MIDDLE EASTERN PUZZLE

The political confrontation in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is escalating. The Israeli Prime Minister is under growing international pressure to finally agree to the creation of two states - one for Palestinians and one for Israelis - but the plan also faces strong resistance from the Jewish state's leaders.

A new take on an old idea

The US and the EU both support the two-state solution as the only way to end the conflict in Gaza. The US has its own interests in the Arab world, where many people sympathize with the Palestinian cause. The White House wants to assure its Arab allies that it respects their concerns. During his frequent visits to the region, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has reached a common understanding with the Arab partners on how to solve the Palestinian issue. Now the US is echoing the Arab perspective. With the presidential election approaching, the Biden administration hopes to unite all the major political forces within the Democratic Party behind a single candidate, including the influential advocates of the two-state idea. This is why the White House is increasingly endorsing this proposal as its official stance.

For the EU's political elites, the two-state solution is also a way to boost their popularity before the upcoming elections to the European Parliament. They have to deal with the growing influence of the Muslim diaspora and the rise of anti-Semitism in Europe. At the start of the conflict, most Europeans supported Israel, but as the civilian casualties in Gaza mounted and the pro-Palestinian lobby became more active in European countries, the public opinion shifted significantly.

However, despite the mounting pressure from both the US and the EU, on January 18, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the two-state solution and told both the Americans and the Europeans that he would not accept a Palestinian state after the conflict was over. He also vowed to continue the assault on Gaza "until complete victory".

This provoked a strong reaction from the EU leadership. The next day, the EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell called for an external intervention to impose a settlement of the conflict in the Middle East based on the principle of coexistence of the Israeli and Palestinian states. He also accused Israel of "creating" and "funding" the Hamas terrorist group. "We believe that a two-state solution must be imposed from the outside to bring peace," he said in a speech at a university in the Spanish city of Valladolid. In other words, he suggested that Israel's opinion could be ignored.

On January 22, Brussels asked the EU member states to define for Israel "the consequences they think would be linked to their participation or non-cooperation" with their proposed peace plan for the Gaza conflict.

The EU's demands in the document include "an independent Palestinian state living in peace and security with Israel, with full normalization and significant development of security and economic cooperation".

Washington defending Tel Aviv

Meanwhile, the US has responded rather mildly to Netanyahu's rejection of the Palestinian state, which can be seen as a sign of their willingness to maintain good relations with Tel Aviv and their tacit support for the Israeli position.

Trying to defend the Israeli leader, Biden told reporters that Netanyahu is "not against all two-state solutions, and there are several possible options." One possible condition is the complete demilitarization of Palestine, along with the formal recognition of a Palestinian state. The American president also noted that some UN members do not have armed forces. The Americans seem determined to stand by their ally and offer all the necessary support, using every opportunity.

The United States and Israel are on the same side of the traditional barricades in the Middle East war. And as long as this war goes on, all other decisions made in Washington will follow this logic.

Both Washington and Tel Aviv expect the war in Gaza to last for several more months. Some estimates suggest that it could continue until the end of the year, but with diminishing intensity. Meanwhile, the White House anticipates that a new phase of hostilities will begin soon - the number of airstrikes will decrease and the Israeli army will concentrate on ground operations. It is interesting that while the Israeli army has intensified its actions in the south of the Strip, near the town of Khan Younis, there are reports of small Hamas groups sneaking into northern Gaza, where they keep fighting in areas that were supposed to be cleared of militants.

This complicates the progress of the military campaign and indicates that its duration does not depend on how much Gaza has been cleared. Even controlling the whole Strip does not mean the end of the war as such. This is also shown by the escalation of violence in other parts of the "Great Middle East War". As the solution to the main, or the core, issue of the Middle East agenda has not been found yet and is being complicated by new developments, the forces opposing Israel are signaling that they will not lower the intensity of their actions.

From the Houthis to Hezbollah

The war in the Red Sea has reignited with new force. The US and British airstrikes on the Houthis' positions have not improved the security of shipping in the region much. The Yemenis are prepared for another Western attack.

According to experts, bombing the Houthi positions is ineffective because their groups are very mobile and the missiles they use, which can hit targets in the Red Sea, are very cheap. On the other hand, the US and its allies use more expensive weapons and incur high costs in conducting operations. Moreover, the war in the Red Sea distracts the United States' attention and resources from more important goals and objectives in the region.

With more than 75 per cent of Yemenis relying on external aid for their survival due to the economic crisis caused by the civil war, the collapse of the local currency and the restrictions on imports and trade with foreign countries, the Houthis are not only trying to continue the war with superior forces, but also to achieve their goals. At least the current ones.

Adding to the tension and uncertainty is the fact that the Houthis are using a new tactic, namely, the mining of the sea area. This raises the issue of mine clearance, as well as the root cause of the problem.

To divert Washington's attention, Iran is stirring up the situation in Syria and Iraq, where forces it supports are attacking US military bases. In response, the US is launching airstrikes against Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, and Israel has increased its actions against pro-Iranian forces in Syria.

The situation has become so critical that even the Russian Foreign Ministry has openly warned Tel Aviv that if the escalation in Syria persists, that country could get directly involved in the conflict with Israel. Moscow is probably worried not only or not so much about Iran's position in Syria, but about its own military infrastructure, which could also be a target of the Israeli military, as it has already happened.

Moreover, military analysts still think that a war between Israel and another major regional force, Hezbollah, is quite likely. And it seems very probable that this could happen right after the end of military operations in Gaza. This would enable Israel to shift its attention to eliminating its second threat. In the war with Hezbollah, Tel Aviv can count on the full support of the United States, for which the group is also one of the key potential targets in the region.

It is worth noting that Israel has started to apply the same tactics against Hezbollah as it did against Hamas leaders. For example, on January 8, a drone strike in southern Lebanon killed Wissam al-Tawil, the commander of Radwan, Hezbollah's sabotage unit. Lebanese sources reported that he played a "major role in overseeing operations" of the group in the south.

The next day, a missile strike targeted the commander of Hezbollah's drone squads, Ali Hussein Barji. The senior military official was allegedly killed three hours after his drones tried to attack the IDF Northern Command headquarters in Safed.

To conclude, we can mention that Israel has begun urgent purchases of weapons from the US because of a possible war in Lebanon. According to Israel's Channel 12 TV, a delegation from the Israeli Defence Ministry went to Washington to sign a contract with the Pentagon for the purchase of F-35 fighter-bombers, F-15 multi-role fighters, attack helicopters and thousands of weapons and ammunition.

Analysts concede that soon the Israeli army will have to participate in hostilities on several fronts. This means that peace in the Middle East is, unfortunately, not expected.