ON THE FAULT LINE

The virtual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) held on July 4 showed very well India's role in contemporary international politics. It is considered to be one of the few countries that is trying to get maximum benefits manoeuvring between the West and its political opponents amid tough confrontation between them. And it seems New Delhi found an original way to achieve this.

Strange summit

Despite the lifting of all the lockdown restrictions, the SCO summit was held online.

There are several explanations for this. First of all, it is related to India's existing contradictions with neighbouring China and Pakistan, which have recently escalated. In these circumstances, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is hardly eager to see the heads of unfriendly countries in New Delhi. Also, it seems that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif were also not very keen to visit New Delhi.

Another reason to hold the summit online could be Russian President Vladimir Putin's possible refusal to travel internationally following the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court in The Hague. Although Indian sources explained it by difficulties in coordinating the schedules of state leaders.

So the organisation of the summit is enough to see the contradictions between the key participants. Yet, no one ever expected that after the admission of India and Pakistan to the SCO, it would be easy to agree on all the main issues on the organisation's agenda. With the admission of another problematic member, Iran, the SCO now looks like an antipode of Western organisations.

However, the majority of the SCO member states prefer to ignore such analogies. They believe that there are no prerequisites for the establishment of an anti-NATO or anti-EU structure in the SCO. Most of them maintain constructive relations with the US and the EU, which is why the bloc mentality cannot flourish in the SCO.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has recently returned from an official visit to the US. In Washington, he was welcomed as a closest partner, and Modi responded adequately. Thus, he could hardly be expected to use any unfriendly rhetoric against the US and India's Western partners.

India, which chairs both the SCO and the G20 this year, is effectively walking a diplomatic tightrope as it has to balance between Washington and Moscow.

Meanwhile, India regards the relations with the US valuable as well. Suffice it to note that during the Modi administration, the US has become the number one trade and economic partner of the country. According to statistics, the US topped the list of India's trade partners in the fiscal year 2022/2023, which ended on March 31. According to the Indian statistical office, the trade turnover between the two countries increased by 7.65% to $128.55b during the period against $119.5b a year earlier.

Relations between the countries have become so close that the US president invited his Indian counterpart to attend the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco in November. India is not a member of APEC but has expressed interest in joining it earlier. It is also possible that Biden will in turn travel to India in September to join yet another G20 summit.

Russian and Chinese presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are also expected to attend the G20 summit in New Delhi in September, where they are likely to cross paths with the leaders of other Western G20 members.

While ramping up its dialogue with the West, India has at the same time refrained from blaming Russia for the war and has significantly increased bilateral trade in 2022 mainly through record purchases of Russian oil, thereby irritating its Western partners.

But this has not worsened the relations between New Delhi and Washington. On the contrary, India is proving to be an increasingly favourable partner for the US, as it is hard to find a better rival to China in the region. In addition, it can be used as a factor of pressure on stubborn Pakistan.

Old problems in a new environment

In his opening remarks at the SCO meeting, Modi said, in an apparent allusion to Pakistan, that some countries were using cross-border terrorism as a tool, and the organisation should not shy away from criticising them. In the presence of Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, Modi called for stronger action against terrorism. He said India's concerns and expectations about Afghanistan are identical to those of most SCO countries. He thus made it clear that Islamabad's flirtation with terrorist organisations in Pakistan could threaten regional security.

Prime Minister Sharif responded that terrorism should not be "used as a cudgel to score diplomatic points. Similarly, religious minorities should never be demonised and persecuted for domestic political purposes," thereby covertly blaming the Indian government for its policies on the Muslim population.

Looking ahead, Modi indicated India's support for the proposal to reform and modernise the SCO and welcomed Iran as a new member. It is possible that under the circumstances, New Delhi can use its relationship with Tehran to facilitate contacts between Iran and the US on the resumption of the nuclear deal.

Given the growing escalation in the Russian-Ukrainian war, no one wants additional global tension, especially when it comes to a neighbouring state. President Xi emphasises the commitment of his administration to developing partnerships with the collective West, in particular with Europe, which is China's main trade and economic partners, not the SCO member states.

Apparently, President Xi finds it easier to engage with the West without annoying it with frequent face-to-face meetings with the Russian president. Especially since the most important agreements between the leaders are reached in person and in behind-the-scenes conversations rather than during online events in front of large-scale audiences.  

The SCO has long helped Russia and China shape the balance of power in Central Asia and mitigate the risks of other players, mainly Western ones, entering the region. However, the organisation has not performed this function effectively enough, given the evolving formats of Central Asia + the US and Central Asia + the EU.

Platform for dialogue or formality

But as a platform for dialogue between different participants on a single geography, the SCO is doing a good job. Otherwise, the number of countries showing interest in cooperation and even membership in the organisation would not increase every time.

Belarus announced its intention to join the organisation at the last SCO summit. Minsk signed a memorandum of commitments that will lead to full membership in 2024. Belarus is interested because it found itself in isolation from the West due to the support of Russia's position on Ukraine. Other countries are interested in dialogue with the SCO because they want to be more closely integrated into the system of pan-Asian political and economic relations. Thus, on May 5, on the margins of the summit of the SCO Council of Foreign Ministers in Panaji, a ceremony was held to sign memoranda granting Kuwait, Maldives, Myanmar and the United Arab Emirates the status of SCO dialogue partners.

Remarkably, both Modi and Xi made it clear that they expected the conflict in Ukraine to come to a peaceful conclusion as soon as possible. Nevertheless, neither of them tried to put pressure on the Russian leader. Even though the declarations of the recent SCO summits supported "mutual respect for the sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity of states" and "non-use of force or threat of use of force".

The SCO summit adopted the New Delhi Declaration, which emphasises the expansion of the organisation by admitting new members. The declaration underlines the role of the UN in establishing a just world order and notes the negative impact of "unilateral and unlimited expansion of global missile defence systems by certain countries or groups of countries". At the same time, the member states did not focus on the expansion of NATO and Western military assistance to Ukraine.

The leaders expressed their concern about the situation in Afghanistan and believe "it is necessary to establish an inclusive government in the country, including the representatives of all ethnic, religious and political groups of the Afghan society."

All member states, with the exception of India, also supported China's One Belt, One Road initiative, which provides for the re-establishment of the Great Silk Road to connect China with Asia, Europe and other countries, taking into account the implementation of costly infrastructure projects.

Interestingly, nothing was said about the North-South project, which also includes the SCO countries and dialogue partners, as well as India, the host of the summit, which is a full participant of the project.

In general, the holding of the summit was not just a formal duty for New Delhi, which it successfully fulfilled. It also showed the extent to which India's efforts to balance the turbulent waters of global politics have been effective. The question is how long these efforts will last.