NEW PAGE OF HISTORY

On December 21, 2023, there was a football match of the 1/8 finals of the Azerbaijan Cup between FC Garabagh and the Azerbaijan army's club MOIK played in the liberated city of Khankendi. The match took place on the same venue where the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan inaugurated the Pan-Armenian Games four years ago and declared that 'Garabagh was Armenia, full point.' Even Armenian experts like Zhirair Libaridian now recognise that it was this statement of Pashinyan that finally destroyed the negotiation process and made a new war in Garabagh inevitable. A war that Armenia lost. Twice.

In his keynote speech delivered at the Khankendi stadium, President Ilham Aliyev said: "Dear friends, four years ago, some people in this stadium said 'Garabagh is Armenia, full point.' We proved to them that Garabagh is Azerbaijan. Most of the occupied lands were liberated three years ago as a result of the Second Garabagh War. The Azerbaijani flag was raised in the town of Shusha, which is the crown of Garabagh. Three months ago, on September 19-20, Khankendi, Khojali, Askeran, Khojavand and Aghdara were liberated, too. On October 15, I raised the flag of Azerbaijan in all these cities. On November 8, the Victory Parade was held in the central square of Khankendi. And today we celebrate this wonderful sport holiday together."

The year 2023 will undoubtedly go down in history as the year of the final and complete restoration of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and state sovereignty within internationally recognised borders. The illegal junta in Khankendi ceased to exist, and on November 8, Victory Day, an Azerbaijani military parade was held in the main square of the city.

In diplomatic arena, a new negotiation mechanism was created, which makes it possible to hold direct negotiations without mediators, who instead of resolving the conflict tried to impose on the parties a version of the agreement that would allow them to continue to take advantage of the conflict. Perhaps never since the Second World War has the end of an alien aggression been so beautiful and so obvious.

And today we can analyse the truly grandmaster game played by the President of Azerbaijan, who skilfully combined diplomatic, political and military measures. His famous phrase—I know what to do, when to do and how to do it—has been confirmed again.

Fatal mistake of Pashinyan and Harutyunyan

It is not easy to indicate at the turning point that made a new power scenario in Garabagh inevitable. The 44-day war ended with Armenia's heaviest military and political defeat. T that time, most analysts warned that it was time to end the separatist project in Khankendi, as there were no chances left to materialise it.

Just as the Armenian leadership repeatedly missed the opportunity to reach an agreement with Azerbaijan without war, a chance for the peaceful reintegration of Garabagh Armenians after autumn 2020 was also missed. In Khankendi, they tried their best to keep the institutions of the occupation regime working. But the most important and most dangerous thing was that the 10,000-strong Armenian military remained in Garabagh. In September 2023, it became clear that Yerevan continued to keep in Garabagh more than a hundred tanks and other armoured vehicles, over two hundred heavy artillery units, including multiple missile launchers, dozens of electronic warfare systems and over two hundred mortar systems. Such a volume of weapons would simply be difficult to forget or lose, especially amid the acute shortage of armoured vehicles and weapons in Armenia after the 44-day war. So there is no doubt that the Yerevan administration was preparing for a forceful revenge. Azerbaijan has repeatedly voiced its concerns before the international community over the transportation of weapons and mines along the Lachin road in violation of all rules and obligations. Yet new conscripts had continued to be dispatched from Armenia to Garabagh....

Azerbaijan closes the ring, or the hallucinated blockade

It was expected that Azerbaijan would not tolerate a public thoroughfare regime in Garabagh forever. In 2022, in response to the attempt of the well-known provocateur oligarch Ruben Vardanyan to resume operation of the Gizilbulag and Demirli gold mines, civil activists organised protests on the Lachin-Shusha road. On April 23, 2023, Azerbaijan made its next move. An Azerbaijani border checkpoint appeared at the bridge over the Hakari River, Lachin. Thus, for the first time since the restoration of its independence, Azerbaijan took full control of its state border. Separatists and Yerevan immediately cried about blockade. Araik Harutyunyan, the then so-called President of Nagorno-Garabagh, screamed about a humanitarian catastrophe, mythical deaths from malnutrition, etc.

However, Azerbaijan did not create any obstacles to humanitarian and civilian cargo traffic to the area. Baku insisted that the cargo had to be properly documented. That is, they had to bear an indication that the destination point was Khankendi, Republic of Azerbaijan, not Stepanakert, NKR. If merchants from Yerevan or Khankendi did not want to make consignment notes properly, it was anything but a blockade.

Nevertheless, the issue of the non-existent blockade was promoted in Armenian and near-Armenian circles as much as possible. Social networks were teeming with tearful stories about empty store shelves, even though one could see food lying on the floor. Yet, there were ads of local restaurants, photos from parties, etc. in the same networks. But the provocateurs were unstoppable. A caravan with "humanitarian aid" was sent from Armenia to Garabagh, which, however, did not even attempt to pass the Lachin checkpoint. Trucks with aid from Armenia's friends in France also flashed by. Even Anne Hidalgo, the Mayor of Paris, posed in front of them for a photo. But for some reason no one was in a hurry to show the Azerbaijani border guards the relevant documents to proceed to Garabagh.

Armenia's attempts to push the issue of the mythical blockade of Garabagh to the international arena reached its peak in mid-August 2023, when a special session of the UN Security Council was convened at Yerevan's initiative. The meeting, however, ended in a deafening embarrassment for Armenian diplomacy. Azerbaijan's UN Permanent Representative Yashar Aliyev presented, among other things, materials from social networks, including photos from parties, restaurant adverts, etc.

A new strong move by Baku followed. The Azerbaijani Red Crescent Society sent a convoy of flour to Garabagh through the Aghdam-Khankendi road. Another truck, from the Russian Red Cross, also arrived in Azerbaijan. But at the instigation of Vardanyan, the separatists picketed behind the line of Russian peacekeeping posts and announced that they would not accept any aid coming through the Aghdam road.

The whole story of the blockade was turning into a cheap farce. If there was hunger and a humanitarian disaster in Khankendi, why refuse aid and block the road for food trucks? Just because that food was brought on the wrong road? Both Russian and Azerbaijani trucks were standing still in Barda as the crisis was dragging on. And the further it went, the fewer arguments there were in favour of the blockade.

From political provocation to terror

The situation changed completely in September 2023. Nikol Pashinyan made a special address to honour the independence day of Nagorno-Garabagh, which Baku saw as Armenia's departure from the agreements on recognising Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. Araik Harutyunyan then resigned as President of Nagorno-Garabagh, which was followed by yet another farce called the elections of a new president organised in Khankendi. As expected, Azerbaijan reacted to this as a clear provocation.

Further, an anti-tank mine went off on the Fuzuli-Shusha motorway under construction, killing two employees of Azeravtoyol. Then there was another explosion, claiming the lives of four more people, this time police officers. Azerbaijan immediately emphasised that the road had been completely cleared of mines before the incident. Eventually, the mines were laid by Armenian sabotage groups.

A few hours later, Azerbaijan launched local anti-terrorist measures. Baku did not tolerate the existence of a hornet's nest of terror on its territory. The anti-terrorist operation lasted less than 24 hours. The illegal junta capitulated. Armenia, with the help of its patrons, once again convened a special session of the UN Security Council, which ended in another disgrace for Armenian diplomacy. Firstly, by the time of the diplomatic hysteria, the hostilities had already ceased. And secondly, perhaps for the first time in the history of the UN, the Armenian Foreign Minister (Ararat Mirzoyan) was publicly caught in a lie, referring to a statement of his boss, Nikol Pashinyan.

The cost of Armenian offences

Events that followed are well known. After the second military defeat, Armenian authorities began to demonstrate their grievances against Russia and to seek intercession in the West. Whether this brought them the expected dividends is an open question. The West, especially Paris, was generous with expressions of concern about the fate of the Garabagh Armenians, promised to be close to Armenia, but did not provide real support. Moreover, the US had to make considerable efforts to wipe out the consequences of flirting with Armenia.

Finally, in the last days of the outgoing year, there was a short informal meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian on the sidelines of the CIS summit in St. Petersburg, which was also informal. As Pashinian's press service reported, the leaders discussed the peace agenda. The informal nature of the meeting seemed to exclude the signing of any documents, even a joint statement. But the very fact that the dialogue continued is a reason for optimism.

So in the end of the day, Yerevan has two options to choose from: either to sign a peace treaty on Azerbaijan's terms, or, succumbing to revanchist illusions, to provoke a new military scenario doomed to its defeat. Again.