2024: HOPES DIE LAST

The year 2023 was both eventful and challenging. The global landscape was marked by wars, natural disasters, a deteriorating system of international relations, emerging challenges, and consequently, rather bleak future predictions. A report released in early December by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London projected that 183 regional military conflicts would take place worldwide in 2023, the highest in three decades. The death toll in 2023 rose by 14% compared to the previous year, and violent incidents increased by 28%. The International Committee of the Red Cross reported that there were 459 dominant armed groUSat the local or regional level worldwide.

Ukraine

In Ukraine, the war persisted through 2023. Since the conflict's inception in February 2022, over 6.5 million Ukrainians have been displaced, and at least 10,000 civilians have lost their lives, according to the UN. Despite sUSantial Western military aid and extensive informational support, the Ukrainian army's counter-offensive has been less than successful. More people are advocating for a diplomatic end to the war. Meanwhile, many observers suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin is employing a "delay" strategy, assuming that the US will not prioritise Ukraine amidst the presidential race. Analytical studies indicate that the Russian-Ukrainian war is increasingly altering regional and global security and economic structures, the full effects of which are yet to be seen.

Israel-Gaza Strip

In October, the Arab-Israeli conflict unexpectedly escalated when the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched an unparalleled attack on Israel. The attack resulted in at least 1,200 Israeli casualties and over 200 hostages, including children and the elderly. Israel retaliated with extensive bombardments of the Gaza Strip and initiated ground operations on October 27, vowing to obliterate Hamas. The conflict has devastated almost the entire northern region of Gaza, causing over 20,000 fatalities, many of whom were children, and displacing nearly two million people. This conflict has sparked a rise in anti-Semitism globally, evidenced by significant anti-Semitic riots at the airport in the Russian city of Makhachkala on October 29. The war in the Gaza Strip could potentially trigger a broader confrontation in the Middle East.

In December, Yemeni Houthis started targeting Israeli-affiliated merchant ships in the Red Sea with rockets and drones. While Iran has strongly condemned Israel's actions, it has refrained from directly confronting its primary adversary in the Middle East. However, Washington alleges that Tehran is "deeply involved" in planning operations against commercial vessels in the Red Sea. This escalation threatens the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor and the expansion of the Abrahamic Accords. Moreover, the war between Israel and Hamas has exposed divisions among Arab countries and within the Islamic world.

From Wagner to Myanma

The year 2023 also witnessed a range of conflicts, riots, and protests, including the civil war in Myanmar, the Guyana-Venezuela crisis, riots in France following the murder of an Arab teenager in Nanterre, and riots in Dublin instigated by an attack on schoolchildren by an Algerian immigrant. Noteworthy events include the largest protests against judicial reform in Israel's history and an uprising in Russia in June by fighters of Yevgeny Prigozhin's private military company, Wagner. Experts suggest that a significant military convoy moving towards Moscow could potentially incite a civil conflict in Russia. Thanks to the intervention of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Prigozhin's convoy halted just a few hundred kilometres from Moscow. Two months later, a plane carrying the head of the PMC and his closest associates crashed in the Tver region.

Africa

In Africa, escalating poverty, ethnic tensions, environmental issues and social injustice are exacerbating the situation on the continent. In 2023, Africa saw a series of unrest in Niger, Gabon, and Congo. Conflicts between Somaliland's national army and the forces of the autonomous state of Khatumo resulted in hundreds of deaths and displaced tens of thousands. Approximately 100,000 of these individuals sought refuge in neighbouring Ethiopia, a country also grappling with ethnic conflicts. Sudan descended into a brutal civil war, displacing about 5 million people. In the fall, due to the disapproval of the current authorities and the populace, France withdrew its troops from its former colonies - Burkina Faso and Niger. It's worth noting that France had already withdrawn its military from Mali and the Central African Republic in 2022.

Demographic and environmental crises

The year 2023 witnessed numerous natural disasters. The most devastating were the February earthquakes in Syria and southeastern Türkiye (measuring 7.5 and 7.8 on the Richter scale), which resulted in nearly 56,000 fatalities. Approximately 105,000 buildings were damaged or destroyed, with economic losses estimated in the billions of dollars. Predictions of a major earthquake in Istanbul, one of the world's largest cities, are becoming increasingly common in Turkey. In September, Morocco experienced its most powerful recorded earthquakes, measuring between 6.8 and 7 on the Richter scale, in the Marrakech region. These tremors resulted in nearly 3,000 deaths and over 5,600 injuries.

The year 2023 was also one of the hottest years on record. Unusually high temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere began as early as April. Record-breaking annual temperatures were observed in northwestern Europe, North America, several Asian countries, eastern Australia, and Siberia. The warming of the Earth's atmosphere led to an increase in hurricanes, droughts, fires, and floods worldwide. Greece was hit by Hurricane Daniel, which subsequently wreaked havoc in Libya by destroying several dams, causing a large volume of water to flood the desert. This disaster resulted in over 7,000 deaths and left another 9,000 people missing. Greece and Canada also suffered severe forest fires, with over 18 million hectares of Canadian forest reduced to ashes and 200,000 people displaced. Fires in Hawaii transformed the paradise island into a living nightmare - in August, the tourist town of Lahaina on the island of Maui was completely burnt out, resulting in 97 fatalities. Intense fires also raged in Algeria, Sicily, and other countries.

In December, the 28th UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) took place in the UAE, where nations attempted to reach a consensus on reducing carbon dioxide emissions and transitioning to green technologies. However, progress has been slow. The 2024 climate conference will be held in Baku, Azerbaijan. As a country rich in oil and gas now striving to develop clean technologies, Azerbaijan may well be the site of a significant breakthrough in this globally important field. 

The explosion at the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant in Ukraine in June is among the most significant natural disasters of 2023, although it was a result of military conflict. The full extent of the consequences, including environmental impacts, will only be fully understood once the conflict has ended.

In 2023, India overtook China to become the country with the largest population, housing 1.43 billion people. The UN forecasts that by 2050, India's population will grow to 1.668 billion, while China's will decrease to approximately 1.317 billion.

A noteworthy event in 2023 was the World Health Organization's declaration of the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and the lifting of the public health emergency that was declared in January 2020. The pandemic lasted for 3 years, 1 month, and 24 days. However, the WHO cautioned that the virus is still present and remains a threat.

Space and AI

Concerns about geopolitical rivalries leading to the militarisation of space intensified in 2023. This is particularly alarming given the absence of regulations governing space operations and the growing involvement of private companies in space exploration. New global players are entering the space race. For instance, India successfully landed an unmanned rocket, Chandrayaan-3, in an unexplored region near the Moon's South Pole, a feat previously achieved only by the US, USSR, and China. On April 4, the European Space Agency launched the JUICE spacecraft to study Jupiter's satellites. The US also announced plans for a manned Moon mission in the coming years.

Artificial Intelligence (AI), including ChatGPT and others, became a significant cultural phenomenon in 2023. While AI was present before, it has now permeated various aspects of everyday life and is being utilized by individuals, governments, and corporations. This success has raised several questions about the potential benefits and risks of AI, such as whether it will lead to new opportunities and prosperity or result in mass unemployment, increased social inequality, and even a potential robot uprising. Jeffrey Hinton, one of the pioneers of AI, resigned from his position at Google to warn about the potential dangers of AI, a sentiment echoed by influential tech figures like Elon Musk.

US vs China

The US and China, the world's two most powerful countries, experienced a challenging year marked by high-level interactions and significant issues. This included a scandal involving a Chinese balloon over US territory that Washington identified as a reconnaissance aircraft, causing offense in Beijing. The US continued to impose trade restrictions on China, advocating for the latter to remain a regional military power and discouraging any thoughts of Taiwan. Tensions between Beijing and Washington are escalating due to technological competition and disputes surrounding countries impacted by Beijing's One Belt, One Road project. A meeting between Biden and Xi in November at the APEC-2023 Leaders' Forum in San Francisco did not result in any significant breakthroughs.

Elections in 2024

The year 2024 is set to be a record election year, with over 2 billion voters in 50 countries worldwide. These countries account for more than 40% of the global population and contribute significantly to the world's GDP. It is anticipated that such a large-scale, simultaneous, and diverse electoral process may trigger serious geopolitical and economic consequences, leading to further destabilisation on the global stage.

November will see the election of the 60th president of the United States. Considering what the previous elections were like, especially the storming of the Capitol, and the way the presidency of 81-year-old Joe Biden is going (low ratings, doubts about his full capacity, frequent reservations and scandalous statements, internal political struggle), the heat is expected to be high. More than 160 million Americans are registered to vote. Biden is seeking re-election for a second term, while former head of state Donald Trump, 77, hopes to return to the White House. Moreover, many believe that he may succeed. Although it is quite likely that a certain third candidate will take the seat in the Oval Office.

Presidential election in Russia will take place on March 15-17, 2024. The incumbent head of state, 71-year-old Vladimir Putin, is running as a self-nominated candidate. No one doubts Putin's re-election for a fifth presidential term, as he has no serious rivals, and the only question is how many votes he will eventually win. So this vote can safely be considered not an election, but a referendum, where the main question is the level of popular support for Putin.

Elections will also be held in India, one of the most important countries in Asia. Other countries with expected elections include in Mexico, South Africa, Taiwan, Indonesia, Pakistan, Moldova, Iran (which will be of great, at least regional importance), and in June in the European Union - more than 400 million voters from 27 countries will elect 720 members of the European Parliament.

Based on the planned electoral processes and the fact that many of the above events will continue, we cannot expect the year 2024 to be peaceful and calm. However, there is still hope that in the general global instability some ways will be found that can lead to at least some stability and even development.