THERE'S PROGRESS, FINALLY

The situation in and around Garabagh still deserves attention. The Armenian leadership headed by Nikol Pashinian is trying hard to escalate it on the one hand, while being foolishly confused in its own initiatives on the other hand. Including in the 'political road strategy', where Azerbaijan has made several strong and winning moves. The trucks with flour sent by the Azerbaijani Red Crescent Society continue standing still on the Aghdam road, as the separatists do not allow them to pass further. Moreover, on September 9, a truck with food dispatched by the Russian Red Cross crossed the border between Azerbaijan and Russia. It was initially assumed that the Armenian side, i.e., the separatists, would let the Russian cargo through. However, it got stuck in Barda. Separatists did not let it through either. Then they were forced to retreat. On September 12, the truck moved to Khankendi along the Aghdam road. Obviously, this tactical retreat will continue.

Optional blockade or...

Apparently, the Armenians, especially their solicited and unsolicited lawyers, enjoy ranting in public about hunger and blockade. But according to Azerbaijan, the solution to the infamous road problem depends on the Armenians of Garabagh. Baku has repeatedly highlighted its readiness to send humanitarian and commercial cargoes through Aghdam. Also, in 24 hours after the separatists unblock the Aghdam road, Azerbaijan will open the transit of humanitarian and commercial goods through the Lachin checkpoint in compliance with the necessary border and customs procedures. Thirdly, simultaneous opening of both roads is also possible. However, in all cases the Armenian separatists fail to follow the agreements. For several reasons. Both the senders of these humanitarian and commercial cargoes in Yerevan, Strasbourg and Paris, and the recipients in Khankendi do not want to go through Azerbaijani customs with the following consignment notes: "Destination: Khankendi, Republic of Azerbaijan". As soon as they do, all their speculations with self-determination and Miatsum will stop. Plus, and most importantly, the puppet authorities in Khankendi are more interested in maintaining the former regime of a revolving door in Garabagh than the transit of humanitarian and commercial cargoes. Because it allows them to smuggle into the zone of temporary deployment of the Russian Peacekeeping Contingent (RPC) everything and everyone – from Armenian-made mines to Valerie Pecresse. Recently, the mayors of Paris and Strasbourg Anne Hidalgo and Jeanne Barseghian visited Armenia and posed for a photograph against the background of trucks with posters about humanitarian aid to so-called Artsakh. But... the trucks never reach Khankendi and the show ends with nothing. Moreover, external players are gradually giving up their positions. Initially, Azerbaijan was demanded to open the Lachin corridor. But now the discussions revolved around two separate roads, with appeals made without specifying concrete addresses. This is a significant shift that makes many people in Yerevan and Khankendi nervous. The latter has become an arena for a number of very interesting events recently.

Coup d'etat

On September 9, the unrecognised parliament of Nagorno-Karabakh held an extraordinary session in Khankendi and elected Samvel Shahramanian an equally illegitimate president of Nagorno-Karabakh. He succeeded Araik Harutyunian.

Baku regards yet-another show with presidential elections a provocation and an attempt to speculate on separatism and false statehood. Most external players, including Türkiye, Ukraine, Georgia, Uzbekistan and the EU, did not recognise the elections either. What is behind the scenes?

The change of power through the presidential elections in Khankendi took place after another provocative stunt by Yerevan. On September 2, Nikol Pashinian sent a congratulatory message to Khankendi on the occasion of "the day of declaration of independence of Artsakh". Baku assessed  Pashinian's letter as an attack against the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Azerbaijan, which nullify previously reached agreements. Baku reminded that Armenia promised to recognise the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. How should we understand such messages from Yerevan to the junta in Khankendi?

In fact, the presidential election in Khankendi threatens to completely destroy the post-war negotiation process. Because there is no doubt in Azerbaijan that the ongoing events in Khankendi is nothing but a political farce staged by "directors" in Yerevan. And the change of power in Khankendi has a direct impact on the balance of forces in Yerevan itself.

Return of the Garabagh clan?

On the same day when Pashinian sent his provocative congratulatory message to Khankendi, "a rally of solidarity with brothers from Artsakh" was held in Yerevan. The event was also attended by the leaders of the Garabagh clan, Robert Kocharian and Serzh Sargsyan. Most experts regarded it as a bid for revenge. In this context, the political show in Khankendi gets a different interpretation. The RPC zone in Garabagh is a natural bastion of the Garabagh clan. Armenia believes that Moscow is betting on Kocharian, Sargsyan and his supporters. Araik Harutyunian is also sort of Garabaghi, but he has been regarded as Pashinian's man unlike the current president. We have yet to see whether Pashinian is trying to sacrifice his man and calm passions at least in Khankendi or whether he is starting a tactical retreat in the local political arena. Either way, the fate of the ongoing round of internal Armenian rivalry will be decided both in Yerevan and Khankendi.

Pashinian unleashed. Moscow too

The next appearance of Kocharian and Sargsyan in public, as well as in the political arena, coincided with the aftermath of processes between Russia and Armenia. Experts believe that the relations have already reached the boiling point. Viktor Krivopuskov, one of the most prominent Armenian lobbyists in Russia, was not allowed into Armenia. Now Yerevan is afraid that all those who have been considered Armenian lobbyists in Russia will now promote Russian interests in Armenia. These interests do not always match the interests of Yerevan, particularly those of Nikol Pashinian. Armenia is openly flirting with France and the EU. They refuse to join the CSTO exercises, rather preferring to join the ones with Americans. The Armenian government has sent the Rome Statute to the parliament, which means an attack against Vladimir Putin. Pashinian's wife Anna Hakobian visited Kiev for a summit of first ladies and gentlemen.

There have been sharp moments in the relations between Moscow and Yerevan before. And each time Yerevan has backtracked after demonstrating some whimsical behaviour. This time, however, Russia's reaction was unusually harsh. The Armenian ambassador was invited to the Russian Foreign Ministry for a head-slapping. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used very harsh statements against Armenia. So the Armenian government if not in panic, then certainly has serious concerns. They realise that Armenia is too dependent on Russia. Crawling to the West in a situation where the Kremlin controls the country's external borders, energy, gas networks, mobile communications and railways is out of the question. The West, despite all gestures and curtsies, is not ready for serious political investments in Armenia either. At least until it is convinced that Yerevan is serious and will not get involved in yet another series of events that took place back in 2013, when Yerevan did not sign the association agreement with the EU at the last minute and preferred to join the EAEU.

Meanwhile, relations with Moscow have now been spoilt beyond repair and at the most sensitive moment: when Armenia started pulling troops to the border with Azerbaijan. It is unlikely that the miniscule deliveries of weapons from France and India boost Pashinian's confidence. There is no need to be a military strategist to understand that after Azerbaijan trophied and destroyed $5b worth of Armenian armoured vehicles during the 44-day war, fifty French APCs won't make any difference. But Yerevan, thanks to its selfishness, believes that France and the rest of the West will immediately step in to help the long-suffering Armenia at the first retaliatory shot from the Azerbaijani side. But...

At the beginning of September, Nikol Pashinian frantically called world leaders, including Macron, Scholz, Raisi, Garibashvili... Macron was the first one to receive his call. But it seems the Armenian prime minister could get any guarantees neither from him, nor from the German chancellor. He had to assure his counterparts of his readiness to hold talks with President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev. He failed to talk with Putin at all, although it is likely that he called him anyway. This is nothing but a black mark for Pashinian. Apparently, Moscow is fed up with his geopolitical manoeuvres.