NO FAMINE. THEN WHAT?

Yerevan planned to implement a series of significant moves by initiating the emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. Officially, the original idea was to discuss the humanitarian situation, which the Armenian propaganda machine has been complaining about for several months. Everything seemed to have been planned well in advance, thanks to the wailing and lamentation about the mythical blockade of Artsakh going on for months. Traditionally, the international community, including professional diplomats, react to words such as "hunger" and "humanitarian crisis" instinctively, meaning that Yerevan would have counted on the adoption of yet another anti-Azerbaijani document. However, Armenia predictably failed to present any real evidence of famine and humanitarian catastrophe. Unlike Azerbaijan, which threw just a few of its many trump cards on the table.

Armenia starts... and loses

Firstly, Yerevan should not forget that the UN recognised Azerbaijan as one of its member states in its current borders. The organisation cannot a priori demand from a sovereign state to let its internationally recognised borders be used as a straight-up open passageway.

Secondly, Azerbaijan has been offering to deliver humanitarian supplies to the Armenians of Garabagh along the Aghdam-Khankendi road for many days. It is shorter than the Gorus-Lachin-Khankendi road, has a greater capacity and is not going through the mountainous area. But it is the Armenian side that categorically refuses such offers.

Also, Azerbaijan has repeatedly offered to hold talks with representatives of the Garabagh Armenian community, who have been invited to Baku, but resolutely refused to meet and negotiate.

Finally, the effect was very strong when Yashar Aliyev, Azerbaijan's permanent representative to the UN, showed some screenshots from the social accounts of the Khankendi residents partying at lavish family celebrations. This left no one in doubt about the so called famine in Garabagh. As a result, the UN Security Council meeting ended without adopting any document. Formally, it was a draw but in reality just a resounding failure of Armenian diplomacy.

Perhaps this is not the case when "the world will never be the same again". But it is clear that Armenian propaganda will no longer be able to rant about famine, humanitarian catastrophe, etc., as before.

Programmed defeat

Did Armenia even have a real chance of succeeding in the UN Security Council? Both Azerbaijani and international experts remind us that this is the same Armenia that ignored the four Garabagh resolutions of the UN Security Council for more than twenty-five years. Yet, right after the defeat in the 44-day Patriotic War Nikol Pashinian suddenly called these resolutions "serious documents". Meanwhile, Armenia tried to initiate discussions between the split permanent members of the UN Security Council. It is a perfect example of arrogance to convene a UN session without having real evidence in hand.

Then why?

The ability to soberly assess the balance of forces in the diplomatic arena is clearly not Yerevan's strongest side. Local politicians believe that the civilised, or rather Christian, world has special obligations towards the "long-suffering" Armenia. That it is simply obliged to protect Armenian interests at any cost. Ararat Mirzoyan's office was simply unprepared that to realise that Moscow, Washington and London were not interested in Armenian whims. Perhaps, the emergency UN Security Council meeting was, in a certain sense, a desperate move of Armenian diplomats.

Strong move

Yet, Baku made another strong move. The Azerbaijani Red Crescent Society (ARCS) sent through the Aghdam-Khankendi road trucks with 40 tonnes of flour to the zone of temporary deployment of the Russian peacekeeping contingent. This is the road that Azerbaijan proposes to deliver goods to Garabagh and which the separatists blocked back in the days when Ruben Vardanian was the state minister in the separatist government of the region. AOCP thus put the separatists in an almost hopeless situation. To accept the cargo after their resounding failure in the UN Security Council means to sign a political capitulation and give up playing miatsum. Not accepting it is the surest way to nullify own ranting about blockade, humanitarian catastrophe, bread shortage, etc. Because truly hungry people will not block the road for a food convoy just because they are not satisfied with the delivery route.

Ranting about humanitarian disaster, or status for Garabagh

According to the very accurate account of Russian journalist Yelena Romanova, "a blockade is when machine gunners surround the perimeter of an area, thereby constraining your movement. Starving your children despite the availability of food provided by Azerbaijan is not a blockade, but a show." In fact, the Armenian top brass is the least interested in the humanitarian situation, status and other heart-touching clichés. Yerevan simply faced a problem of inability to verbalise its demands.

Separatists in Garabagh started moaning about the so-called blockade as early as last winter, when a group of eco-activists appeared on the Lachin-Khankendi road near Shusha. There were talks about imaginary famine, humanitarian catastrophe, etc. at all the levels of Armenian and separatist governments. As soon as an Azerbaijani border checkpoint appeared on the bridge over the Hakari River, this hysteria reached its peak.

Meanwhile, there were certain events that preceded both the picket and checkpoint. In the course of demining operations in Garabagh, some mines produced in Armenia in 2021 were detected. It turned out that the Lachin road had been misused to bring Armenian conscripts, as well as professional terrorists like Vova Vartanov, a group of military instructors from Iran, and even the French presidential candidate Valerie Pecresse to the region. Azerbaijan has regularly drawn the attention of the international community, primarily mediators and moderators of the peace process, to the misuse of the Lachin road. Baku has insisted on taking measures, to no avail yet. And then Azerbaijan had to act on its own.

The attempt of Ruben Vardanian to resume the operation of the Gizilbulag and Demirli mines also played an important role. Azerbaijan could not tolerate the robbery of its mineral sources any more.

Most importantly, in violation of all the existing agreements, as well as the November 10, 2020 trilateral statement, there is still a large group of Armenian military (up to 10,000 individuals) in the zone of temporary deployment of Russian peacekeepers. Apparently, Russian peacekeepers are reluctant to withdraw or disarm the group. Although the trilateral statement explicitly states that the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is deployed in parallel with the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces.

No state in the world will tolerate a ticking bomb on its territory.

Of course, Yerevan cannot admit that it wants to be able to smuggle mines, weapons and militants into Garabagh in exchange for gold-bearing ore. Hence the ranting and complaints about the blockade, the gravest humanitarian crisis, etc. Armenians are trying at least to revive the passage through the Lachin-Khankendi road. But the ultimate goal is to get some kind of international presence and international (not Russian) guarantees of security for Garabagh Armenians for a period after 2025. If successful, they can then start discussions about secession for the sake of "salvation". This is why Yerevan and Khankendi categorically refuse to discuss any details on the delivery of humanitarian cargoes.

Top Armenian authorities did the same 35 years ago, at the dawn of their claims to Garabagh. Their public talks concentrated on some socio-economic problems, violations of the rights of Armenians, schools, textbooks and so on. But in practice they refused to discuss anything other than secession from Azerbaijan and reunification with Armenia.

Today, Armenia is trying to play its usual political fraud in a different balance of power. Borders and territorial integrity are serious issues. It is the sovereign right of any state to control and protect its borders, to exercise border and customs control. Therefore, it is better not to try to touch the Azerbaijani border crossing point in Lachin, but to hurry up and come to an agreement with Baku, which offers reintegration, guarantees of rights, development of social issues and state investments.