BLACK SATURDAY

October 7, 2023 split into before and after not only the lives of thousands of Israeli and Palestinian families, but also the recent history of the Middle East. The region has been a hot spot since the second half of the 1940s, with all the terrorist attacks, militant infiltration, and small-scale skirmishes - all this is a reality of Israeli life. But the country has not been under attack on such a large scale in the last 50 years.

Unexpected war

Israeli journalists reconstructed the Hamas attack scenario. The attack began around 6am. First, an unprecedented rocket attack on Israeli cities - at least 2,500 rockets. The air raid sirens did not go silent for 7 hours. The first groups of terrorists overcame the defence wall between Israel and the Gaza Strip by paragliders. At the same time, they demolished the walls with construction equipment. The attack also came from the sea - on small boats. But the real nightmare took place in the south of the country, where militants broke into the city of Sderot and the communities of Kfar Gaza, Magen, Bari, Sof... A terrible tragedy was played out in the vicinity of Kibbutz Re'im, where Hamas militants shot the participants and guests of the SUPERNOVA music festival held in the Negev Desert in the open air. 260 bodies were found at the site of the tragedy. In total, more than a thousand people were killed in Israel as a result of the terrorist attack. The count of the missing goes into the hundreds. And there is no doubt that many of them were captured by terrorists and taken to Gaza. Whole families have been killed.

Public opinion in Azerbaijan reacted immediately. Flowers, candles and children's toys were carried to the Israeli embassy.  Against the background of the recent events in Karabakh, we remember the deliveries of Israeli weapons, combat drones and anti-missile systems to Azerbaijan.

There is almost open gloating in social networks in Armenia because of the co-operation between Azerbaijan and Israel. Experts recall that on the eve of the Hamas attack on Israel, Yerevan vandalised the only synagogue in the city. ASALA took responsibility for this "act of intimidation", promising to attack Israelis around the world. Coincidence? Or is it simply that Armenia has once again demonstrated its long-standing ties to the world of international terrorism?

Analysts are discussing how such a nightmare in Israel became possible in the first place? Why did Israel's intelligence services, rightly considered the strongest in the world, overlook the preparations for the attack? Why was the army's response so late? And why did the terrorists manage to transfer the war to the territory of Israel itself? There are many versions. And each of them, as it were, has a right to exist.

Some believe that Israel had no intelligence bridgehead in the Gaza Strip, had to rely solely on technical espionage, and that Hamas leaders, in turn, were pretty good at encryption, trying to use less electronic gadgets, etc.

Others remind us that in 1973, when the Doomsday War began, the Arab countries also managed to take Israel by surprise. There is also the fact that American intelligence agencies did not notice the preparations for the attacks of 11 September 2001, hardly because the CIA, FBI, NSA, etc. lacked professionalism. Analysing intelligence is always a bit of a guessing game, where there is a risk of "seeing" exactly what one wants to see. What the Israeli intelligence services knew about the military-intellectual potential of this group did not raise suspicions that they were capable of organising such a large-scale invasion.

It was only later that experts would come to the conclusion that the attack was planned and carried out, without a doubt, not by stupid fanatics. To direct a seemingly unorganised crowd against the protective wall, to skillfully "stuff" it with professionally trained fighters, to use paragliders, boats and launches, and to subordinate it all to a single plan - Hamas was not expected to do this. That's why they missed it. Moreover, the Hamas attack came at a time of unprecedented internal political division in Israel. The Netanyahu government's judicial reform brought tens of thousands of demonstrators onto the streets. The debate between "religious" and "secular" has intensified. As recent tragic events have clearly demonstrated, internal political division can seriously affect the fighting ability of a country like modern Israel. Such is the price of democracy. It should also be noted that the invasion began early Saturday morning, after the holiday of Sukkot. This naturally led to a somewhat delayed response.

 The factor of surprise, finding gaps in Israel's defences, knowing when to change posts at the defensive wall - all this can provide the terrorists with only temporary success, but not strategic gain. That there would be a harsh response to the attack was, of course, not in doubt from the beginning. But then what was their goal?

Beat your own to...

What took place in southern Israel on 7 and 8 October, although outwardly resembling a military operation, was in fact a terrorist attack. And a terrorist attack, as we know, has quite a different purpose: to spread fear and panic, to demonstrate vulnerability... We can speculate about the possible motives of the likely perpetrators. And there is no doubt that they are. Hamas could not even theoretically have prepared such an action on its own. Someone might not like the support of Ukraine, and someone might not like Israel's activity on the world arms market.

It should be noted that Israel has launched an unprecedented - and very successful - "diplomatic offensive" in recent months. It has normalised relations with Turkey, which was greeted with great joy in Azerbaijan. He has built bridges with many Arab countries. And, finally, the long-awaited event took place - Azerbaijan opened its embassy in Israel. Undoubtedly, this was very displeasing to the radical wing of the same Iran. The same Arab countries of the Gulf are ready to be friends with Israel. This means that it is high time to make the old clichés about the "Zionist regime", "civilian casualties in Gaza", etc. relevant. It is hardly by chance that the Iranian leadership, although it did not openly admit its responsibility, welcomed, in fact, the attack on Israel.

Israel's response - who should be prepared?

After the nightmare in southern Israel, the authorities, in the person of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, promised Hamas "a return fire of a magnitude never before known to the enemy". In recent years, Hamas has relied on the fact that the world community would amicably hang onto Israel's hands in the first attempts at a sweep. But now those calculations may not work. Israel's military and political cabinet has declared war - the first time this has happened in the country's history since the 1973 Doomsday War. Reservists are being drafted into the army. Many of them, being abroad, are in a hurry to return to their homeland as soon as possible and get into the ranks. The US is already sending a second aircraft carrier group to the Eastern Mediterranean. And this is a sure sign that this time the matter is unlikely to be limited to the familiar scenario of an anti-terrorist sweep of Gaza. Experts do not rule out strikes on "decision-making centres", which means that Iran is under threat.

And this is already a risk of a large-scale war in the Middle East. Having sown the wind, those who ordered the Hamas attack have every chance of reaping the storm. Of course, no one is interested in a large-scale conflict, above all Iran's neighbours, including Azerbaijan. But, unfortunately, peace requires that everyone wants it. And for war, the desire of one of the participants is enough.