ANY CHANCE?

Traditionally, the plate numbers of cars of foreign diplomatic missions accredited to Azerbaijan reflect the diplomatic history or the chronological order in which they were established in Azerbaijan. The Turkish embassy was the first to be set up in Baku, hence the plate numbers of cars used by the Turkish diplomatic mission begin with digits 001.

Interestingly, the second embassy to be established in Baku was that of France, the same country which is going through strained relations with Azerbaijan.

Looking back...

The initial phase of Azerbaijani-French relations was quite positive and promising. In 1993, national leader Heydar Aliyev was officially invited to France by then President of the Fifth Republic, François Mitterrand. In 1997, another visit took place at the invitation of Jacques Chirac.

In January 2004, President Ilham Aliyev made an official visit to France. Subsequently, French President Nicolas Sarkozy was received in Azerbaijan. The tradition was then followed by his successor François Hollande. Each of these visits was marked by business forums and contract signings - initially oil contracts, later shifting focus to the non-oil sector.

Although French Total was not initially included in the Contract of the Century, it made a substantial profit in the Absheron gas field. The state-owned Elf Aquitaine also operated in Azerbaijan. France supplied radar equipment for Azerbaijani airports under construction and modernisation. The first Azerbaijani satellite was launched into orbit from a French space centre. The list goes on.

Significant efforts were also made in humanitarian cooperation, with the Heydar Aliyev Foundation playing a major role. Restoration of the Strasbourg Cathedral, the Louvre, Versailles, historic churches in Normandy, Days of Azerbaijani Culture and Azerbaijani towns... This is not an exhaustive list.

France has also played an active role in mediating the resolution of the conflict over Garabagh between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Paris appointed one of the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group (MG). Unlike the US, it was represented in the MG by very capable diplomats. As a former US mediator admitted, "the State Department did not see this position as particularly career-enhancing. To be frank, it was usually occupied by a diplomat who was waiting for a full-fledged ambassadorial appointment or was about to retire soon."

There is a half-million Armenian community in France, which has very effective lobbying levers. But it seemed that Paris and Baku had found a way to build constructive relations despite the "Armenian factor". Thus, French President François Hollande, who went to Yerevan on April 24, 2015 to attend the events marking the centenary of the so-called Armenian genocide, considered it necessary to balance his trip with a visit to Baku.

Today, amid indecent pro-Armenian steps of Paris, it is hard to believe that quite recently relations between Paris and Baku were completely different. However, France, currently represented by Emmanuel Macron and his team, has essentially destroyed everything that had been built up over three decades. This is the readiness of Paris to disperse the most ridiculous fakes made in Armenia, accusations of Baku in all mortal sins, open statements against the territorial integrity of the country...

From great presidents to accountants and bookkeepers

Perhaps it is worth recalling François Mitterrand's famous phrase "I am the last of the great presidents. After me, only financiers and accountants will be in power. Emmanuel Macron fits this definition perfectly. And not only because he managed to work for the Rothschild banking empire for two years. Macron as a politician is frankly weak, but he has Napoleonic plans. The current master of the Elysee Palace intends, no less than nothing, to return France to its former political greatness. There were certain expectations placed on Armenia, with which France has special relations thanks to the Armenian community.

The courtship with Yerevan began on the eve of the 44-day war. Paris was under the impression that Armenia was led by a democratic leader who had risen to power as a result of a popular revolution, and sooner or later, it would bid farewell to Russia. In this scenario, France would have a faithful proxy in the South Caucasus with "the region's most capable army", which could be used to threaten Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and if necessary, Georgia.

However, Macron's Napoleonic plans are falling apart. In Africa, former French colonies are kicking out the French troops and shaking off Paris's dictates. It's tempting to blame everything on competitors, but the roots of the anti-French wave in its present-day colonies should be sought on the banks of the Seine, not the Volga, Yangtze or Caspian. In the 21st century, it's impossible to keep the people of overseas territories in check using the methods of the 19th-century.

Paris' plans for Armenia have also crumbled. A small, impoverished, rapidly depopulating Armenia with a shattered army is clearly not a proxy capable of achieving ambitious goals. While Paris believed that Armenia would do the dirty and dangerous work for France, Yerevan was convinced that Paris would be the one to solve their problems. Today, Macron can, of course, under the guise of a grand gesture, send Pashinyan deliberately outdated and ineffective armoured personnel carriers. But France is not even theoretically capable of providing Armenia with the support it received from Russia.

Nor can it effectively extricate Armenia from Moscow's sphere of influence. It is true that Yerevan makes loud anti-Russian gestures, but it doesn't go beyond that. Not a single agreement with Moscow has been revised. French gendarmes who arrive to join the EU observation mission are greeted at the airport not by Armenian but by Russian border guards. Armenia still has joint land forces and air defence forces with Russia. Armenian railways are under Russian concession management. Gas networks are owned by Russia. Electricity networks are in the pocket of an oligarch with an Armenian surname but a Russian passport. And there's little evidence of a real shift from Moscow to the West.

But France already has to deal with the consequences on the Azerbaijani front.

The costs

One can wonder what Paris was banking on. Perhaps they thought that Azerbaijan would try to smooth over the situation and would simply not risk openly opposing such a seemingly influential power as France. The level of political analysis in Paris is puzzling. Did they really think that Baku would silently swallow Ann Hidalgo's photo session in front of the trucks dispatching aid to "Artsakh" or the shameful buffoonery arranged by the city authorities of Evian with the renaming of the Azerbaijani Park. Either way, Paris miscalculated badly. The language of pressure does not work with Azerbaijan. As a result of flirting with Armenia, France has already dropped out of the list of mediators for the settlement of relations. Radar equipment for new airports in the liberated lands was not purchased from France. High-level diplomatic contacts have ceased. France's plans to sell warships to Azerbaijan are also in question.

Perhaps the most painful blow came from where Paris was not expecting it. Azerbaijan effectively uses such a platform as the Non-Aligned Movement and supports the anti-colonial movement in France's former and current colonies, primarily in New Caledonia.

Paris had nothing to reply to this. Of course, it's possible to label Azerbaijani journalists as spies and deny them entry into the country, only to face the exposure of the French intelligence network in Baku in return. But this is a separate issue, which doesn't alter the main point. In reality, there are no benefits from backing Armenia, and the cost of the issue turned out to be much higher than anticipated. Frankly, even a novice investment banker would prefer to offload toxic assets in such a situation. That is, to cease supporting Armenia at least at the current levels and attempt to normalise relations with Azerbaijan, the undisputed regional leader. At the very least, to try to salvage what's still possible and not ruin the game for the entire European Union.

But it seems Emmanuel Macron greatly needs the votes of French Armenians, despite his notable failures in foreign and domestic policy. It would also be beneficial to attract a certain portion of the ultra-right and xenophobic electorate away from Marine Le Pen and her National Front. So, Paris continues its flirting with Yerevan.

How long will this strategy, which can hardly be called politics, last? International law, political realities, and France's own interests, which are not confined to chasing Armenian votes in the upcoming elections, have not been abolished. Probably, in the current situation, we should simply wait for financiers and accountants to be replaced by truly professional and visionary politicians. The only question is how much the accountants with Napoleonic ambitions will accomplish in the meantime.