IDEAL OPTION

The date of the next presidential election in Egypt is known. Chairman of the Egyptian Central Election Commission, Walid Hamza, said that the elections were slated for December 2023. Egyptians living outside the country will be able to participate in them on December 1-3, and the locals citizens on December 10-12.

If the first round of voting is unsuccessful, that is, if any of the candidates fails to get the required 50+1 votes, a second round will be held in early January 2024. But this is less likely.

Candidates are already known. On top of the list is the country's incumbent president, Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, who has ruled Egypt since 2014. He put forward his candidacy during a three-day Homeland History conference held earlier this month in Egypt's new administrative capital near Cairo. The other contenders are former MP Ahmed Tantawi, the chairmen of the Social Democratic Party of Egypt Farid Zahran, Abdel-Sanad Yamama of the Wafd Party, Hazim Omar of the People's Republican Party and Jamila Ismail of the Constitution Party.

Incidentally, Omar and Yamama have previously supported Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi. Therefore, it is likely that they will do the same in the upcoming elections as well.

Six-year presidential term

President Al-Sisi has been in office for 9 years, since his re-election for a second term in 2018. Meanwhile, in 2019, the Egyptian legislation was changed. While the president of Egypt could be elected twice for four years according to Article 140 of the Egyptian Constitution (2014), now the presidential term has been increased to six years. The amendment was supported by 485 of 596 deputies of the Egyptian parliament.

Other constitutional reforms introduced in 2019 included the expansion of the rights of the Egyptian army to defend the constitution, a bicameral parliament, and increasing the quota of female MPs to 25 per cent.

Thus, unless there are any major changes, Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi will be able to rule the country for another twelve years.

The army man

Supporters of the incumbent president called for his re-election back in September, hanging relevant posters in the streets. Most analysts studying Egyptian politics do not even doubt al-Sisi's re-election.

Marshal Abdel-Fattah Said Hussein Khalil al-Sisi was born in Cairo in 1954. After graduating from military school (1977), he served in various positions in the army. He has worked for a while as a military attaché in Saudi Arabia. He studied at one of the military academies in the US.

Al-Sisi later headed Egyptian military intelligence and held senior positions in the army command. He was Chief of Staff, Minister of Defence, and before the 2013 military coup, which resulted in his election as Egyptian president in 2014, he was Commander-in-Chief of the Egyptian Army and head of the Supreme Military Council.

Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi represents the army in accordance with Egypt's long-established military traditions. In the twentieth century, state affairs in the republican states of the East were usually run by army generals, with the armies of these states operated as semi-independent institutions. Over the years, the army has remained a major player in the government affairs of Türkiye and Pakistan. Egypt has a more extensive and long tradition in this regard. The governance of the country by army generals amid the absence of dynastic power dates back to the Mamluk era. Under Ottoman rule, Egypt was governed by viceroys and pashas. This tradition was briefly paused in 1920-1953 under King Farouq. Even Egypt's first king, Fouad, was an army officer, or pasha. The only exception was King Farouq, who was overthrown by the military during the 1953 coup. Colonel Gamal Abdel Nasser, his successor Anwar Sadat and finally Hosni Mubarak were also army commanders. After Mubarak was overthrown in 2011 in the wake of the Arab Spring, a civilian politician from the Muslim Brotherhood movement, Mohammed Morsi, was elected the president of Egypt for the first time. But he could stay in power only for a year. The reason for Morsi's overthrow was the Tamarroud (Uprising) movement launched by the military in 2013, which brought Egypt back under the control of the army.

Due to its scale and heterogeneous structure, the Egyptian army can rightly be called a state within state. It ranks 14th in the world ranking and entered the top ten for the first time in 2020. There are about 1 million soldiers and officers serving in the Egyptian army. It is considered the largest in the region with 215 combat aircraft (1,054 in total), 4,200 tanks and more than 11,000 armoured vehicles. Interestingly, despite great economic difficulties, Egypt continues to purchase the latest military equipment and weapons.

Among the reasons why Egypt feels the need to maintain such a large army is the unstable situation in the neighbouring African and Asian states, the threat of radical Islamist armed groups within the country and the role Egypt plays in the region as... a policeman. Egypt's limited participation in military operations in Libya, as well as its support for the Arab coalition during the war in Yemen, has given rise to all sorts of speculation about Egypt's role as the Middle East's Arab policeman in future.

With a population of more than 110 million, Egypt is currently experiencing a serious economic recession and needs help from its Arab neighbours. At the same time, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are interested in Egypt as an ally in possible military conflicts. In return, Cairo receives large financial aid every year.

Egypt has tense relations with Ethiopia over a dam on the Nile River, as well as a constant risk of war with neighbouring Libya and Sudan. In this sense, a large Egyptian army is in the interest of the allies of Egypt.

President with no alternatives

It is clear that currently there is absolutely no alternative to President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi. He is a symbol of the strength of the Egyptian army, maintains good relations with the regional states, in particular with Arab authorities supporting Egypt, and ensures stability inside the country. So despite the difficult economic situation, employment problems, and a shortage of major energy resources, all these factors matter. With only a small fertile strip of land along the Nile, Egypt is the world's largest importer of grain products.

Egyptian economy: between hope and reality

The economy remains the biggest issue for the Egyptian authorities and President Al-Sisi personally. The region's most populous and fastest-growing economy has to ensure low unemployment rate and economic prosperity.

Egyptian economy is considered the largest in Africa after Nigeria. In recent years, it has grown between 4-5%. Just over 50% of the national income is provided by tourism and services, 35.6% by industry, and 11% by agriculture. The country's gross national income is just over $400b. This is not a big number for a country with 110 million people.

Some time ago, the Egyptian government announced the Egypt Vision 2030, a programme which aims to ensure an economic breakthrough in the country. Thus, the government promises to turn Egypt into a major exporter of industrial products and technologies in the Middle East and North Africa by 2025. In recent years, Cairo has made serious progress and attracted more than $140b of foreign investment into the country.

However, the real socio-economic situation in the country is not encouraging. Currently, Egypt's external debt is more than $165b, with only $30b in reserves, which is three times less than its annual imports ($90b). This means a considerable shortage of foreign currency in the country. The Egyptian pound is rapidly depreciating every year. To get out of the situation, the government turned to the International Monetary Fund and a few Arab countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar), with which it maintains normal relations. Despite promises to provide Cairo $22b of financial assistance as cash and capital investment, the actual transfer of money is still in question.

Conclusion

Egypt can be called the point where the notorious Arab Spring started and ended miserably. It clearly demonstrated the complete ineffectiveness of European-style democratic systems in the Arab geography, where stability and socio-economic living conditions still remain priorities, and there is still a radical ideological polarisation going hand in hand with powerful tribal traditions. The ongoing political crisis in Tunisia and the ongoing civil war in Syria are clear examples of this. Democracy imposed on Egypt through a revolution lasted only a year. The conflict between political Islamists and the army, which traditionally favours a secular and authoritarian system of government, resulted in the latter's victory.

In addition, democratic elections in such a densely populated, resource-poor, predominantly Muslim country would also mean the return of political Islamists to the scene. But this is a scenario frowned upon by the Egyptian army, political and economic elites, as well as by friendly Arab and allied Western states. Therefore, the ideal head of state for Egypt in the current circumstances is Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi. Until the next unanticipated revolution, of course.