Biden administration and could harm America's national security.

Washington's view on China posing a serious threat is one of the few topics that draws on a bipartisan consensus. And this is why. A recent opinion poll shows that 80% of Americans have a negative view of China compared to 40% a decade ago.

Unblocking the channel

Still, Washington admits that Anthony Blinken's trip to Beijing was necessary because maintaining regular high-level diplomacy between the two superpowers—rivals with the largest economies and armed forces on the planet—is crucial to preventing open conflict.

It is not only the two governments that seek stability in relations, but also their allies and other states.

Whether the two countries will resume military cooperation is still unclear and remains a subject of concern. Experts believe this will be difficult because neither leader wants to be seen as caving in to the other side or accommodating the demands or desires of the opponent.

Nevertheless, both sides of the Pacific realise well that the first visit to Beijing by a senior US politician in five years has lived up to expectations, at least because it unblocked the channel of official bilateral contacts.