WHEN CHEF REBELS

Apparently, the Ukrainian conflict has been quickly transforming into internal Russian tensions, threatening to develop into large-scale destabilisation. It was caused by yet another video address by Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner PMC, where he denied the official version of the war, blamed the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, calling for an open confrontation with the ministry.

Russian President Vladimir Putin regarded the statement as a call for riot and a "stab in the back", thereby ordering the strictest measures to be taken against the Wagner leadership. This could have triggered the rise of internal strife in Russia, but it did not. The situation on the front also remained unchanged. 

Strange riot

It all started after a video address by the head of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on June 23. He said that Ukraine had not bombed Donbass for eight years, but only exchanged blows with Russian forces in the region. According to him, the AFU and NATO did not intend to attack Russia, the security services were innocent, as they did not provide false information to the president. Prigozhin blamed everything on the leadership of the Ministry of Defence and Minister Sergei Shoigu personally, "who killed thousands of Russian soldiers near Gostomel". He said that it was the clan of oligarchs ruling Russia who needed the war in order to install Medvedchuk as the next president of Ukraine.

Prigozhin's statement came after the Russian media launched a "campaign" of almost open discussions of his role in the so-called transfer of power in 2024. It is suggested that Prigozhin is backed by the conservative faction of security forces not actually involved in the Special Military Operation (SMO), which is preparing to take over the supposedly weak power. Most dangerously, in the second part of his video message, Prigozhin called on his military, almost 25,000 troopers, to openly disobey the leadership of the Russian Armed Forces.

On the morning of June 24, President Putin addressed the nation and set the political accents regarding the situation. The months-long uncertainty with the conflict of interest between the leadership of the Wagner PMC and the Russian Ministry of Defence has come to an end.

All these months, Wagner has contributed to the overall action of Russian troops in Ukraine, despite the occasional public statements of the flamboyant PMC owner denouncing the highest military leadership of the country. But then he was part of the plan, part of the team assigned a "special" role. In fact, Prigozhin has always been on the sidelines, be it the front line, the elite showdowns or the information war. Perhaps lately he has become more frivolous in his free interpretations of the storyline, even trying to change it. For some time, he was allowed to do this. But this time Prigozhin was deprived of his role once and forever, whether because he began to enjoy it and demanded for more, or he was put in this situation deliberately.

Perhaps he simply took the risk and moved ahead, realising his unenviable fate, and decided to become a hero rather than end his life somewhere in a trench with a group of like-minded people, quietly and without the usual media noise. That is not so important. However, the incident made it possible to clear up the situation with friends and foes, to consolidate the Russian political elite and to reformat the government under the existing conditions.

This was particularly visible in the subsequent course of events. On June 24, the Wagner troops began to march from the city of Rostov, which they controlled, towards Moscow, demanding the resignation of the leadership of the Ministry of Defence, the adoption of their plan to continue the war and to introduce military reforms.

It seemed that no one would stop Prigozhin, nor would anyone save him. However, his steady advance towards Moscow was stopped thanks to the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko. On the same night, his press office issued a statement, saying that the founder of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has accepted the offer of President Lukashenko to stop the movement of his fighters in Russia and to take further steps to de-escalate tensions. Reportedly, Prigozhin then agreed to redeploy his units to former positions at the front.

But perhaps the most important thing in the whole story was the phrase by Dmitry Peskov, the Russian president's spokesperson, who denied holding any discussions with Prigozhin regarding the personnel changes in the Defence Ministry.

Positional changes on the front

In recent weeks, the AFU has continued the development of localised offensives in at least four sections of the front and has achieved limited territorial gains.

Meanwhile, it was speculated that the military action might be suspended temporarily to assess the situation and determine the areas of future strikes. Officials and public sources claim that a major Ukrainian counter-offensive has not even started yet. However, Ukrainian President Zelensky admitted that the counter-offensive might be going "slower than we would like". According to him, war is not a Hollywood movie, and he will not unnecessarily risk the lives of soldiers to meet the expectations of the international community.

The Ukrainian president's comments came after Vladimir Putin suggested that the intensity of Kiev's long-awaited counter-offensive appeared to have subsided. "Strangely enough, we observe a certain standstill, because the enemy is suffering serious losses, both in personnel and equipment," Putin said.

He also announced that new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons would soon enter service. The nuclear-powered missiles are designed to hit the targets thousands of kilometres away, but their deployment has been slower than planned.

Ukraine announced the liberation of more than a dozen villages as a result of two weeks of offensives in areas with dense mines and Russian air superiority, which proved to be a major setback to progress. Ukrainian troops also had to repel Russian attacks near Kremenna, Eastern Luhansk and in the Serebryansky forest north of Bakhmut, Donetsk.

According to military sources, attacks launched by Moscow as Ukraine seeks to push further south have forced Ukrainian generals to redeploy their troops to fill the gaps.

However, Ukrainian forces have not yet put all their reserves into action. The Ukrainian military command has established 12 brigades for the counter-offensive, nine of which have been manned and equipped by Western powers, but only three are believed to have been deployed.

In his interview with BBC, Zelensky said he would not order his army to attack solely to satisfy the West's need for progress on the front.

Vladimir Putin admitted that Ukraine "has not yet exhausted its combat potential. There are also reserves that the enemy is thinking about where and how to use".

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian side continues its tactic of obfuscation of the Russian military. Earlier, Russian sources reported of two Ukrainian drones having crashed 30 miles from Moscow as they were approaching the depots of a local military unit. Russian media reported that the wreckage of a third drone was found some distance from Moscow. The Russian Defence Ministry reported that the drones had been shot down by electronic warfare, with no damage or casualties reported.

On June 22, the Ukrainian troops hit the Chongar Bridge in the Sea of Azov. It is a strategic facility, providing the shortest route from Crimea to Melitopol and on to the Southern Front.

The bridge strike is seen as part of the AFU's preparations to stop the transfer of Russian military equipment and manpower towards the South-Western Front, where the Ukrainians are actively trying to break through the Russian defence line.

Hard road to recovery

Everyone understands that Ukraine's success will be impossible without consistent and ambitious economic support to the country. This challenging task on funding Ukraine's recovery was discussed on June 21 at an international conference held in London. The donor countries mainly pledged to allocate €60b ($66b) to support Ukraine.

"We did not expect it to be a pledging conference. However, today we can announce at this conference a total support of €60b for Ukraine," head of the British Foreign Office, James Cleverley, said. The EU  plans to provide the bulk of the aid package (€50b) by 2027.

Washington also announced $1.3b in aid, particularly to support the energy and infrastructure sectors. However, it underlines that commitments from governments and international organisations will support Ukraine in the short and medium term.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmygal, who attended the forum, stated that Kiev was going to start rebuilding Ukraine as early as this year, without waiting for the war to be over. Kiev estimated that the country needs $6.5b for the next year only for the restoration of infrastructure. In total, according to Ukrainian estimates, a whopping amount of $600-$800b will be necessary to rebuild Ukraine. The World Bank came up with a more modest indicator of $411b, which is approximately 260% of the country's GDP. This was possible after the assessment of the situation together with the UN and the European Commission.

Shmygal also called for the completion of a compensation mechanism which would allow the use of frozen Russian assets for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Noting, however, that international efforts are currently bogged down in legal debates.

One of the main goals of the conference was to attract the private sector by creating mechanisms to guarantee investment in Ukraine. According to James Cleverly, some 500 companies from 42 countries, including such prominent ones as Google, Siemens, Vodafone, Hitachi, Virgin Group and Rolls-Royce, pledged their support for the cause.

President Vladimir Zelensky joined the conference online and called for greater persistence in pursuing his goals. "The world is watching to see whether we will restore the normal way of life so that our transformation inflicts an ideological defeat on the aggressor," he said.

But everyone understands that no country in the world can meet all the needs of Ukraine as far as the country's reconstruction is concerned, especially amid the ongoing hostilities.

Ukrainians believe that the most real and main source of recovery is the frozen Russian assets scattered around the world. Their exact amount is unknown. Even if the Ukrainian side estimates are true and the total amount of these assets is around $500bn, it is not enough to cover all the Ukrainian losses. Furthermore, there are quite a few claimants for these funds among the Russians who suffered from the war as well.

In 2024, Germany will host the next conference on the reconstruction of Ukraine, and perhaps by that time the fate of the frozen Russian assets will become clearer.