ESTABLISHING TRUST

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Greece on December 7 can go down in history as a watershed event in the development of relations between Ankara and Athens. The agreements reached during the visit give reason to believe that the Turkish-Greek dialogue, which has been very difficult and sometimes teetering on the brink of hostility, can be a serious opportunity to improve friendship, good-neighbourly relations and mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries.

Solidarity vs. controversy

The aggravation of Turkish-Greek relations in recent years is primarily related to the dispute over the status of islands in the eastern Aegean. They passed to Greece under the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne, which established the internationally recognised borders of the Republic of Türkiye. According to the international maritime law of that period, Greece's territorial waters are 6 nautical miles. However, Greece intends to extend its territorial waters off Crete and around islands in the Aegean Sea to 12 nautical miles, as stipulated in the modern UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. In such a case, Türkiye will practically close its access to the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas. Ankara therefore periodically threatens Athens with war without recognising the economic zone that Greece considers its own in the Aegean.

One of the dramatic situations occurred in the summer of 2020, when Turkish companies began to drill gas wells in the disputed waters of the Mediterranean Sea. Turkish and Greek ships effectively besieged each other in the Aegean Sea and the eastern Mediterranean. Similar incidents have significantly inflamed the situation. It even came to the point that last year Turkish President Erdogan declared Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis persona non grata.

Turkish-Greek relations began to warm up after the tragic events of February 2023. Greece was one of the first countries to send rescuers to help Türkiye, which suffered a devastating earthquake. Notably, before the meeting with Erdogan, Greek President Katerina Sakellaropoulou said that "a sense of solidarity unites two peoples who have recently been severely affected by natural disasters and have been helping each other." Meaning both nations overcoming the consequences of the earthquake in Türkiye and the fires and floods in Greece.

Steps taken by Ankara and Athens towards rapprochement already shows positive effects. One of them is President Erdogan's visit to Greece, the first in six years.

Landmark declaration

A key event during the visit was the signing of the Turkish-Greek Declaration of Friendship and Good Neighbourliness. According to it, "the parties will endeavour to settle any dispute arising between them by peaceful means, by direct consultations among themselves or by other means of their own choice, as provided for in the Charter of the United Nations". One of the most important points of the Athens declaration was the mutual commitment to refrain from any statements, initiatives and actions that could jeopardise the maintenance of peace and stability in the region. Türkiye and Greece agreed to implement confidence-building measures, even in the military sphere, in order to eliminate sources of tension and related risks.

It is symbolic that the Athens Declaration was signed 100 years after the Treaty of Lausanne, which defined, inter alia, the borders between Türkiye and Greece. In addition, the Türkiye-Greece High-Level Strategic Council met for the first time in seven years. The sides agreed to hold such meetings annually. By the way, Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis is scheduled to visit Türkiye in the spring of 2024.

President Erdogan's official visit to Greece resulted in the signing of 15 documents on co-operation in the fields of education, electricity interconnection (by Greek and Turkish electricity network operators), small and medium-sized businesses, investments, social services, tourism and sports.

One of the landmark outcomes of the Turkish-Greek talks held in Athens was also the setting of a goal to double the trade volume between the two countries to $10b over the next five years.

Desire to solve problems

In general, the successful visit of the Turkish President to Greece does not mean the absence of long-standing problems in bilateral relations. These include the Cyprus issue in the first place.

Ankara continues to insist on considering the existing state of affairs that determines the actual implementation of Turkish Cypriot statehood—the existence of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. That is, Türkiye advocates a final solution to the Cyprus issue on the basis of two states on the island - Greek and Turkish. However, Greece believes that the only solution to the problem may be the reunification of the island of Cyprus.

However, the Cyprus issue has not been among the most pressing issues on the Turkish-Greek agenda for a long time. The most serious point of disagreement at the moment is the delimitation of territorial waters and economic zones in the Aegean Sea. Especially since the parties can refer the issue of delimitation of the continental shelf in the Aegean Sea to the International Court of Justice.

However, Athens and Ankara confirmed their willingness to resolve the situation through dialogue. Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis expressed hope that the two countries would be able to overcome the differences. President Erdogan said that there was no problem that the two sides could not solve. "We are two neighbours that share the same sea, the same geographical location, the same climate and even the same culture in many areas. However, even between brothers there can be disagreements, just as there can be disagreements between neighbouring countries. This is normal. But the most important thing is the desire to resolve them."

Erdogan underlined that a good starting point to a peaceful future for both countries was possible if Greece adopted an approach similar to the Turkish one—staying free from external interference. He made it clear that to ensure further rapprochement between Türkiye and Greece, the latter should refuse to implement anti-Turkish steps provoked by certain Western powers. Primarily France, which is blatantly trying to use Greece to strengthen its influence in the Eastern Mediterranean without taking Türkiye's interests into account. In addition, the US is actively militarising the islands in the Aegean Sea in an attempt to strengthen its presence in the region and contain Türkiye's growing influence through Greece. Ankara expresses its dissatisfaction with the militarisation of the Aegean islands, which fundamentally contradicts the provisions of the Lausanne Treaty.

So it will be interesting to see what steps Greece will take to reduce tensions over the illegal militarisation of the islands. Expectations are optimistic since Prime Minister Mitsotakis considers "rapprochement on the definition of the continental shelf and the exclusive economic zone in the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean" possible.

Also, to Erdogan's call to "prevent drowning in the sea when crossing the river" and "letting the Aegean turn into a peaceful sea", Mitsotakis gave an equally vivid response: "As two captains, we should move in calm waters with a pleasant breeze."

No more tension?

Obviously, disagreements and confrontations between Türkiye and Greece have no strategic perspective given their allied status within NATO. Ankara and Athens have recognised this factor even during the most acute, conflictual moments of their recent history of relationship. At the same time, the tone of the current Turkish-Greek rapprochement has been set by Erdogan's policy of improving relations with the West, which he adopted after his re-election victory in May 2023. As part of this course, Ankara has reiterated its commitment to the goal of EU membership. Undoubtedly, rapprochement with Athens can seriously support the Western vector of Turkish foreign policy. Thus, at a joint press conference with Erdogan, Mitsotakis announced Greece's decision to support Türkiye's efforts to join the EU.

Another element of Erdogan's rapprochement with Greece through his new 'Western' policy is the harmonisation of actions on the issue of refugees from the Middle East. It was also reflected in the Declaration of Friendship and Good Neighbourliness signed in Athens. The topic has been a major irritant in Turkish-Greek relations for several years. Athens has accused Ankara of purposefully diverting migrant flows to Greek islands bordering Türkiye.

However, since the autumn of 2023, the Turkish Coast Guard has been intercepting tugboats carrying migrants in co-operation with the Greek Coast Guard. "As to migration, there has been a significant reduction in flows recently. This is the result of systematic protection of both maritime and land borders. This is also the result of much better co-operation between the police and the coast guards of our countries. This co-operation can and should be improved even further," Mitsotakis said.

Experts believe that in return for Türkiye's intensification of fight against illegal migration, Greece has agreed to grant Turkish citizens visas under a simplified procedure for holidays on ten Greek islands in the eastern part of the Aegean Sea. The agreement was another result of Erdogan's visit to Greece.

Meanwhile, Ankara has been demanding similar visa exemptions from the EU for several years as part of a major new agreement on refugees. According to Mitsotakis, the "island project" agreed upon by their countries can serve as a model for Türkiye and the EU to adopt a new large-scale decision on the migration issue.

Thus, Ankara and Athens made a serious bid for a thorough improvement of bilateral ties. Erdogan's confidence that "the Athens summit will open a new era in Greece-Türkiye relations" shows this clearly. Mitsotakis is of the same opinion: "I believe that we have reached the end of tense relations. The two neighbouring countries must act together. We have to create a beautiful future."

Judging by the efforts and optimism of both leaders, we should see the signs of the announced new era and beautiful future pretty soon.