FICTITIOUS DISASTER

Professional politicians and journalists often make regular statements, hold press conferences, issue press-releases and give interviews to create an information background, trying to focus the public attention. Something similar is taking place in Armenia with regards to ethnic Armenians from Garabagh. Telegram channels regularly announce fundraisers, while local political stars accuse the authorities of indifference to the fate of the Garabagh brothers...

Fictitious humanitarian catastrophe

Perhaps, it is worth mentioning one rather disgraceful circumstance. Despite the common piteous and sentimental descriptions of the Garabagh Armenians, they should not blame anyone else but themselves for the choice they made and its consequences today. And it is not only about the political responsibility for separatism, which, speaking frankly, is impossible to ignore.

No one has forcibly expelled the Armenians of Garabagh. It was not an ethnic cleansing, but a mass voluntary withdrawal instigated by the illegal junta, which was living out its last days.

"Leaving their homes was their own decision. Our public communication with the Armenians of Garabagh, as well as what we did afterwards showed that we wanted them to stay. We openly stated this. I also said that in my address to the Azerbaijani people right after the anti-terrorist operation. We opened an electronic portal for their registration. All those who want to return have the right to do so. Their property is properly protected. All historical and religious sites are properly protected. In order to return, they need to fulfil certain rules though. I stated this many months before the anti-terrorist operation. Those who want to stay need to apply for Azerbaijani citizenship. After all, how can people live in Azerbaijan while being the citizens of another country? They must have a citizenship, a work permit or a residence permit. They cannot live in Azerbaijan saying that they live in the so-called Nagorno-Garabagh Republic, because there is no such republic," President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev said in his interview with Euronews.

If some Armenians hate Azerbaijanis so much that they consider the citizenship of Azerbaijan impossible, thereby ready to flee and abandon their homes, churches and cross-stones, it is at least absurd to blame anyone but the Armenian political top brass. This, however, does not stop either Armenian politicians or Yerevan's external patrons. Especially in Europe, where they pompously throw alms hypocritically called humanitarian aid to the Garabagh people in front of the cameras. This raises understandable questions in Baku, which remembers the absolute indifference of the same states to the tragedy of Azerbaijani refugees, that is—the victims of real ethnic cleansing.

Despite lavish statements about sympathy for the Garabagh Armenians, neither Yerevan nor its close or distant patrons have a clear picture of what to do with them. Yerevan feels the most offended of realising that of all the possible options none is favourable in all respects.

Return impossible leave

The Civil Pact government already faced a similar problem back in November 2020, right after the 44-day war in Garabagh, when almost 1,500 people remained in Khankendi. Meanwhile, in Yerevan, Pashinyan's opponents stormed the parliament. His stay in power surprised many people at that time. At that time, Yerevan made great efforts to bring the Garabagh brothers back to Khankendi.

Today, Baku declares at all levels that it considers the Garabagh Armenians its own citizens, that they can return, obtain Azerbaijani citizenship, their political, cultural and religious rights will be protected, etc. But in any case it will be a return on Azerbaijan's terms.  It is unlikely to win Pashinyan any points in local politics. Especially amid Turkophobia in present-day Armenia. This strongly contradicts the statements such as "we will return to Artsakh and win". For the Armenian government, the Armenians of Garabagh resemble a classic hot potato, which is good to drop yet problematic to hold.

No more external support

Theoretically, the "unlucky Garabaghis" could be hosted by third countries. Especially those whose officials are loudly lamenting about them. It is possible that a considerable number of Garabagh Armenians would leave Armenia for good. The scale of emigration from the country is indeed catastrophic. The country is facing a serious demographic crisis. The Armenian population barely reaches three million, with no way to stop the decreasing dynamics. Armenian leaders, both previous and current, promise to solve the issue. But there is no actual work but promises. Moreover, the most qualified and promising personnel are leaving Armenia.

Currently, there is some revival in Armenia associated with Russian relocants. But experts warn that it will not last long. Plus, there are systemic problems in the Armenian economy.

So there is no one to willingly host the Armenians of Garabagh. Even the French authorities known for being Armenia's object of hopes, officially declared their refusal to host them. It turned out that the mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo could give spectacular poses in front of the trucks loaded with aid to 'Artsakh', but had absolutely no desire to see the 'Artsakh Armenians' on the streets of Paris. There are no signals or hints from Armenia's other partners, both old and new, either.

The Armenian diaspora is also silent. Apparently, after Armenia's defeat in Garabagh, the members of the diaspora have forgotten about the previous marathons of "national tribute" and are in no hurry to either host fellow Armenians from Garabagh or send them humanitarian aid. The saying "victory has many fathers, while defeat is always an orphan" has a special connotation as far as the Armenian realities are concerned. They try not to recall the losses in Garabagh, leaving the fellow Armenians on their own. And this means that it is the Armenian authorities that will have to deal with them in the first place.

Poor relatives or dangerous guests?

It is not difficult to guess that the fate of the Garabagh Armenians in Armenia was that of "poor relatives"—sympathised in words, with no one willing to deal with their problems closely. It is easy to make thunderous speeches at a parliament or a rally or to make similar calls to "defend the lands", successfully converting such "patriotism" into votes. But what about dealing with the settlement of the former Garabagh residents, including providing them with jobs, social payments, etc.?

For Nikol Pashinyan, the Garabagh Armenians are not poor relatives, rather very dangerous guests. Firstly, their arrival in Armenia is a live evidence of the defeat when Pashinyan was the head of the government and commander-in-chief. Secondly (and this is the most dangerous factor for the current prime minister), they represent the electorate of his most dangerous opponents from the Garabagh Clan. Yerevan understands this very well. They are already trying to somehow limit the political activity of the Garabaghis in Armenia. It is funny that during the occupation, the Yerevan authorities distributed Armenian passports to Garabaghis. But now they are announced invalid as a certificate of citizenship, and can be used as a travel document only. So the Garabagh residents will have to obtain Armenian citizenship again.

But is it only in elections that the "ticking Garabagh bomb" can explode?

Not only women, the elderly and children, but also the individuals with combat experience arrived in Armenia. Moreover, during the occupation, a solid infrastructure of terror had been created in Garabagh. We can only guess the number of "graduates" from VOMA and similar organisations currently in Armenia. Right after the 44-day war, Russian military reporters claimed that the foreign volunteers who fought on Armenia's side were in no hurry to leave Khankendi. Rather they hid their weapons, changed into civilian clothes and waited for their time. But they waited for Azerbaijan's anti-terrorist raid. The loud promises of Ruben Vardanyan to start a guerrilla war in Garabagh ended in nothing. But no one knows how many potential militants have moved from Garabagh to Armenia today.

Earlier, there have been numerous attempts to resolve political issues through terrorist attacks and assassinations. They do not like to talk about it very much in Yerevan, but almost every internal political shake-up in the city is accompanied by a series of political murders. Everyone remembers the October 27, 1999 incident, when five terrorists stormed the Armenian parliament and shot half of the country's leadership, including the speaker and the then prime minister of the country. As well as the seizure of a police precinct in Yerevan in the summer of 2016. So obviously, several thousand trained fighters from Garabagh in Armenia is a direct threat to the Armenian government, especially amid Armenia's geopolitical confrontation with Russia and the West. Moreover, the Pashinyan administration has lost the trust of both sides. In such a situation, external players will evaluate the most unexpected options to adjust the situation in Armenia. It would be interesting to know the role assigned to the armed contingent of the Garabagh Clan. But Yerevan has yet to answer this question.