BETWEEN INDIA AND BHARAT

Restructuring the system of global relations gives birth to new geopolitical and geo-economic trends expected to have long-term effects on the development of a new global political landscape. Undoubtedly, one of the important platforms shaping these trends is the format of the twenty leading economies of the planet, also known as the G20.

Without Russia and China, but with a declaration

The current G20 summit was held on September 9-10 in New Delhi and memorable due to several reasons. Firstly, the leaders of the two largest economies, China and Russia, did not join the summit, albeit for different reasons. Secondly, right before the global event, the organiser of the meeting, the Government of India, announced its intention to change the name of the country to Bharat to "get rid of the colonial legacy".

The summit was held amid unprecedented tension in international affairs and intensified rivalry for spheres of influence between the global leading powers. Therefore, the organisers tried to reduce the heat of passion and did their best to ensure that the meeting of world leaders would bring at least some results, which have eventually been included in the final declaration.

It is no coincidence that the president of Ukraine has not been invited to New Delhi along with the Russian president, although it is the events in and around this country that determine the development of global geopolitical landscape. The organisers thought that his address might contain sharp politicised statements and demands to include in the final declaration paragraphs condemning Russian actions.

According to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the document has been prepared by India together with South Africa, Brazil and Indonesia—a symbolic  message from the global South to the developed economies of the planet.

The document highlighted the need to respect the territorial integrity of states; renounce the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons; fully implement all the terms of the so-called grain deal and strengthen global food security; reform the WTO and promote open and fair trade; stop imposing export bans; better represent developing countries in international financial and economic institutions; and so on.

Global South tired of Ukraine?

Thus, the developing countries represented in the G20 defended the aspects they consider most important for their national interests. They made it clear that the problems of the Global South (inequality, economic restrictions by developed countries, food security, etc.) are an essential part of global issues and need to be addressed.

Among the most important decisions of the summit was the inclusion of the African Union as a permanent 55th member of the G20. Now, along with the EU, the representatives of Africa will also have a chance to voice their concerns and influence the G20 decisions.  Of all African states, only South Africa has been a member of the G20 so far. It is therefore believed that the African Union will give the Global South a greater support within the organisation.

By the way, one of the reasons why Russia was not condemned in the final declaration can also be attributed to the stronger position of countries that have closer ties with Moscow. Taking into account Russia's interests, any references to Russian actions have been replaced by references to the relevant UN resolutions. That is why the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who headed the Russian delegation at the summit, praised the text of the declaration, saying that the "Ukrainian paragraph was not about Ukraine".

It is believed that the only thing the Western countries could include in the declaration was the statement demanding the states to refrain from encroaching on the territorial integrity and sovereignty of other states.

However, French President Emmanuel Macron disagreed, saying that Russia was isolated at the summit because the clause on protecting the territorial integrity of all states has been approved unanimously by the summit participants. He was supported by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

But in fact everything looked like an attempt to justify a big failure, since the final declarations adopted at the previous G20 summits contained far more categorical statements against Russia. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry expressed its disappointment with the summit: "They did nothing to be proud of".

The Putin Factor and China VS G20

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that China has objected to holding the next G20 meeting in the US in 2026. Russia supported the objection.

The decision is largely due to the likelihood of using the summit as a platform for making decisions against the main political opponents. Vladimir Putin can hardly travel abroad due to an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant for his arrest on war crimes charges. It is unknown whether the Russian president will be re-elected next year. But if he is, Russia risks not being represented at the highest level at many international events.

The Brazilian president's statement that his Russian counterpart will not be arrested if he joins the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro in 2024 sounds like challenging the Western countries. President Lula da Silva also said that he planned to attend the BRICS summit to be held in Russia before the gathering in Rio.

Brazil is a signatory to the Rome Statute. In March, Brazilian foreign minister even said that the Russian leader risked arrest if he travelled to the country.

Perhaps the Chinese President Xi Jinping decided not to attend the G20 summit in order to deny India the status of a country imposing a global agenda on China. 

Head of the Chinese delegation at the summit, Prime Minister Li Qiang, urged G20 members to put development at the centre of international politics. He said efforts should be made to establish a more pragmatic mechanism for co-operation and concrete actions to help developing countries deal with issues such as poverty alleviation, financing, climate change, as well as food and energy security.

US President Joe Biden had direct talks with Li Qiang. According to Biden, the main topic of his discussions was stability and the problems of the Global South. The US leader said the Chinese economy was struggling due to the problems of the global economy, but this should not prompt measures to change the status quo of self-governing Taiwan.  "One of the things that is going on now is China beginning to change some of the rules of the game, in terms of trade and other issues," Biden told at the press conference.

Washington is not happy with the situation, as it is investing a lot of resources to contain China as part of its Indo-Pacific strategy. Including security dialogue as part of the AUKUS alliance, which is a new gathering platform for the US, India, Australia, Japan and the UK.

New Silk Road from India

Despite Biden's assurances that the US was not trying to corner China, but rather to establish effective rules of relations, his arguments have hardly convinced the Chinese. After all, a new regional format including the US was announced during the summit. Thus, India, the EU, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the US, France, Italy and Germany signed a memorandum to establish the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which can well be regarded as an alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative.

The project fits well with US efforts to normalise relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The parties remain silent about the details of financing and timing of the project, which involves the construction of railway lines in the Middle East and then connecting them to India via a seaport.

One of the most important decisions of the summit was the agreement to triple renewable energy capacity globally by 2030 and the recognition of the need to phase out coal consumption.

However, there is no concrete plan on this issue. Nor are there any ways to increase the use of renewable energy sources. It was reported that the transition to green energy would require $4 trillion annually. But the sources of this funding have yet to be specified.

Apparently, it is the upcoming UN COP28 climate summit to be held in the UAE this year that encourages the G20 participants to discuss the climate agenda.

For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India's leadership in the G20 was an opportunity to demonstrate the country's growing influence and authority. And most importantly, it was an opportunity to show India's readiness to realise ambitious goals after 2024, when the country will hold the next parliamentary elections. Modi's nationalist government hopes not only to win the elections, but also to realise his dream of "making India great again" in the coming years. And this new India will be called Bharat—the name the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party seems ready to defend by all means.