FAILED IMPEACHMENT

The October 18 events in the Georgian parliament will undoubtedly go down in the political history of this country and, perhaps, of the entire region. Thus, the legislative body of Georgia reviewed the impeachment of President Salome Zurabishvili. The formal reason is that she made a European tour without the consent of the government. This means the violation of the Georgian laws though. Meanwhile, many people believe the incident is indicative of serious disagreements between the president and the government.

The Georgian constitution requires that at least the two-third of 150 MPs support the impeachment initiative. However, only 86 MPs supported it with their votes. So Salome Zurabishvili retained her post. But does it mean the end of the story? How will the attempt to remove the president affect the policy of Tbilisi?

The Russian question and two Georgian answers

The split between the president and the government has been visible for a long time. The trigger was the bad news that came from Brussels. On March 3, 2022, Georgia applied for EU membership together with Moldova and three days after Ukraine. But while Ukraine and Moldova became the EU candidates without preconditions, the European Commission gave Georgia 12 recommendations, or rather requirements: to improve the electoral law, to end political polarisation, etc.

Right after that Salome Zurabishvili vetoed the government's bill on expanding the powers of law enforcement officers. This was followed by another veto of the law on foreign agents, which the liberal public in Georgia considered a copycat of the Russian law. This led to violent mass protests in Georgia, and Zurabishvili then sided with the protesters.

Finally, another reason for disagreement was the resumption of flights between Georgia and Russia, which unilaterally interrupted the service in 2019 and resumed it in May 2023. Georgia has not adopted any decisions on this issue. But the European and pro-European institutions demanded that Tbilisi interrupt these flights. Georgian Foreign Minister Ilya Darchiashvili considered the resumption of flights as Russia's sovereign right and noted that the flights would make life easier for Georgians who have relatives in Russia. However, Zurabishvili considered the Russian decision a provocation and declared it unacceptable "as long as Russia continues its aggression against Ukraine" and occupies Georgian territory. The flights resumed, however. During the celebration of Georgia's Independence Day, president made a wry remark: "It is incomprehensible and offensive when today we count how many millions we will receive as a 'gift' [from Russian flights]. Do we sell our dignity for 200 or 300 million?"

Both Brussels and the pro-European institutions expected and expect the Georgian authorities, as a possible candidate for EU membership, to join the sanctions against Russia. However, Tbilisi is in no hurry to do so. This again causes disagreements between the president and the government.

Pro-Russian Dream?

One may be tempted to declare the Georgian Dream government pro-Russian, to accuse it of keeping the former president Mikhail Saakashvili in prison and seeking to oust the current President Salome Zurabishvili, a Georgian of French descent. But some clarification is necessary.

Pro-Russian parties are unlikely to achieve any significant success until Georgia's territorial integrity is restored. There may be soft- or hardliners, but pro-Russian parties are doomed to be marginalised. It is true that the Georgian Dream is associated with oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, but there is a big gap between the Dreamers and politicians like Nino Burjanadze. In addition, it is hard to say where the Dreamers" excessive proximity to Russia ends and where their opponents' attempts to play on Georgia's European dream begin.

There are issues with sanctions as well. Is Georgia, not being a member of the European Union, obliged to join them? Well, it may be a good way to demonstrate solidarity with partners, but what will be the price? Georgia is too dependent on Russia economically. This did not change under Saakashvili, whose government was headed by Russian oligarch Kakha Bendukidze as Minister of Economy. There is no real alternative to sell Georgian tour packages, agricultural products, and wine other than to the Russian Federation. Besides, Tbilisi is an EU candidate, but not a member of NATO. Therefore, Tbilisi is afraid to make any sudden movements towards Moscow for obvious reasons. Moreover, Georgians still remember the five-day war in August 2008, when Georgia led by Saakashvili failed to receive the expected support from its Western allies. So, in general, it is understandable why Georgian authorities do not want to take risks.

But apparently Zurabishvili's supporters find playing political games in public the most convenient way to interpret the disagreements between the government and the president.

French plans and Georgian realities

What is the real reason for the split in the Georgian leadership? Is the incident over?

Theoretically, Salome Zurabishvili can rejoice her retaining the post. But 86 votes in favour of her impeachment is quite serious. She may not face a second impeachment, but can well turn into a lame duck, i.e., a president who is just finishing her term.

Georgia is a parliamentary-presidential republic. Formally, the president is the head of state, but it is the prime minister who governs the country. Salome Zurabishvili is more of a symbolic figure. Her impeachment is thus not the same as, say, the Watergate scandal.

Zurabishvili had everything to become a symbol of Georgia's European dream. An ethnic Georgian, she was born and raised in France, where her family emigrated after the fall of Georgian independence in 1921. She came to Tbilisi under Saakashvili as French ambassador. She then became Georgia's foreign minister. However, the beautiful story about a Frenchwoman of Georgian origin who returns from Paris to the banks of the Kura River and leads her country to a bright European future is hampered by one circumstance: Zurabishvili is unable to find a common language with Georgian political forces. She was in Saakashvili's team for a short time, soon to become his opponent. Then she joined Saakashvili's opponents - the Georgian Dream coalition. But as recent events show, her relations with the Dreamers did not work out either. It was the ruling party that initiated the Zurabishvili impeachment. And it is hardly a matter of her difficult character. Apparently, Georgian soil is not very favourable for Zurabishvili's French political ideas.