HISTORICAL MOMENT

Armenian separatists of Garabagh announced self-dissolution. According to Samvel Shahramanian's decree, all state institutions and organisations of the separatists will be dissolved by January 1, 2024, and the illegal, unrecognised entity called Nagorno-Karabakh Republic will cease to exist.

The decision was a result of the local short-term (less than 24 hours) anti-terrorist operation by Azerbaijan held on September 19-20, 2023. The remnants of Armenian armed forces in Garabagh, as well as the illegal military groups of Armenian separatists were defeated and disarmed by the Azerbaijani army.

Ticking bomb

For several weeks before the incident, there has been a growing tension around the remnants of the separatist regime in the zone of temporary deployment of the Russian peacekeeping contingent (RPC). According to the truly sensational data revealed by the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry to the representatives of diplomatic corps, there were more than 10,000 troops of the Armenian armed forces illegally deployed in the temporary RPC zone in the Republic of Azerbaijan. They were equipped with more than 100 tanks and other armoured vehicles, over 200 heavy artillery systems, including multiple missile launchers, dozens of various electronic warfare systems and over 200 mortar systems. By the way, these were the same electronic warfare systems used by Armenian militants in Garabagh against the civilian aircraft in Azerbaijani skies. Pilots know how dangerous this is.

In fact, Garabagh was a classical grey zone, as Hikmet Hajiyev, Aide to the President of Azerbaijan, described the situation. Like a ticking bomb. Azerbaijan reminded that Armenian military units should have been withdrawn from Garabagh in November 2020, as indicated in the trilateral statement signed between the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia. Pursuant to the 4th paragraph of the agreement, "the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation shall be deployed in parallel with the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces".

Although Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian tried to deny the remnants of Armenian Armed Forces in Azerbaijan, the so-called administration of the Armenian separatist regime in Garabagh had to admit: "An agreement has been reached on the withdrawal of the remaining units and servicemen of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia from the zone of deployment of the Russian peacekeeping contingent, as well as disbanding and complete disarmament of the armed formations of the Nagorno-Karabakh Defence Army and the withdrawal of heavy equipment and weapons from the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh with a view to their early disposal".

All these events took place amid the ongoing 'road war'. Separatists continued shouting about a blockade, while blocking the Aghdam-Khankendi road used by Azerbaijan to deliver food and other aid to the Armenians of Garabagh. Then, however, Armenians had to let a Russian truck with humanitarian cargo from the Red Cross pass through. This left no doubt that the roads were actually blocked by the separatists.

However, on the morning of September 19, the situation went bad. A truck struck an anti-tank mine and exploded on the Ahmedbeyli-Fuzuli-Shusha motorway under construction killing two employees of the Azerbaijan State Agency of Motorways. Shortly after, a KamAZ truck hit an anti-tank mine, killing four police officers on their way to the site of the previous incident. Baku immediately stated that this section of the tunnel road under construction had already been cleared of mines left over from the Armenian occupation. It meant that new mines that killed six people were planted by Armenian reconnaissance and sabotage groups. In other words, the mine terror had stepped onto a new, much more dangerous level.

For obvious reasons, Baku could not even theoretically tolerate the mine terror against the people returning to the districts liberated from Armenian occupation. Moreover, Azerbaijan would not tolerate a threat to its civil aviation. Radio jamming by separatists was a direct and clear threat to civilian aircraft. Aircraft accidents in modern civil aviation almost always cause triple-digit casualties. Armenian militants did not stop fortification works either, openly signalling that they were not going to follow the post-war agreements. What else could trigger the anti-terrorist operation of Azerbaijan?!

Anti-terrorist blitzkrieg

Azerbaijani army complete the operation in less than 24 hours. This deserves very serious attention, perhaps even more than during the 44-day war, which is being studied in the world's leading military academies.

The Azerbaijani army demonstrated the blitzkrieg of the 21st century by breaking through the Armenian echeloned defence line in less than 24 hours and forcing the separatists to capitulate. In doing so, they acted with surgical precision, preventing casualties among the civilian population of the area. Especially since separatists were actively using civilians as human shields.

Right after the incident, at the emergency session of the UN Security Council, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov reported that the hostilities had ceased, and a meeting was held between representatives of the central authorities of Azerbaijan and the Armenian population of Garabagh.

The talks were held first in Yevlakh and then in Khojaly, resulting in deliveries of fuel, food and other humanitarian aid from Baku to the Armenian population of Garabagh.

Azerbaijan also proposed a roadmap for the reintegration of Garabagh Armenians, promising them guarantees of security and all the rights enjoyed by Azerbaijani citizens.

It is clear that one or two such meetings are not enough to solve all the problems even theoretically. But there is some progress. Azerbaijan has again solved the problem on its own. Now it is up to the Armenian side, which has long ignored the hand extended by Azerbaijan and disrupted the dialogue.

The aftermath

The incident could have certainly been avoided. After the fall of 2020, Azerbaijan and Armenia had a chance to start working on a peace treaty, to begin the gradual reintegration of Garabagh Armenians into the legal, political, cultural and social space of Azerbaijan. To finally give people the opportunity to make a peaceful choice: to stay in Khankendi, Aghdam, Khojavand, get Azerbaijani passports and live under the laws of Azerbaijan or move to Armenia. And to decide calmly, not in aggressive manner.

But, unfortunately, the puppet top brass in Khankendi preferred to continue the game of Miatsum and military provocations, wasting time. Now Garabagh sees the gradual start of all the processes that should have started there three years ago.

"We in Azerbaijan are indeed witnessing historical moments, days, and years. Our historic victory in the Second Garabagh War, the restoration of sovereignty five days ago as a result of a successful operation are historic events. We are rightfully proud of it," President Ilham Aliyev said at a joint briefing with the President of Türkiye in Nakhchivan on September 25.

Azerbaijan is returning the region occupied more than 30 years ago to its legal framework. Soon the Azerbaijanis ethnically cleansed by Armenia during the First Garabagh War will start returning to their native lands.

Experts are confident that there is a chance to advance the works on a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But this will take place in the future.

Meanwhile, Yerevan is diligently provoking a mass exodus of the Armenian population from Garabagh. It may seem that Armenia does not need tens of thousands of 'refugees' who need to be sheltered, fed and employed. However, the course of events shows that there are plans to accuse Azerbaijan of ethnic cleansing. Despite the statements of ordinary Armenians that nothing threatens their life in Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan provides to them both the safe movement and humanitarian and medical assistance, Armenia and its foreign patrons are accusing Baku of ethnic cleansing. Such accusations come from the countries have long kept silence about the expulsion of one million Azerbaijanis from their homes more than 30 years ago.

Either way, another meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is slated for October 5. It is expected to take place on the margins of the European Political Community summit. Similar meetings have been held repeatedly in the EU after the 44-day war. But now the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia will have to talk amid a new landscape shaping after the battle.

BRIEFLY:

Ilham Aliyev: "As a result of the anti-terrorist operation that took less than a day, the Armenian army that illegally settled on the territory of Azerbaijan surrendered, accepted our conditions, and thus Azerbaijan has fully restored its state sovereignty".