SIGNIFICANT VECTOR OF DEVELOPMENT

In a rapidly changing world, with old formats fading out and new ones just emerging, many observers, analysts and politicians focused their attention on the first-ever summit between the US and the states of Central Asia (CA). To some extent, it can be considered Washington's full-fledged bid for special interests in this strategically important Eurasian region.

Safety first

The event took place on the margins of the UN General Assembly session in New York on September 19 and ended with the adoption of a joint statement. It reflects the priority areas of co-operation between the Central Asian countries and the US on the other hand, and specific principles on which this co-operation should be based on the other.

In fact, the statement largely coincides with another important document – Washington's strategy for Central Asia for 2019-2025. To some extent, it complements and updates the document adopted even before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

We can assume that this event, or rather its global consequences, is the reason why Washington has recently become actively interested in the Central Asian region. The format itself was established in 2015 and has since seen numerous contacts between the US secretaries of state and the leaders of regional countries.

At the current summit, Washington proposed a new agenda for co-operation, emphasising the resolution of security issues. In particular, President Joe Biden pledged to strengthen co-operation with Central Asia in counter-terrorism, as well as in border security and law enforcement. As of 2020, the US has invested $90m in border security through training and the provision of vehicles and equipment to prevent drug and weapons smuggling and terrorist infiltration.

Central Asian countries are important partners of Washington in Afghanistan. When the US troops were leaving the country in 2021 due to the well-known events, they used the logistics of Central Asian states as their main route. Today, as individual regional states engage in dialogue with the representatives of the current Afghan leadership to ensure regional security, Washington is also demonstrating a serious interest in this process.

It is also known that for many years Afghanistan has hosted international terrorist organisations fighting against the spread of American influence in Central Asia and Middle East. Many of these organisations also pose a threat to the Central Asian states. Currently, Washington is interested to see these countries providing security and conditional curation of the Afghan issue in the region. It is believed that this would help them to act more actively in neutralising risks and threats both to themselves and the US. 

This point was highlighted in the text of the final declaration: as the situation in Afghanistan remains an important factor for security and stability in Central Asia, the parties reaffirm their commitment to co-operate on security issues, support human rights and fundamental freedoms, including those of women and girls. The establishment of an inclusive government representing all ethnic, religious and political groups in the country is the main goal of the common endeavour.

Economical background of US-Central Asian relations

Economic relations were also one of the key topics of recent discussions. President Biden told the summit participants about the importance of promoting trade with American companies and investment in the private sector. According to the previous report by the US State Department, the private sector has invested more than $31b in commercial ventures in the region. At the same time, the Central Asian countries are showing openness to attracting large investments to promote large-scale projects attractive for foreign investors. Remarkably, economic cooperation will be in the focus of the upcoming C5+1 meeting on sustainable development slated for October 2023. 

One of the missions of the US economic policy in the region is to reduce Russia's influence and, most importantly, the growing influence of China. Yet, Washington clearly lacks effective mechanisms to achieve this, especially to intensify economic cooperation with Central Asia, although there are significant opportunities to diversify and deepen trade and investment ties.

In 2022, US trade turnover with the region was just under $3.5b, about ten times less than that of Russia and China. Despite geographical constraints compared to Russia and China, the development of the Middle Corridor opens up the region to Western markets. Central Asia also has the potential to become another global IT centre and dramatically increase exports of services to the US, Europe and East Asia, given the existing boom in IT platforms.

Cumulative US foreign direct investment (FDI) in Central Asia exceeded $40b in 2021 and was almost entirely spent on hydrocarbon development in Kazakhstan. China's FDI in the region reached $70b in 2022, but due to the slowdown in the Belt and Road Initiative, this figure may decline over the next few years. Russia, with its economy struggling due to war and sanctions, invested only $3.6b in 2022. Therefore, Western capital and expertise can play an important role in diversifying investments to balance existing resource extraction and physical infrastructure projects.

Suffice it to note that Kazakhstan has the world's largest uranium reserves, which are mostly exported to Russia. US assistance for moderate uranium enrichment in Kazakhstan can increase its exports, as the green transition in the West prioritises the nuclear energy development. Both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan would like to increase their potentials in light and food processing industries. But they need capital, expertise and good governance to make significant progress. The idea is that diversified national economies will contribute to the economic growth of the entire region. This will make Central Asian states more resilient to external shocks and less dependent on powerful, potentially stronger neighbours.

So perhaps the most unexpected event at the summit was the proposal to start a C5+1 dialogue on mineral development, as critical minerals such as chromium, copper and lithium are essential for the production of clean energy technologies.

Central Asian countries, particularly Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, have great potential to utilise their mineral resources to increase international recognition. Especially since the US seeks to break its dependence on China for mineral imports, which currently dominates the global market for essential minerals. Supplying 26 essential minerals, it is the largest source of imports to the US. It is believed that this format will be mutually beneficial for all participants, and dialogue in this direction can become a core element of bilateral relations in the future.

Human rights a priority no more

Western observers note that the US president deliberately did not talk about human rights so as not to worsen the background for the new phase of dialogue. Instead, Biden pointed to the importance of civil society defending the rights of individuals with disabilities and women. The White House statement emphasised the commitment to women's economic empowerment. This is a hallmark of the new phase of the US-CA relations, which narrows the focus of topics, moving discussions from more polarising issues to issues of feminist activism in the region.

Instead of emphasising human rights, Washington has opted for more streamlined language, limiting itself to a willingness to work together to promote the rule of law and democratic governance. At the same time, given the exceptional role of young people in Central Asian societies, the US is paying particular attention to working with them, particularly in vocational training. The document states that the US is committed to continuing support for higher education institutions both in Central Asia and in Afghanistan, seeing this as a means of expanding regional ties and intercultural understanding. It also calls for the identification of new opportunities for increased co-operation in the cultural, educational, scientific and social spheres and the development of closer people-to-people ties.

In order to realise these goals, the parties agreed to hold regular bilateral meetings both in the C5+1 format and at the highest level with the participation of the US Secretary of State and the US President. The decision clearly indicates that the Central Asian vector of American foreign policy is getting a special meaning and will transform into a separate direction.

During the discussions and following the summit, the parties noted the importance of the route linking Central Asia with the main US allies in Europe. It is well known that this route runs through Azerbaijan. Thus, all the major agreements on connecting the region with Europe also affect the interests of the Republic of Azerbaijan. It is no coincidence that the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev was also invited to the last meeting of the Consultative Council of CA countries. This means that Azerbaijan can expect a positive effect from the New York summit of the leaders of the five Central Asian countries with the US President.