WHAT ABOUT A WAR TOMORROW?

"It smells thunderstorm in the air". Perhaps, this sacramental phrase most accurately describes the situation in the post-war settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. We can see record diplomatic engagement, including the negotiations in Moscow and Washington, as well as the announcement of a meeting in Brussels, statements about the chances for peace on one hand, and a likelihood of yet another anti-terrorist operation by Azerbaijan, unprecedented in the almost three years since the 44-day war in Garabagh, on the other. The reason behind it is the 10,000-strong Armenian military group still in Garabagh, despite all the previous agreements.

Provocation with grave consequences

Those who consider June 27, 2023 to be a turning point are perhaps right. On that day, Armenian illegal armed groups shelled the positions of the Azerbaijani army in the village of Galaychilar, Aghdam from the area temporarily hosting the Russian peacekeeping contingent (RPC). According to the Ministry of Defence, "the attack left injured one of the servicemen of the Azerbaijani Army, Bekirov Ali Shukur oghlu, who was immediately evacuated to a military medical facility. Azerbaijani units are taking retaliatory measures in the specified area". Moreover, the Armenian provocation took place during the meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers, Ararat Mirzoyan and Jeyhun Bayramov, in the US.

In response, Azerbaijan launched Operation Qisas-2 (Revenge-2), killing five Armenian militants. Remarkably and unfortunately, two of them were identified as Armenian citizens.

In line with the norms of humanity, Azerbaijan handed over the bodies of victims to Armenia through ICRC. However, the incident did not end there. Baku once again asked a very unpleasant question: who is shooting at Azerbaijani positions from the RPC territory, where, according to the agreements, should no longer be any Armenian armed groups?

Unknown Armenian militants

According to Paragraph 4 of the November 10, 2020 trilateral statement, "the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation shall be deployed in parallel with the withdrawal of the Armenian Armed Forces". However, two and a half years after the war, there is still a group of 10,000 Armenian militants in the temporary RPC zone. It is mainly staffed by Armenian conscripts. This group receives weapons and ammunition from Armenia, which also rotates the personnel and gives the militants orders and directives. Until recently, it was mostly about leaks and intelligence data. But now the situation has changed. After June 27, we have evidence such as the bodies of the killed militants. This changes the situation radically.

No ultimatum yet, but...

At the ministerial meeting of the Coordinating Bureau of the Non-Aligned Movement held in Baku, President Ilham Aliyev issued a stern warning to Yerevan: "Although Armenia had to recognise Garabagh as part of Azerbaijan, there are still remnants of Armenian Armed Forces on the territory of Azerbaijan temporarily hosting the Russian peacekeepers". He then said that if Armenia was truly interested in achieving long-awaited peace in the region, its armed forces must have completely withdrawn from the Garabagh region. Armenian military and para-military groups on the area must be disarmed and demobilised.

It is necessary to outline the red lines. Azerbaijan has advocated the resolution of all emerging problems through peaceful, political and diplomatic means. But this should be a real solution, not a bunch of rambling messages wrapped in endless appeals, declarations, communiqués and resolutions. But this requires the goodwill of the other side, which is a problem for Armenia, as it does not intend to change anything and fulfil its legal obligations. Nikol Pashinian's recent statements in the Armenian Parliament prove this, too. He called Azerbaijan's demands "unreasonable", and even after June 27 he assured that there were no Armenian troops in Garabagh. But hardly anyone believed him.

However, there is no way to disbelieve the Azerbaijani side.

Warnings should be heeded

Baku is not accustomed to shaking the air. And one should heed its harsh warnings.

Let us recall: Azerbaijan has previously drawn the attention of both the international community and individual mediators to the illegal military activities of Armenian armed groups in the RPC zone in Garabagh. There was no reaction from the third countries. The result was Operation Farrukh, which resulted in the liberation of eponymous height and village.

As to the Lachin road, according to the November 2020 trilateral statement, the Gorus-Lachin road up to the border with Azerbaijan was controlled by Armenia, and by the Russian peacekeepers further up to Khankendi. Almost immediately it became clear that RPC was not doing its job well. The discovery of Armenian mines manufactured in 2021 at the Farrukh height left no doubt that the Lachin corridor, which was originally intended to be used entirely for humanitarian purposes, was actively used to smuggle weapons and ammunition.

This was followed by another scandal when Madame Valérie Pecresse, a French presidential candidate, travelled to Khankendi on an RPC controlled road with no prior agreement with the Azerbaijani authorities. Then the terrorists like Vova Vartanov, persons banned from entering Azerbaijan, and retired members of the European Parliament appeared in Khankendi. Baku demanded putting an end to the public thoroughfare regime. The situation has escalated when the robbery of gold mines resumed in Garabagh. The result is known. Given that Azerbaijan's concerns about the misuse of the Lachin road have been cynically ignored, no control measures have been introduced and the separatists in Khankendi continued to take advantage of opportunities provided to them, Baku decided to act on its own. A border checkpoint appeared on the bridge over the Hakari River on the conditional border between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Recently, however, the Azerbaijan State Border Guard Service (SBGS) publicly stated the facts of repeated attempts of smuggling various types of goods using the trucks of the ICRC through the Lachin border crossing point (BCP). Since the opening of BCP, Azerbaijan has created relevant conditions for the passage of ICRC-owned vehicles, allowing them to pass through after the relevant border and customs control procedures. However, the SBGS officers have revealed the facts of smuggling phones and accessories for them, gasoline and cigarettes in the ICRC vehicles. Most importantly these illegal steps were not ceased despite repeated warnings from Baku through official channels. "The use of ICRC-owned and medical evacuation vehicles for smuggling is not only a gross violation of the laws of the Republic of Azerbaijan, but also an abuse of Azerbaijan's trust in the ICRC, which is a humanitarian organisation. Therefore, criminal proceedings have been initiated under the relevant articles of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Azerbaijan, and the passage through the Lachin checkpoint of the state border has been temporarily suspended until the completion of investigation," the State Security Service had to state.

But this time the ICRC responded promptly. Just a few hours after the statement, the ICRC's Baku office issued a statement and acknowledged the facts of transporting undeclared goods along the Lachin road, stating that it "does not support such activities". "All humanitarian cargo is checked by the customs authorities of Azerbaijan. But unfortunately, the drivers of four rented vehicles, which temporarily had the ICRC logos on them, tried to transport commercial goods in their vehicles without our knowledge. These individuals were not the members of the ICRC staff, and their service contracts were immediately terminated," the ICRC office stated.

Today, the situation is not just repeating, but it is much worse. After repeated statements about illegal Armenian military groups in Garabagh, there was no proper response.

Azerbaijan is not a country that will allow its soldiers and civilians to be shot at with impunity. Former internally displaced persons are already returning to the lands liberated from Armenian occupation. Baku will not tolerate direct and obvious threats from Armenian militants. The Azerbaijani army knows how to deliver pinpoint strikes. So it is up to the Armenian side to choose.