ARMENIA TO REVIVE ARMY?

Sources in Iran and Armenia have released a new video recording with weapons being supplied to Armenia through the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Apparently, this includes the products of the Indian military industry, including the items produced under a French licence. For audiences in the South Caucasus this clearly demonstrates the position of Tehran and New Delhi with regard to Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as the real value of Iranian talks about Islamic solidarity, etc.

Azerbaijan understandably regards the supply of weapons to Armenia with concern. Baku realises who will be the target of these weapons in Yerevan. On November 10, 2020, when the Trilateral Statement was signed, the South Caucasus had a unique chance to put an end to the war and make a step towards building a peaceful future. But today the Armenian authorities are doing their best to nullify this chance. The process of demarcation and delimitation of the border is actually frozen, a peace treaty is on the agenda, but Armenia is reluctant to sign it, as Armenians are well aware that this will make any of their claims to Karabakh irrelevant. Armenian separatists in Khankendi also refuse to engage in dialogue with Baku.

But what exactly is the goal in Yerevan? Do they simply want to replenish their arsenals? Or is it an attempt to revive the Armenian army to be able to exert pressure on its neighbours? If so, what are Armenia's chances of success in such a dubious project?

No chance of external support

In fact, amid the ongoing tension, Yerevan's attempt to revive its army was an expected move. After all, before the 44-day war, the heavily promoted myth about the "invincible Armenian fighters as strong as lions" helped to support the interest of France and other countries in Armenia. Paris is still flirting with Yerevan today. But at 26 Baghramian St., they realised there was a difference between Armenia supposed to be part of really big geopolitical plans, and the one seen as a platform for pre-election campaign.

Theoretically, arms deliveries from India and France encourage Yerevan to rebuild its army. However, Armenia should also recognise some unpleasant realities. According to the most conservative estimates, during the Second Garabagh War, the Azerbaijani army destroyed and captured as trophies about $5b-worth of arms and armoured vehicles of the Armenian army. We can have lengthy discussions about the share of the armoured fleet Armenia could save. But as military experts point out, if Yerevan had something to fight with, it would not have signed the November 10 agreement.

Before the 44-day Patriotic War and the Ukrainian War, Russia was the main supplier of weapons to Armenia in addition to the existing Soviet arsenal. The Trophy Park in Baku is a perfect platform, which demonstrates both old and new types of Russian military products supplied to Armenia. Moreover, most of the weapons had been handed over to Yerevan as a gift. Something was transferred to Armenia for free, something was purchased with loans issued by Russia. These loans were later either forgiven or repaid by transferring Armenian companies and infrastructure to Russian ownership.

Today, because of the Ukrainian war, Moscow does not even have a theoretical possibility of sending to Armenia $5b-worth of weapons as a gesture. Moscow promises to help Yerevan revive its army, Russian ambassador to Armenia Sergey Kopyrkin said this openly. But how long will it take from promises to materialisation?

Today Armenia seems to be receiving arms from India and France. But the volume of supplies is not worth billions of dollars and insignificant compared to those Armenia used to receive from Russia.

According to media reports, 50 French armoured personnel carriers VAB MK3 were sent to Armenia via Iran. The number sounds impressive, but according to French experts, the vehicles were manufactured almost 50 years ago, back in 1976. The military cooperation between Yerevan and Paris causes concern in Kiev, as Ukrainians still remember the combat aircraft dispatched from Armenia to Russia to support Moscow in the war against Ukraine. Israel does not exclude that some Indian self-propelled artillery guns can stuck in Iran on the way to Armenia. France will be able to ignore these concerns only up to a certain point. France, India or other countries are not willing to invest billions in the Armenian army yet.

For the Armenian army to pose a serious threat to Azerbaijan, it needs to do more than just patch up the holes and return to the state it was in before the 44-day war. Yerevan needs superiority or at least parity. This requires much more money than $5b. That previous army already lost to Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, the Azerbaijani army is creating new units, mastering new weapons and increasing the military budget, which Armenia cannot even dream of. As experts say, money is much more important for successful military construction than beautiful legends and slogans. But Armenia has no money and is not expected to have any in soon. Therefore, replenishing the army's hardware becomes an impossible mission for Yerevan.

It's not the weapons that fight but people

The military equipment is by no means the only problem of the fragmented Armenian army, which Yerevan is now trying to make of something that can combat on the battlefield. Armenian authorities have a serious problem with the shortage of professional army personnel, especially trained officers. Before the 44-day war, Yerevan relied entirely on the military experience of the early nineties. After all, that stage of the Garabagh war, even with impressive external support, was quite successful for Armenia. Yerevan considered it unnecessary to analyse the role of the Kremlin's support then, to assess the change in the balance of forces, and to take into account the military construction programme launched in Azerbaijan. They preferred the narrative about the unique fighting spirit of Armenian soldiers.

However, during the April 2016 battles, the Armenian army faced a very different army than they had expected. The bitter lessons of the 44-day war made them think twice. As it turned out, Armenia was preparing for the past war, while Azerbaijan was preparing for the war of the future: with drones and precision weapons, with a reliance on trained military professionals. The results were quite predictable: military defeat, loss of territory, 12,000 deserters and the strongest psychological shock. With all this in mind, it is difficult to say much about the prestige of military service in Armenia.

Military purges

As to the chances of revival of the Armenian army, we should also recall a series of trials against high-ranking and middle-ranking officers launched in Armenia after the 44-day war. The officers were accused of cowardice, failure to fulfil their duties, abandonment of combat positions, etc. General Grigory Khachaturov, son of Yuri Khachaturov, former CSTO Secretary General, whom the Pashinian government has already tried to imprison, is said to be under attack. Jalal Harutyunyan, the former commander of the military groups of separatists in Garabagh, is apparently next in line. It is clear that the political leadership of Armenia is trying to completely absolve itself of responsibility and blame the generals for the defeat in the Second Garabagh War. But at the same time Nikol Pashinian is solving another, no less important task for himself. After signing the capitulation act on November 10, 2020, Armenia has already faced a military mutiny started by the former Chief of General Staff Onik Gasparian. Apparently, the guys at 26 Baghramian St. are preparing to another one. After all, the positions of the so-called Garabagh Clan are quite strong in the army, where they are still dreaming of bringing down Pashinian. Apparently, the latter is seriously afraid of a military coup and is now trying to weed out potential participants of the new rebellion from the army structures in advance. It therefore seems that the Armenian army poses a serious threat to its supreme commander-in-chief only.