LED BY THE PROPHET

The US and Israel are discussing steps to expand the Abraham Accords. During his visit to the US in August, Israeli defence minister announced his talks with the US officials to "normalise relations with certain countries".

According to the Israeli minister, the two sides also discussed issues related to Saudi Arabia's nuclear programme and uranium enrichment potential. Riyadh allegedly agreed to normalise relations with Israel in exchange for the construction of a nuclear power plant (NPP) on its territory.

Recent months have seen increasing claims of improved ties with Saudi Arabia, particularly noticeable in the Israeli media. In early September, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen, in a meeting with Bahraini Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al-Khalifa, said that Israel hoped to normalise relations with the new Middle Eastern countries.

What are the Abraham Accords anyway?

Israel's reconciliation with Middle Eastern Arab states was officially launched on September 15, 2020 in Washington, with the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, foreign ministers of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain—Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Abdullatif bin Al-Zayani—and the US President Donald Trump signing a series of agreements collectively known as the Abraham Accords. Before that Israel signed similar agreements with Egypt (1979) and Jordan (1994). But they are fundamentally different from those reached under the auspices of the American administration in 2020.

Back in the time, Egypt and Jordan concluded a truce with Israel as a result of the war. In the case of Bahrain and the UAE, though, we can call the process a reconciliation rather than armistice, as both states have no land borders with Israel and have never been at war with it.

The agreements take their name from Prophet Abraham revered by believers of all three Abrahamic religions - Islam, Christianity and Judaism - and considered to be the common ancestor of Arabs and Jews. The latter point is particularly emphasised in the Abraham Accords.

Agreements provide for the normalisation of relations between Arab countries and Israel, the mutual opening of embassies, and cooperation in various fields, including economy, science and culture. Sudan and Morocco later joined the process. Thus, to date, Israel has established official relations with six Arab countries in the region.

Earlier it was reported that Saudi Arabia would also join the reconciliation process. Riyadh has already taken certain steps in this direction in the past. But no concrete agreement between the two states has been reached. Perhaps because of several factors.

First of all, with the Joe Biden administration stepping into the White House, Washington changed its foreign policy priorities in the Middle East, relegating the Abraham Accords to the background. However, over the past year, the White House has made certain steps to resume activities on the Abraham Accords. According to a number of observers, Washington is doing this in order to secure the support of the major Jewish lobby in next year's presidential elections and to change the image of the American policy in the Middle East. However, there are a number of serious obstacles, with Saudi Arabia being the main one.

Saudi terms

It is no secret that Saudi Arabia is the leading state in the Arab world. The kingdom has a serious influence on North Africa and the Gulf countries. Incidentally, this makes Riyadh the main obstacle in the process of rapprochement between Israel and the Arab states. Yet, in the early stages of the process, the kingdom also favoured friendship with Israel. As the ideological centre of the Islamic world, it is still trying to defend its stance on the issue of Palestine. Yet Riyadh has taken some revolutionary steps to move closer to Israel. For example, by agreeing with Tel Aviv on flights through its airspace. But this arrangement was later suspended for a number of reasons.

One of them came right after Washington stopped supporting the war in Yemen. Another one is related to serious problems that arose between the Saudi Crown Prince and the Biden administration. In other words, Washington has diminished its former authority as the main initiator of the Abraham Accords.

Secondly, despite numerous promises, Israel has not taken tangible steps to resolve the Palestinian question. Willing to remain the unchallenged national and religious leader of the entire Arab nation, Saudi Arabia could not ignore the current situation.

Finally, Riyadh set three conditions for Washington to reconcile with Israel. According to the Israeli media, it wishes to conclude a formal agreement on allied relations with the US, secure the purchase of weapons on an equal footing with NATO member states, and to ensure the construction of a nuclear power plant in Saudi Arabia.

Remarkably, none of these conditions is related to the Palestinian issue, suggesting that there is a room for settlement between the Saudi and Palestinian leaderships.

Earlier the Washington administration compromised by agreeing to a meeting between President Biden and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to keep Saudi oil prices stable. But we have yet to see the future of the Saudis' current terms. Apparently, the construction of a nuclear power plant in the kingdom is causing obvious concerns both in Tel Aviv and Washington.

Chinese barrier

Now Washington is facing another problem. China is rapidly gaining ground in the Middle East, which does not promise anything good for the White House. The unexpected reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia mediated by Beijing in March 2023 was a serious test for the US. After all, it turned out that China is already capable of uniting and reconciling even the worst enemies of the region. Moreover, the event has a direct impact on US foreign policy, prolonging the path of rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Washington still has strong positions and potential in the Middle East. But recent events have shown that it is no longer the sole leader in the region. There are serious alternatives, and most importantly, the regional states are aware of this fact. Saudi Arabia's signing of a $30b investment contract with China was not only a step towards the economic revival of the region, but also a signal to Washington about strong alternatives.

Apparently, this factor is another reason that pushes Washington to become more active in the Middle East in recent months. However, it is difficult to predict how successful the American government's efforts will be in the period remaining before the next elections.

What about Palestine?

The last three years have demonstrated that the Palestinian conflict does not play a serious role in reconciliation between Israel and the Arab states. It is because of the changing regional environment, threats from Iran and the indefinite Palestinian-Israeli conflict. However, the conflict remains a significant factor in Arab and Muslim life that cannot be ignored.

Recently, the Palestinian administration presented its position and expectations regarding the Arab-Israeli rapprochement to the Saudi authorities. According to the Saudi media, the administration of Mahmoud Abbas has signalled that it might show leniency towards the process. This can be considered significant progress since 2020. Until now, the Palestinian Authority's key demand to Riyadh has been the recognition of Palestine as an independent state by Israel. It is clear that these efforts are doomed to failure while the extreme right-wing government of Benjamin Netanyahu is in power in Israel. That is, Abbas' condition is a serious obstacle to Arab-Israeli reconciliation.

Riyadh's official position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the return of Israel to the borders before the Six-day War (1967) and the establishment of an internationally recognised Palestinian state, as demanded by the US and UN authorities. In fact, the Israeli-Palestinian reconciliation plan put forward by Jared Kushner under the Trump administration did not envisage this at all. It proposed that the Palestinians create their own state within the current borders. However, all US governments before Trump, as well as the Biden administration, insist on a return to the 1967 borders. In other words, if reconciliation does take place, the demands of the Palestinian leadership will be ignored.

But it seems that the Saudis will still take some actions to persuade Mahmoud Abbas to compromise. These include, for example, inviting a Palestinian delegation to Riyadh and appointing Naif al-Sudairi, the Saudi representative to the Kingdom of Jordan, as ambassador to Palestine and consul in Jerusalem (with residence in Amman). However, it is unknown how sufficient these gestures will be and whether they will satisfy the Palestinian leadership, as well as the administration's political-military groups, which have previously made a number of tough demands on the UAE and Bahrain.

Thus, the issue of Arab-Israeli reconciliation is getting increasingly complicated. Saudi Arabia, as an independent state, can make peace with Israel based on its own national interests. However, in this case Riyadh may lose its reputation among Arabs and Muslims. But Tel Aviv and Washington need Riyadh to continue developing the Abraham Accords. Either way, at least for the next year, it will probably be impossible to agree on anything concrete.