WAR IS OVER. NO WAY TO FORGET

The November 8, 2023 parade in Khankendi was truly a landmark event. For Azerbaijan, it was not just a celebration of the third anniversary of the victory in the 44-day war. Baku was thus signalling a major shift in the entire region. Thanks to swift anti-terrorist raids on September 19-20, Azerbaijan eliminated the illegal junta in Khankendi and fully restored state sovereignty within its internationally recognised borders.

The most long-standing conflict in the former USSR, commonly (and shamefully) called "Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict" in a bias-free language instead of "Armenian aggression", is part of history now. There are no grey zones and hotbeds of tension left on the territory of Azerbaijan that could be used as a means of pressure.

"The September 2023 anti-terrorist operation lasted only one day, even less. Thanks to the professionalism and heroism of the Azerbaijani army, it was possible to reach all strategic positions, complete the operation in the shortest possible time, and force the enemy army to surrender. Also, it put an end to the puppet regime they created on our lands 30 years ago. This regime fell, although it was illegal. Thus, we have restored historical justice. September 20, 2023 will remain in our history, just like November 8. After the Shusha operation on November 8, the backbone of the enemy army was broken, and a day later the enemy signed the act of surrender. On April 23, 2023, we fully restored our territorial integrity by taking control of the Azerbaijani-Armenian border in Lachin. On September 20, we fully restored our state sovereignty. Thus, the separatists were finished once and for all. There will be no more place for separatism in Azerbaijan. Today, the state of Azerbaijan controls the entire territory of the country thanks to our brave men standing on this square today and tens of thousands of Azerbaijani soldiers. We achieved this Victory at the cost of their blood and lives," Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said in his speech at the parade.

History of parades

Unlike the USSR, Azerbaijan does not have a tradition of annual military parades. Each ceremonial military march is both a sign of certain shifts in the military-political sphere and a political message. Baku has not hosted military parades since the military defeats of the 1990s. The situation changed on June 26, 2008, when Azerbaijan demonstrated its new army for the first time on the Azadliq (Freedom) Square, sending a clear message to both Yerevan and its external patrons that Baku advocated a peaceful settlement of the conflict, but reserved the right to a military solution. Most importantly, these were not only words, but also concrete work targeting the development of the National Army of Azerbaijan.

The next parade was held in 2011. This time Azerbaijan consciously demonstrated part of its military arsenal. The most far-sighted analysts in Yerevan alarmingly reported at that time that the Azerbaijani army had changed a lot since the 90s, also considering that Azerbaijan's military budget exceeded the state budget of Armenia. But they were not heard. In Armenia, they preferred to listen to those who assured, "it is not weapons, but people who fight", "the entire military budget of Azerbaijan will be spent on generals' datchas", etc. In 2013, Baku hosted yet another parade, showing new weapons. It was another message that Armenia did not want to hear and did not draw the necessary conclusions.

The turning point was the two parades held in 2018—on June 26 to mark the centenary of the National Army, and on September 15 to mark the centenary of Baku's liberation from the Bolsheviks and Dashnaks. It was not just another show of weapons. During the parade, Azerbaijan demonstrated the flags raised at Leletepe Height two years earlier. The April 2016 fights left no doubt that now the conflict had a military solution. As well, Azerbaijan and Türkiye enjoyed a new level of military co-operation and strategic partnership.

However, Armenia missed the message once again. As a result, they had to watch the Victory Parade on December 10, 2020 and the demonstration of Armenian military trophies.

The parade in Khankendi was held without the military aircraft and the latest weapons. Meanwhile, it outlined a new geopolitical layout. In September, the Azerbaijani army solved the most difficult task storming a natural mountain fortress, overcoming six defence lines, more than a million mines in 23 hours and 43 minutes. A real blitzkrieg of the 21st century. Now there are no hotbeds of conflict left in Azerbaijan, which can be used as a means of pressure on the country. There is no doubt that the Azerbaijani army is now a force to be reckoned with.

Diplomatic consequences of military success

The parade in Khankendi also means a completely new diplomatic situation for the peace talks between Baku and Yerevan. Azerbaijan's position on the truce is the same. Baku still wants to sign a peace agreement as soon as possible on the basis of five well-known principles. The most important among them is the principle of respect for borders and territorial integrity. There should be no mentioning of a special status for any region within Azerbaijan in the agreement. But the overall situation has changed.

Until 2020, the parties negotiated the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the occupied Azerbaijani districts around the former NKAO. That is why Yerevan hoped for receiving a status for the former oblast in exchange of territories. However, this status never implied independence, which Armenia was unwilling to accept. After the defeat in the Second Garabagh War, the situation changed. Armenia lost its bargaining chip. Azerbaijan had already offered its five principles. But Yerevan did not seem to be satisfied with them. Apparently, it was anticipating the restart of the separatist project. Initially it seemed that there were chances: the Lachin corridor was used as a public thoroughfare, 10,000 Armenian troops remained in Garabagh and the illegal junta was operating...

But now everything has changed. In April 2023, Azerbaijan established checkpoint in Lachin. In September, it put an end to the junta, with its former leaders being in one of the pre-trial detention centres in Baku.

All these factors fundamentally change the atmosphere of the talks both for Armenia and for the mediators. Azerbaijan's position has remained the same. But now Baku can wait until Armenia accepts Azerbaijan's terms.

Conversation without strangers

There have always been mediators in the Garabagh talks. It all started with the Minsk Group. After the war , it was Russia. Then, on Yerevan's initiative, the European Union platform appeared. The US was the next to join the club.

Today, the European initiative is dysfunctional because of Paris' implacable desire to help Armenia and become a mediator. Washington has never been fully involved in the project, while Yerevan refuses Moscow's involvement.

But most importantly, approaches to mediation have changed in Baku. Initially, Azerbaijan largely hoped that prestigious international organisations, as well as such influential powers as Russia, the US, and France would put pressure on Yerevan to make it withdraw its troops and settle the conflict peacefully. This did not happen. After the 44-day war, they still had a chance to put pressure on Armenia and force it to recognise the prevailing realities. But they failed to do so again. Meanwhile, the presence of mediators created a dangerous illusion in Yerevan: if they succeed in settling the issues with external players, they could force Azerbaijan to sign what was agreed with Yerevan. Obviously, this tactic was impossible even theoretically and therefore doomed to failure; same as the failure of the Kazan talks. But these illusions created difficulties on the negotiation track.

As a result, the number of people advocating talks without mediators is increasing in Azerbaijan. Also because Armenia realises now, after the military defeat, that it is Azerbaijan, not Russia or the EU, that it needs to talk with.

During his meeting with the Head of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly Pia Kauma in Baku on November 13, President Aliyev said that there were currently very good opportunities for a peace agenda in the region. He underlined that Azerbaijan was supporting sustainable peace in the South Caucasus, as well as the regional peace agenda, normalisation of relations and signing of a peace treaty with Armenia.

Let us remember the words of wisdom once uttered by First Vice-President of Azerbaijan Mehriban Aliyeva: "Some say that one should strive to win. But sometimes it is necessary to be able to lose. Sometimes it is much easier to put up with a failure than to accept someone else's success". That was her comment on the Eurovision. Ten years later, Armenia has yet to demonstrate the ability to put up with its own failure and Azerbaijan's success. Especially since the stakes in this situation are higher than during the song contest.