CONFLICTING PARTNERSHIP

Recently, Türkiye has taken a series of significant steps to demonstrate its interest in deepening relations with the European Union. Apparently, the Turkish political leadership is motivated by two considerations: to strengthen its authority at the international level and to have more influence on Western decisions on Türkiye, and to maximise the benefits of preferential trade with the EU.

Shortly before the NATO summit in Vilnius, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has tied Ankara’s approval of Sweden’s NATO bid to his country’s efforts to enter the EU through negotiations.

"I appeal to those who made Türkiye wait at the EU door for more than 50 years: pave the way for Türkiye and we will pave the way for Sweden," Erdogan told at a press conference on July 10 before heading to Vilnius.

The announcement has sparked speculations as to whether Türkiye has a real intention to become an EU member or if it was just political rhetoric.

NATO summit as a litmus test

Twenty-four hours later in Vilnius, Recep T. Erdogan, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Swedish Prime Minister Kristersson agreed that Türkiye would submit Stockholm's application for NATO membership to the Turkish parliament for ratification. In return, Sweden promised to "make efforts" to modernise the Türkiye-EU customs union and intensify negotiations on visa-free travel.

Before the NATO summit, Erdogan held a separate meeting with the President of European Council, Charles Michel. The latter announced "positive outcome" of the talks. Apparently, the Turkish leader had received Michel's approval beforehand as well.

Remarkably, discussions on Sweden's accession to NATO in the Turkish parliament will not begin until autumn. This will give Erdogan a chance to see how the promises he received be fulfilled. If there are problems, it is unlikely that the protocols will be ratified any time soon.

Even before the elections, the Turkish leadership tried to reach an agreement with the leading EU countries, particularly Germany, on updating the provisions of the customs union between the EU and Ankara. However, no clear guarantees were received.

In previous years, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has repeatedly opposed the continuation of talks between the EU and Türkiye on this issue. Greece was another staunch opponent of the agreement. But recently Ankara and Athens were able to restart the dialogue to restore relations between the two countries.

The dialogue started right after the massive earthquake in Türkiye in February 2023. Remembering the tradition of the so-called earthquake diplomacy initiated twenty years ago, Greece took steps to improve relations with Ankara, using the soft power tools—humanitarian aid to the affected areas.

Given the election campaigns in both Türkiye and Greece, the sides had postponed the dialogue for the post-election period. Now that both Erdogan and Mitsotakis have confirmed their credentials, they seem determined to restart the dialogue. The NATO summit in Vilnius was the right platform to do this.

This was also part of Ankara's programme to normalise relations and resolve the existing problems with the EU. At the same time, Ankara is unlikely to insist on its admission to the EU, as it does not want to take on additional obligations that could affect its foreign policy.

Thorny road to the EU

Türkiye is the EU's sixth largest trading partner, with 3.3% of the EU's total trade turnover in 2022. Meanwhile, Ankara expects to significantly increase its exports to the EU by improving the preferential trade regime. This will increase the attractiveness of the Turkish market for regional economies as well, allowing them to use it more effectively as a trade hub.

Meanwhile, the EU is very wary of Ankara's idea to intensify its participation in the European integration process. Many European politicians doubt the membership for one of the most influential countries in the Muslim world, which has a strong army and an ambitious foreign policy. The main reason is the personality of the Turkish leader, who is feared and distrusted because of his alleged authoritarian style of government. Especially since the failed coup in 2016, which has only worsened Türkiye's relations with the EU. The two sides are also at odds over Cyprus, which the EU admitted back in 2004, while the northern part of the island was recognised by Türkiye as an independent state.

By 2018, EU leaders declared that Türkiye's membership talks had finally "reached a deadlock."

Nevertheless, Brussels understands that it must work with Türkiye, an important neighbour and link to Russia, Asia and the Middle East. And while membership is off the table, European officials are considering options to increase cooperation with Türkiye. Some even believe that the success of this endeavour, if any, can be rightly credited to President Erdogan.

Indeed, Türkiye's application to join the EU club is almost 60 years old. In 1959, Türkiye applied for association with the European Economic Community, the EU's predecessor.

But a series of coups, economic and political instability put Türkiye's integration into the EU on the back burner until finally, in 1999, the country was granted a 'candidate for EU accession' status.

However, there has been little progress in Ankara's accession to the EU. The thing that annoyed Turkish authorities was the continuous expansion of the union from the early nineties to the mid-noughties. New members included the countries that had applied the membership only a few years ago. Türkiye had been patiently waiting at the EU gates for decades.

Problems, controversies and a little bit of hope

In the first years after the Justice and Development Party came to power in Türkiye, Ankara diligently fulfilled the requirements for compliance with the membership parameters announced by Brussels. During this period, Ankara introduced amendments to the constitution, reformed the electoral system and criminal law. However, according to the EU leadership, this was not enough. Türkiye was recommended to solve its problems with the Kurds and improve relations with its neighbours, primarily Greece and Cyprus.

In 2011, French President Nicolas Sarkozy actually openly told then-Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Türkiye's membership in the EU was unacceptable to France.

The new Türkiye would not feel comfortable in the EU anyway, because Brussels would constantly tell it what and how to do, what foreign policy priorities to form. In particular, in the Syrian issue. Thus, the leading EU countries recommend Türkiye to remove its troops from the north of Syria. At the same time, they are extremely reluctant to respond to Ankara's appeals to provide assistance to almost 4 million Syrian refugees living permanently in Türkiye.

So Türkiye is not keen on joining the union. The EU is not waiting for Ankara either. Therefore, the parties are now more focused on achieving mutually acceptable solutions to facilitate free trade. This is much more favourable, as they are going through a difficult period of their history due to both internal and external difficulties. The opponents are substantially considering the possibility of updating the free trade agreement. Initial negotiations on the issue started back in 2014. Since then, according to observers, there has been little to no progress.

The European Commission estimates that the updated free trade agreement could bring about €5.4 billion, or about 0.01% of the EU GDP. Türkiye would also benefit from it, adding up to 1.9% to its GDP.

It is expected that the agreement strengthens Türkiye's integration into global value chains, thereby improving the economic welfare of both parties.

Supporters of the agreement in Germany believe that German companies started their operations in Türkiye 160 years ago and survived the rule of the Ottoman sultans, two world wars and the economic crisis. Markus Slefogt, president of the German-Turkish Chamber of Industry and Trade, argues that "they have survived because the economy is growing by 4.5% every year."

Germany's trade turnover with Türkiye reached around €41b in 2021. This makes Ankara the largest trading partner and one of the main interested parties in the agreement.

Many agree that updating the provisions of the customs agreement between the countries is not a tool for EU accession. Its purpose is solely to improve the business environment, which subsequently means improving the welfare. This expectedly makes the issue of visa facilitation relevant as well. It is assumed that communication between the people even in the business sphere will help to bring European values to Türkiye, eventually contributing to the growth of mutual understanding and political rapprochement.