IMPORTANT ELECTIONS

The recent parliamentary elections in Poland showed the potential, ambitions and weaknesses of this Eastern European state claiming an important role both in the region and on the international stage. Despite becoming the winner of elections, the front-running Law and Justice (PiS) party actually lost them. The votes it received are still not enough to form a cabinet, even with its possible ally, the far-right Confederation. At the same time, the centre-right pro-European Civic Coalition (ECC), together with the Third Way alliance and the Nowa Lewica party, has an opportunity to form a coalition majority in the Sejm and present the new cabinet. Thus, many observers agree that the eight-year rule of PiS is coming to an end.

However, the development of events depends on many factors. After all, one of the most important indicators of the last vote is the actual split in society. The election campaign was heated, with a record turnout rate of 74%. The results showed that Polish society is divided in at least several ways. Thus, residents of large cities mostly supported the ECC, while in rural areas voters favoured PiS. According to the international research company Ipsos, 70.9 per cent of voters in the 18-29 age group went to the polls, compared to only 46.4 per cent in 2019. Exit poll shows that PIS is not very popular among the youth. It is also interesting that the turnout rate among women was higher (74.7 per cent) than among men (73.1 per cent). Apparently, women are more inclined to trust the future of the country to the Civic Coalition and Levitsa.

According to the Polish law, the first meeting of the newly elected Sejm must take place no later than 30 days after the official election results are announced, i.e. no later than November 14. After the departure of Mateusz Morawiecki's government, President Andrzej Duda will have to appoint a new prime minister and form a new cabinet, which must be approved by the majority of votes in parliament. According to observers, the PiS will probably not give up so easily, trying to secure the majority. After all, according to the same law, a coalition in the Polish parliament does not have to be documented, as everything will be decided during voting. Interestingly, President Andrzej Duda, a member of the PiS, has the right of veto. It may be that the new government fails to secure the necessary votes, or two-thirds, to override this veto.

Meanwhile, Donald Tusk, the leader of the centre-right Civic Coalition, the political force that has rallied all opposition members around him, is considered the most likely candidate for prime minister from the opposition. Tusk is favoured as prime minister primarily due to his vast experience as a prime minister and a president of the European Council with personal contacts with many world leaders. But the question is how stable the coalition will be. Currently, the opposition is trying hard to get rid of the PiS in the first place. But this will not be enough in future.

It also remains unclear how the PiS will survive the forthcoming changes. Thus, discord and divisions between its supporters are possible. Also, Poland will soon hold elections to local government bodies, followed almost immediately by elections to the European Parliament.

What worries the Poles?

Donald Tusk called the elections the most important for Poland since the fall of communism. Now the political force rushing to power will have to pass a serious test of running the country in very difficult conditions. Poland is going through a difficult economic situation fuelled by a number of factors from the previous focus on social issues to the coronavirus pandemic and rising energy prices. This also includes disagreements with Brussels, which has affected the payment of funds from the EU budget.

The new cabinet will also have to deal with a whole range of social policy problems like adjusting the retirement age, views on the relations between the state and the church, media regulation, the state of the judicial system, etc. As to the Polish foreign policy, hot topics include relations with neighbours and Brussels in particular, disputes about dealing with migration issues and the climate agenda...

And all these issues will have to be solved as soon as possible. This requires political maturity and foresight, as well as the ability to compromise. It is also necessary to find a solution to the above split in the Polish society. The success of these endeavours will largely depend on the involvement of the entire Polish population. That is, the government must unambiguously act in the interests of the entire society.

The parliamentary elections were conducted in parallel with a referendum. Most of the Polish citizens hinted at external problems of the country. Thus, 96.96 per cent of Poles do not support the reception of thousands of illegal migrants from the Middle East and Africa as part of the forced relocation mechanism imposed by the European bureaucracy. Also, 96.16% of respondents said no to the elimination of barriers on the border with Belarus. During the 2015-2016 migration crisis that broke out in Europe due to the massive inflow of migrants, the European Commission tried to adopt a plan for the relocation of refugees. This met a strong opposition from the PiS government. In autumn 2021, when thousands of migrants from Afghanistan and Iraq wanted to illegally cross the Polish border from Belarus, the Polish authorities behaved extremely harshly and categorically refused to let the migrants through, even using force.

What worries the EU?

Traditionally, Warsaw has had difficult relations with Brussels. The latter accuses Poles of right-wing populism and puts financial pressure on Warsaw. At the same time, Poland is undoubtedly a European state. Yet, some of the trending European values like the attitude towards migrants and the LGBT community have failed to take root in Poland, known for the strong Catholic mentality, especially among the rural population. As a result, there is a sharp internal political confrontation, as demonstrated in the elections. Thus, while the ECC sees Polish policy in line with the EU line and takes into account the interests of Germany, the PiS, on the contrary, is very cool towards Brussels and Berlin. Some observers interpret this as Warsaw's attempt to follow its own path, although in fact PiS is obviously aimed at close contact with the US and NATO.

Warsaw continues to strengthen its security under the NATO umbrella. In 2016-2021, Poland's military budget has increased by more than 1.6 times. The government launched  an extensive programme to upgrade the military equipment and weapons. As stated by Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak, Poland will have the strongest land army in Europe. There is the Three Seas Initiative (Intermarium) strongly related to the American military presence, which also demonstrates the proximity of visions between Warsaw and Washington.

Interestingly, a number of analysts suggest that the Intermarium may even be used as an alternative to the EU. Thus, the rumours about Polexit (Poland's exit from the EU) do not look fantastic. According to opinion polls conducted this spring, the number of Poles who see EU membership as a threat to the country's independence has for the first time exceeded the number of those who think otherwise.

The Ukrainian issue has a special significance for Poland in the context of Warsaw's relations with the EU, and this is understandable. Western observers are very concerned whether Warsaw's support for Kiev changes after the formation of the new government. After all, all experts note that the issue of Ukraine has not been even mentioned during the pre-election campaign. In fact, the issue affects Poland directly because the country is flooded with Ukrainian refugees and because of the so-called grain crisis and the proximity to the military zone.

It is true that Poland has very complicated and sometimes even hostile relations with Russia, but the same is true for the relations between Warsaw and Kiev. Suffice it to note the Polish calls for no more arms supplies to Ukraine or for the cancellation of social payments for refugees. The far-right Confederation is even voicing anti-Ukrainian slogans. After the outbreak of war in Ukraine, 1-1.5 million Ukrainian refugees found themselves in Poland, receiving material assistance. They have access to health care and education and compete on the labour market. If some Ukrainians decide to stay in Poland, a large national minority will appear there. At the same time, we should not expect any drastic changes in Poland's attitude towards Ukraine under any circumstances in the domestic political situation. Although there are assumptions that these relations will become more relaxed under Tusk.

With all these factors in mind, it is not surprising that the elections in Poland are attracting so much attention in the EU and in the US. After all, Poland is the easternmost flank of NATO and the EU. It is also important to consider that Warsaw has quite serious geopolitical ambitions. The question is how it will achieve them.

To imagine the approximate future of Poland, it is necessary to know to some of its past history. Polish statehood has developed under the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Duchy of Warsaw, the Kingdom of Poland, and the Second Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Poland was part of the Russian Empire. It was under Nazi occupation, then it was part of the Soviet zone of influence. Now Poland is a member of the EU. Not surprisingly, the country's citizens have suffered many historical traumas and grievances. Which of them are worth fighting for to the end, and which should be left in the past? These are the questions that the future rulers of Poland will have to answer.