IRANIAN URANIUM

Iran's nuclear programme still occupies the international political agenda. The processes around it have intensified again after Washington's statements about the likelihood of Tehran developing nuclear weapons very soon.

Constant threat

The annual report of the US Department of Defence "Strategy for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction" released in early October indicates that Iran has the necessary capacity to produce enough fissile material to build a nuclear device in no more than two weeks. At the same time, the Pentagon admits that Tehran will not be able to implement its nuclear weapons programme in the short term. It simply states the fact of such a possibility, which is one of the threats posed by Iran.

Another threat, according to Washington, is that Iran does not comply with its obligations to control chemical weapons. Pentagon believes that Tehran has not provided a full list of Iranian facilities producing chemical weapons, as stipulated under the current agreements. In addition, the US is concerned with Iran's capability to develop nerve agent offensive weapons. Given Tehran's actively developing military cooperation with Moscow amid the Russian-Ukrainian war, Washington views Iran's policy as a "constant threat". However, the key threat is still considered Iran's nuclear programme.

The US and other international negotiators (Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany), who reached an agreement with Iran in 2015 to limit its nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief, are focused on the possible renewal of the deal. It was violated in 2018 when the Donald Trump administration announced its withdrawal from the deal and tightened sanctions against Iran. In response, Tehran stepped up its nuclear programme and denied having any plans to build nuclear weapons.

The Joe Biden administration is attempting to restore the Iran nuclear agreement. In July 2022, Tehran expressed a similar desire, but no serious negotiating breakthrough has been achieved since.

In February 2023, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released a statement about Iran's possession of over 87.5kg of uranium enriched to 60%. Experts claim that it is enough to bring it to the level of 90% to create a nuclear warhead. Later there were reports about the growth of Iranian stockpiles of highly enriched uranium—by more than a quarter of the February data. This obviously causes concerns around the world, primarily in the US, signalling a new approach by the Biden administration to restart negotiations with Tehran.

Apparently, the White House admits the possibility of a new deal that would relax the sanctions regime in return for a partial freeze of Iran's nuclear programme. However, there are new obstacles to materialise this opportunity and to resume the previous deal. One of them is Tehran's decision to withdraw the accreditation of eight IAEA inspectors from France and Germany.

Outcast inspectors

The West and the IAEA criticised this decision. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken saw it as evidence of Iran's reluctance to take the responsibility for the development of its nuclear programme. The EU, the coordinator of the 2015 deal, called on Iran to reconsider its decision because, according to Brussels, it seriously affects the agency's ability to carry out its verification activities.

Thus, Tehran's actions are regarded as an attempt to limit international monitoring of its nuclear programme. Even though Iran, in accordance with Article 9 of the Safeguards Agreements of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, has the right to refuse accreditation to IAEA inspectors carrying out checks at the country's nuclear facilities.

Mohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran, expressed Tehran's concern over the dismissal of a number of Western observers and assured that Tehran was complying with all the requirements of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and that the IAEA had full access to the operation of relevant facilities.

Co-operation with the IAEA is, in fact, the West's priority demand. Washington has clearly called on Iran to take de-escalation steps and to strengthen cooperation with the agency, if it wants to reduce tension and free up space for diplomacy. Washington sees this as the first step towards the possible restoration of direct or indirect US-Iran talks.

How does Tehran assesses the first step that could defuse the situation and ensure its effective dialogue with the West, primarily the US?

Is a new good deal possible?

Answering the question 'why Iran was enriching uranium to high levels if its nuclear programme was peaceful?' asked by CNN, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi responded that initially there were no plans to enrich uranium above 59%. According to Raisi, Iranian authorities had been firmly committed to their obligations made under the JCPOA before "the UK, France and Germany went along with US sanctions against Iran" and stopped honouring their commitments. Therefore, Raisi noted, they had to respond by obtaining weapons-grade uranium. Tehran insists that the aim of these actions is not possessing nuclear weapons. If Europeans "return to their commitments, rest assured that the Islamic Republic, as in the past, will stick to its commitments too".

Iran also stated that it seeks to restore the JCPOA through negotiations. However, it considers the lifting of sanctions as a key prerequisite. In fact, Tehran constantly refers to this aspect as part of the Western obligations under the JCPOA.

President Raisi said that Tehran expected the lifting of sanctions on Iran, which would be a significant step forward to return to the JCPOA norms, clearing the path to a good deal. He added that "the West has tried to initiate contacts through some channels, but words must be accompanied by actions, talk alone is not enough."

Despite Tehran's assurances, there is still an assumtion in the West that the Iranian nuclear programme could be a cover for the development of nuclear weapons. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken reiterated the US position: the US will continue to take all possible steps to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons that threaten the security of the entire Middle East region.

Undoubtedly, this position will become even stronger amid the large-scale war between Israel - the closest US ally in the region - and the radical Palestinian movement Hamas, which began on October 7. Israel has always opposed the development of Iran's nuclear programme, seeing it as a direct threat to its national interests, as Tehran openly advocates the elimination of the Israeli state. At the same time, the Israeli leadership believes that Iran's strategic goal is the creation of nuclear weapons. Hence Israelis' rejection of the nuclear deal with Tehran. Now we can expect further escalation of tension between the US, Israel and their European allies on the one hand and Iran on the other hand. This is due to the role that Iran has played in supporting Hamas' military action against Israel. The role recognised by the leadership of the movement, which thanked Tehran for providing the weapons used in the attack on Israel. This will definitely have an impact on the situation surrounding the development of the Iranian nuclear programme. This is a real problem, which can be resolved peacefully, at least for the time being, solely after the renewal of the JCPOA.